Adidas shares unexpectedly jumped 4%. What affected them?

Quotes of German Adidas rose sharply in trading in Germany on September 3. Investors ignored the downgrade of target benchmarks from JPMorgan Chase and Jefferies for securities of the largest manufacturer of sportswear in Europe and focused on positive recommendations. For example, the same Jefferies, paradoxically, simultaneously upgraded the rating of shares and now advises to buy them.

Adidas shares soared by 4.5% on the German stock exchange Xetra. The Handelsblatt and Investing.com publications linked the jump in quotations to the market reaction to the upgrade of the company's securities rating by the investment bank Jefferies from Hold (advice to hold) to Buy (recommendation to buy). Although in parallel the bank lowered the target price from €250 to €220 per paper, its new target still implies a 34% growth potential compared to the last closing price of €164.1.

The upgrade follows a period of decline in Adidas shares, sparked by concerns that the market was close to saturation with the Terrace line of retro sneakers that had been driving sales. Jefferies said those concerns were exaggerated and pointed to positive momentum in the casual apparel, running goods and soccer equipment segments, Investing.com wrote. The investment bank called Adidas' focus on the World Cup-2026 the main driver of growth and emphasized that in the context of the trade war and a weaker dollar, the company is in an advantageous position compared to competitors: the share of its sales in the U.S. market is smaller, and with suppliers it pays just in dollars.

In turn, JPMorgan lowered the target price of Adidas shares from €250 to €236, but maintained its Overweight rating ("above market", consistent with a buy recommendation). Wall Street's largest investment bank has placed Adidas shares on its Positive Catalyst Watch list for the release of its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29. The bank expects the report could be a catalyst for the stock to reprice as management gains more clarity on its order book and could boost investor confidence in its margin outlook, according to Investing.com.

In late July, Adidas shares suffered their second biggest drop in five years, losing about 11% of their value in one day. The reason for the sell-off was Adidas' warning during the second quarter results report about "uncertainty about business development" due to the trade conflict with the United States.

In the second quarter, Adidas increased comparable revenues by 12% to almost €6 billion. Net income rose by more than three quarters to €375 million. Nevertheless, the head of the company Bjorn Gulden refrained from raising the forecast. Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane said at the time: "The company has fallen into the trap of 'conservative forecasts', when investors do not believe [cautious] estimates and raise the bar of expectations too high".

While global players TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan lowered their target price on Adidas shares, analysts at German investment firms remained optimistic: after the second quarter report, Baader Bank and M.M. Warburg reiterated their target and buy recommendations, and Deutsche Bank's Cochrane even raised his target from €270 to €280 per share. Felix Dennl of Bankhaus Metzler expected Adidas to deliver the strongest earnings growth in the industry. The stock is his "top pick" with a target price of €274, Handelsblatt wrote.

On average, stock exchange experts are a bit more reserved. As calculated by MarketScreener based on the recommendations of 28 analysts, the average target price of Adidas securities is now €241.5 per share with a consensus rating of Overweight.

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