Ford reported its strongest profit deviation from forecast since 2021. What about the stock?

American automaker Ford Motor reported quarterly earnings, whose deviation from Wall Street expectations was the strongest since 2021. At the same time, the company gave an optimistic outlook for 2026, counting on a recovery in operating performance. The automaker's shares rose within 1% in extended trading on Feb. 10 after the reports were released.

Ford reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.13 versus $0.19 in Wall Street's forecast. The 32% deviation in EPS from consensus estimates was Ford's first miss since 2024 and the largest since the fourth quarter of 2021, when the divergence was 42%, CNBC noted.

Ford's revenue from the automotive segment in the last quarter of 2025 amounted to $42.4 billion. Analysts, according to LSEG, expected $41.83 billion, writes CNBC. Total revenue fell 5% year-on-year to $45.9 billion. Ford's net loss for the fourth quarter was $11.1 billion, or $2.77 per share, compared to net income of $1.8 billion for the same period in 2024. The company attributed the decline in profit primarily to an unexpected duty expense of about $900 million related to the fact that tax incentives on auto components went into effect later than expected.

Ford CFO Sherry House said the weak results were also affected by the aftermath of a fire at aluminum supplier Novelis' plant in New York state, which is now not expected to reach full capacity until the middle of this year. That plant supplies aluminum for the production of F-Series pickup trucks, one of Ford's most profitable products, CNBC noted. According to House, the Novelis plant fire cost Ford $2 billion in losses in the second half of the year.

Shares of Ford in the extended trading after the publication of the reports rose in price by about 0.6%. The main session on Tuesday, February 10, ended with a slight decline of 0.15% to $13.57.

Along with the weak fourth-quarter 2025 results, Ford gave a good forecast for the full year 2026. It includes adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the range of $8 billion to $10 billion - up from $6.8 billion in 2025.

The automaker expects adjusted free cash flow to be between $5 billion and $6 billion, up from $3.5 billion last year. Capital expenditures will rise from $8.8 billion to a range of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. House said the company is allocating $1 billion to create a new division that will sell battery energy storage systems for power grids and data centers. Duty losses in 2026 will remain at 2025 levels of about $2 billion, according to Ford's CFO.

Despite the impact of one-off factors, the results for 2025 show an improvement in the fundamental business, assure House and Ford CEO Jim Farley. Ford's annual revenue rose 1% last year to a record $187.3 billion, with an $8.2 billion net loss that was the largest since the 2008 recession, according to FactSet. That amount included $15.5 billion in one-time write-downs in the fourth quarter, mostly related to revised plans for electric vehicles, CNBC explained. Automakers traditionally exclude such one-time items from adjusted results calculations to give investors a more accurate picture of their core business, the channel noted.

Ford fell below Chinese automaker BYD in global car sales for the first time in 2025, Bloomberg noted. Ford's year-end deliveries fell nearly 2 percent to just under 4.4 million vehicles, while BYD reported sales of 4.6 million vehicles. The figure, which the U.S. company released on Tuesday, confirms: BYD has moved up to sixth place in the global ranking, while Ford now occupies the seventh line, the agency states. Toyota retained the first place in the global ranking for the sixth consecutive year: its global sales grew by 4.6% to 11.3 million cars.

Despite Ford's sales growth in the U.S., the company is losing ground in Europe and especially in China, where local manufacturers such as BYD, Xiaomi and Geely are wresting market share from foreign car companies through affordable and technologically advanced electric vehicles.

Ford shares are up 3.4% since the beginning of 2026 and 47% over the last 12 months. But analysts are cautious about the stock: the majority (19 out of 24) recommend holding (Hold rating), with only three advising Buy and two more advising Sell (Sell and Underweight), MarketWatch shows. The average target price of $13.64 is nearly equal to the current price.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor