Beneficiaries of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Commodity Supercycle

Robots, artificial intelligence, and automation no longer exist only in code. They consume electricity, metals, and fuel. AI has become a new, very voracious consumer of raw materials, comparable in scale to entire industries. This triggers a commodity supercycle and redistributes capital in favor of those who control the basic resources of the new economy. Vitaly Kononov, an analyst at Freedom Broker's commodities sector, named the new beneficiaries of this supercycle.

Copper is a basic material for electricity transmission, making it the main beneficiary of the new technological paradigm and an important raw material for electric vehicles and data center construction.

Electric vehicles contain 3–4 times more copper than cars with internal combustion engines. The growth in global EV sales and the development of charging networks continue to systematically increase demand. Global investment in networks exceeds $350 billion per year and is growing at an accelerated pace. Every additional 1,000 km of high-voltage power lines represents 20–25 thousand tons of copper.

The global copper market—approximately 27 million tons per year—is already entering a phase of structural deficit. The market has faced unprecedented supply disruptions, and the problem is unlikely to be resolved in 2026. Due to problems at the El Teniente (Codelco), Kakula (Ivanhoe/Zijin), and Grasberg (Freeport) mines, we estimate that the deficit in 2026 will exceed 6% of global supply. In addition, China's plans to bring in about 2 million tons of new smelting capacity have been put on hold, and current production in 2026 will drop by more than 10% year-on-year amid persistently tight copper concentrate supply.

In turn, hyperscalers consume 30–50% more copper per server rack than traditional servers. Microsoft and Google alone plan to increase the combined capacity of their data centers by 30–40 GW by 2030, which is equivalent to 300–400 thousand tons of additional demand.

At the same time, the copper content in ore has decreased from 5% to less than 1% over the past 30 years. The average time to obtain mining permits has increased from 3 to 8 years, and ESG restrictions are creating a long-term structural deficit, which increases price elasticity during periods of high demand.

According to estimates by major producers—BHP, Rio, Anglo American, and Glencore—the gap between supply and demand could reach 5–6 million tons by 2035 if no new projects are launched, while the current pipeline lags behind demand.

According to our forecasts, in 2026, the price may increase by 14% relative to the average price in 2025 and approach the $6 per pound mark.

Aluminum benefits from growing demand for lightweight, energy-efficient materials and improvements in the energy efficiency of technologies. It is a cheaper alternative to copper and is often used as a substitute in power lines, especially high-voltage power lines. Solar panels are another area where aluminum is used.

Lightweight aluminum makes it ideal for reducing the weight of electric vehicle batteries and bodies for all cars.

Data centers require hundreds of thousands of tons of aluminum structures and cooling components. By 2030, this segment could generate an additional 2–3 million tons of demand.

The global aluminum market is approximately 70 million tons, and the industry remains extremely energy-intensive, with electricity accounting for up to 40% of production costs. Aluminum is essentially becoming a technological metal, and its share in the electricity and data value chains will continue to grow.

According to data from the end of 2024, approximately 60% of production is concentrated in China, where smelting plants are already operating at full capacity of the declared 45 million tons per year. Western countries are seeking to diversify supplies as part of their supply chain security strategies.

Rare earth metals (REM) are perhaps the main beneficiaries of the AI race. They are essential for the performance of high-efficiency magnets, motors, and sensors. All of these are used in electric motors, data centers, chip manufacturing, robotics, and military applications.

In the summer, the Pentagon signed contracts to supply more than 30,000 kg of rare earth metals (equivalent to 10% of the global volume) over a period of 2–3 years with Critical Metals Corp, MP Materials, and the start-up Vulcan Elements. The key news was the Pentagon's investment in MP Materials, with the US Department of Defense becoming the company's largest shareholder — shares rose 50% on this news. In addition, a minimum price of $110 per kilogram of NdPr was set. Apple also announced an agreement with the company to supply magnets worth $500 million. MP Materials is building the first plant in the US that will be able to produce more than 10,000 tons of rare earth magnets by 2028.

The global market for rare earth metals is estimated at only ~300–350 thousand tons, but their economic significance is incomparably higher, especially in the context of the trade war between the US and China. China controls 60–70% of production and 85–90% of processing. Any export quota or restriction imposed by China leads to shocks in the electronics and energy supply chains. In the fall, Beijing expanded export controls on rare earth elements and related technologies. Beijing and Washington have agreed to a truce in the trade war on this front, but only for a year.

Silver is a critical material for solar power generation and high-precision electronics. Solar panels account for up to 15–20% of global silver demand. Another 30% is used in electronics: contacts, connectors, sensors, including those for AI servers and telecommunications infrastructure. Growth in investment in data centers could add up to 30 million ounces of silver demand over five years. Among other things, silver is a dual-purpose metal. It remains in demand in the jewelry industry, and rising gold prices are supporting other metals, including silver.

The current market is approximately 1 billion ounces per year, with a deficit that has persisted for the last three years and is expected to continue in the future.

The growth of AI and digital capabilities is increasing global energy consumption, which will require huge investments in energy. This supports traditional energy sources such as gas and coal, as well as interest in uranium, although the implementation of this trend will be more long-term.

— Gas. Rapidly growing electricity consumption supports demand for gas-fired power plants as a flexible source of base load power. In addition, gas remains a key resource for the production of ammonia and fertilizers. The global market exceeds 4 trillion cubic meters. Gas provides flexibility to the power system, covers peak loads, and balances renewable energy sources. However, for the same reason, prices are more volatile than for other energy resources and depend more on seasonal demand factors than on structural changes.

— Coal. In developing economies, coal still accounts for a significant portion of generation. Growth in demand due to digitalization and slow capacity replacement are supporting demand in Asia. The sector is also supported by restrictions on coal production in China and Indonesia, two key exporting countries. The Trump administration has implemented one of the most significant support packages for the coal industry in decades.

— Uranium. Nuclear energy is experiencing a renaissance thanks to increased consumption by AI infrastructure and the emergence of small modular reactors (SMRs). The price increase to $100/lb in 2025 reflects a chronic supply shortage. More than 60 new reactors are under construction in addition to 440 active ones, and the US and Europe are extending the service life of older units. SMR projects are strengthening long-term demand. Uranium differs from most commodities in that it lacks transparent exchange trading.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor