Battle of the monsters: Pokémon vs. Labubu - who is more attractive to investors?

Investments in Pokémon cards have yielded a 3,821% return since 2004, and shares in Pop Mart, the maker of Labubu toys, have soared 200% in just a few months in 2025. But both iconic monster markets raise the question: Is there a bubble here?

The Pokémon card game appeared in 1996 in Japan as a continuation of the franchise from Nintendo. Players used cards depicting various Pokémon with unique abilities to battle against opponents.

It was originally a way to expand the video game universe, but the collectible element quickly spawned a market of its own. Rare cards sold for incredible prices: for example, a holographic first edition Charizard card sold at auction for over $300k, 100,000% above the original price. Social media, celebrity collectors and the nostalgia of the generation that grew up with the franchise also played an important role in popularizing the market and expanding its reach. Demand for Pokémon cards increased particularly sharply during milestone celebrations, game releases and cultural events such as the launch of PokémonGO.

Professional services that evaluate the authenticity and quality of cards have even appeared in the market, which has increased trust in the market and created a premium pricing system. And online marketplaces and auctions have promoted trade and investment in the market, turning Pokemon cards not only into a gaming accessory, but also into a valuable collectible and investment asset.

The symbol of the transformation of the "children's" franchise into an element of the luxury market was the collaboration with Tiffany & Co - in 2023, the brand presented a collection created in collaboration with artist Daniel Arsham: pendants in the form of Charmander, Schuirtle or Jigglypuff cost about $1.3 thousand, and a special 18-carat gold Pikachu in the signature blue Poké Ball was valued at $9.9 thousand for a small size and up to $29 thousand for a large one. They could only be purchased within 24 hours.

According to analytics firm Card Ladder, investments in Pokémon cards since 2004 have produced a compound monthly index return of 3821%, a multiple of traditional instruments. By comparison, the S&P 500 index has gained 483% over the same period. Over the past year, the average value of Pokémon cards has risen nearly 46%, outpacing Nvidia's 31.5% increase.

The market for Pokémon cards is unregulated, making it extremely risky and speculative: the value depends on collector demand and can change dramatically depending on trends and the rarity of individual pieces.

Criminal groups, including Japanese crime syndicates such as the Yakuza, use the high value, small size and ease of transportation of rare Pokémon cards to convert illicit funds into legitimate assets. They buy valuable cards for cash using illegally obtained funds and then sell or transport them for sale domestically or abroad, passing the money off as legitimate income.

In addition, some criminals artificially inflate card prices through bogus transactions and social media advertising to facilitate the resale of cards at higher prices, completing the money laundering cycle. This practice has also led to an increase in the theft of valuable Pokémon cards.

Pokémon cards are one of the most lucrative, but also one of the riskiest alternative assets. The high returns are offset by a lack of regulation and significant price fluctuations, making such investments suitable only for investors who are willing to take higher risks and have in-depth knowledge of the market.

Labubu are collectible plush toys with recognizable designs and an element of randomness when purchased (they are sold in surprise boxes), which was the catalyst for mass interest and a social phenomenon.

Viral spread on social media and celebrity endorsements have given the brand record popularity.

The company reported a 397% increase in earnings attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025. From the beginning of the year to August 24, when the securities reached their peak, the shares have risen 278%

But by September, the excitement began to subside. The secondary market collapsed: full sets of Labubu third generation fell in price from 1,380 yuan to 600-700 yuan, rare figures - from 10 thousand to less than 1 thousand yuan. Mini-sets, which were resold at 40 times the price at the start, lost up to 30% of their value in just a few weeks.

The market showed classic bubble dynamics: rapid growth amid limited supply and a sharp drop after saturation.

Collectibles markets are reminiscent of the story of the NFT, which collapsed 80% in two years. But unlike digital tokens, Pokémon and Labubu have "tangibility" and already even cultural value. This makes them more resilient, but no less risky.

The collectible card market was valued at $21.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $58.2 billion by 2034, it will grow at an average annual rate of 13%, Market Deciper predicts.

With Labubu, the outlook is not so long-term: on a 12-month horizon, according to Oninvest's database, Pop Mart's stock has a potential upside of 35%.

In September, JPMorgan downgraded the company from "above market" (consistent with a "buy" recommendation) to neutral, and lowered its target price from HK$400 to HK$300 (from $51.4 to $38.6).

"We believe the price (of Pop Mart shares - Oninvest) has an ideal scenario built into it, and any even minor deviation of fundamentals for the worse from market expectations or negative media coverage - such as reports of price cuts in the secondary market or third-party brand licensing issues - could lead to a price correction," Bloomberg quoted JPMorgan as saying in a research note.

Toys and cards have become investments with fabulous returns - and an equally high probability of collapse.

We can confidently say that the main function of these markets - to generate income for companies, bringing joy to people, far outweighs all the negative components of their use as financial instruments.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor