Eli Lilly predicted revenue growth of 27% in 2026. Why is it better than Novo Nordisk?

American pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly has presented an optimistic sales forecast for 2026 on the back of steady demand for weight loss drugs, consolidating its leadership position in this market, Bloomberg writes. Eli Lilly's expectations contrast sharply with the estimates of its Danish rival Novo Nordisk, which warned investors that its sales this year may, on the contrary, significantly decrease.

Eli Lilly expects its annual revenue to be between $80 billion and $83 billion, better than Wall Street's average estimate of $77.7 billion, Bloomberg noted. The company expects revenue in 2026 to increase about 23% to 27% over 2025.

Lilly expects adjusted earnings in 2026 to be in the range of $33.5 to $35 per share. Analysts predicted $33.08 per share, Bloomberg reports.

Eli Lilly shares jumped 10% immediately after the start of trading on February 4. Over the last 12 months they have added more than 27%. Novo Nordisk shares in the U.S. were down 4.7% in the first minutes after the stock exchanges opened, after they plummeted 14.6% a day earlier due to a warning about a 5-13% drop in sales.

The drugmaker expects the market for obesity drugs to continue to grow this year after the Donald Trump administration agreed to expand coverage of such drugs to more patients under Medicare, the government health insurance program for the elderly, Bloomberg writes.

Eli Lilly is also awaiting approval for its weight-loss pill, which could come in April. Novo is ahead of it and has already successfully launched a similar drug in tablet form.

Lilly is in a relatively stronger position than Novo, as its flagship diabetes drugs Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound will retain patent protection for about another decade, Bloomberg notes. Lilly has also been more aggressive in cracking down on unauthorized copies, including drugs sold through telemedicine services. At the same time, Novo drugs in a number of countries may face competition from generics already this year due to earlier patent expiration, the agency notes.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, sales of the flagship injectable weight loss drug Zepbound amounted to $4.3 billion against analysts' expectations of $3.8 billion, Bloomberg writes. Revenue from the diabetes drug Mounjaro reached $7.4 billion against analysts' forecast of $6.7 billion. Mounjaro is gaining popularity outside the U.S., where sales totaled $3.3 billion, the agency notes.

Overall, Lilly's quarterly revenue rose 43% to $19.3 billion, exceeding analysts' average estimate of $18 billion. The company's earnings totaled $7.5 per share, also exceeding analysts' expectations of $6.7 per share, Bloomberg reports.

About half of the analysts tracking Eli Lilly stock recommend buying the security. According to MarketScreener data, they have 17 Buy ratings and four Outperform ratings out of 39 total. Another seven are Hold (advising to hold) and one is Underperform (matching the recommendation to sell). Analysts' average target price is 14.7% above the last closing level.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor