Exxon Mobil forecasts $500 mln growth in quarterly refining profits

The US Exxon Mobil announced that the margins of its hydrocarbon refining business recovered in the third quarter. The company expects that this will add several hundred million dollars to its quarterly profit. Exxon is the first among oil supermajors to publish a quarterly report and will thus set a trend for the entire sector.

Profit growth at Exxon Mobil's fuels division - the largest among its oil major rivals - will add between $300 million and $700 million to overall company-wide earnings in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, the oil giant said in a filing to the regulator. The company also expects a modest addition - between $100 million and $300 million - thanks to margin expansion in its chemicals division.

Exxon Mobil estimates that changes in oil prices in the third quarter could affect the company's E&P earnings in the range of -$100 million to +$300 million, while the incremental effect of gas price movements would be in the range of -$200 million to +$200 million.

Exxon Mobil also recorded a one-time loss of about $500 million related to restructuring costs. Last week, the company announced plans to cut about 2,000 jobs worldwide as part of the consolidation of smaller offices into regional centers. The bulk of the cuts will be in Europe and Canada.

Exxon Mobil is the first of the largest oil companies to publish its quarterly profit forecast and often sets the trend for trading in the entire oil and gas sector, Bloomberg writes. The summer automobile season in the U.S. traditionally contributes to the growth of oil refining profitability. However, in this case it is noteworthy that in the third quarter this factor significantly surpassed the impact of fluctuations in oil and gas prices, Bloomberg notes.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Phillip Jungwirth expects structural cost savings to be a positive factor, but its effect could be offset by rising costs, Reuters reports.

Shares of Exxon Mobil fell by 0.3% at the end of extended trading on October 6. The main session that day ended with growth by 0.83%.

Exxon Mobil will release its final quarterly results on October 31. LSEG's consensus forecast calls for adjusted earnings per share of $1.79 for the third quarter. In the same quarter of 2024, Exxon Mobil posted $1.92 earnings per share on the back of record oil production in the last 40 years.

American supermajor Chevron will publish its quarterly report on October 31. Exxon Mobil's European competitors - French oil giant TotalEnergies and British BP - will disclose their quarterly financial results on October 30 and November 4, respectively.

Exxon Mobil shares have gained 6.2% since the beginning of 2025. They lag behind the main U.S. stock index S&P 500: it added 14.6% in 2025.

Exxon Mobil securities have a total of 30 ratings from analysts, and opinions are almost equally divided: 15 advise to hold the stock (Hold), 14 - to buy (Buy and Overweight), MarketWatch shows. And over the past month, there are two more recommendations to hold and two fewer to buy. Another analyst thinks it's better to sell the stock (Sell).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor