Analyst warns of risks of SpaceX IPO disruption

Before Elon Musk's space company SpaceX floats on the U.S. stock exchange, which could happen as early as June, it will have several rocket test launches on its schedule, sources told Bloomberg. Failures in the tests could jeopardize the IPO, said PitchBook senior analyst Franco Granda.

"If at least one of these two launches fails, there is a possibility that the IPO may not happen at all," he told the agency. - This is what will determine the further movement of all participants towards listing".

With all the uncertainty of the outcome of the upcoming launches, SpaceX still needs to prove that it really does meet the increased valuation of $2 trillion, notes Bloomberg. Earlier, this was the figure voiced by his sources, but Musk himself, apparently, was skeptical of it: in a post on social network X, he wrote: "Don't believe everything you read," mentioning the agency.

SpaceX representatives and investment bankers are going to hold meetings to "test the strength" of SpaceX's valuation, Bloomberg's interlocutors said. This is an important step on the way to the largest initial public offering in history: a SpaceX listing could raise as much as $75 billion, the agency wrote. The company had planned to set up a call with an expanded banking syndicate on Monday, April 6, and a briefing for analysts later this month, a Bloomberg source said. The outcome of those meetings may depend on whether Musk succeeds in focusing investors' attention on the company's vision rather than its financials, the agency warned.

SpaceX representatives did not respond to his request for comment.

"The key is to convince investors of the company's future potential. And no one does that better than Elon Musk: he knows how to 'sell the dream' - that is, convince the market of the business's massive future," David Erickson, a freelance associate professor at Columbia Business School and former co-chair of global equity capital markets at Barclays, told Bloomberg.

The $2 trillion valuation implies that the P/S (price to sales) multiple, which reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each $1 of SpaceX's revenue, exceeds 100. This is much higher than the corresponding ratio of the most highly valued member of the S&P 500 - Palantir Technologies, notes Bloomberg. The P/S of this company is 79.

Last week, SpaceX confidentially sent a draft of its IPO registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. Such a filing allows companies to get feedback from the regulator and make changes before public disclosure.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor