From Kazakhstan to Venezuela: which OPEC+ countries may leave the alliance after the UAE?

The decision of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to leave the OPEC/OPEC+ ranks made analysts and business publications take a closer look at other member states whose ambitions to increase production and monetize new capacity are constrained by the current quotas. However, two key protagonists of these reports hastened to deny such a scenario: Astana stated that its course within OPEC+ is unchanged, while Baghdad assured that it remains loyal to the alliance.

Leading financial publications are actively forming lists of potential "exit candidates". MarketWatch names Kazakhstan and Iraq as the most likely candidates: both countries have reserve capacities for oil production, due to which the established limits are becoming more and more burdensome for them. CNBC expands this list by adding Nigeria and Venezuela. Kazakhstan is already facing the problem of overproduction, and Nigeria needs feedstock for its new Dangote refinery, the channel points out, citing Kpler analyst Matt Smith. The idea of "the beginning of the end of OPEC" is developed on the pages of the Financial Times by MST Financial analyst Saul Kavonik, who believes that Venezuela is quite capable of following the example of the Emirates.

Iraq and Kazakhstan had previously struggled with discipline within the cartel, and the UAE's demarche has significantly reduced the "political cost" of a possible exit for them, according to Arab tabloid The National. S&P Global in 2025 characterized these two states as "chronic quota violators", which were to take on the largest compensatory cuts in the alliance. HSBC experts do not name specific countries, but warn that the UAE's departure could weaken OPEC's cohesion.

However, despite these reports, the authorities of some of these countries hastened to reject the information about the change of course. On April 29, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy stressed that the issue of revising the format of participation in OPEC+ "is not on the agenda". Baghdad took a similar position: senior Iraqi officials told Reuters that the country has no intention to leave the cartel, as it is interested in maintaining "stable and acceptable" oil prices.

The history of OPEC is a path from absolute hegemony in the market to the gradual loss of dominant positions. The Financial Times recalls that the organization was founded in 1960 as a counterweight to Western oil corporations that controlled the resources of developing countries. The cartel reached the peak of its power in 1973, when the Arab members imposed an oil embargo against states that supported Israel, including the United States.

However, the days when OPEC controlled more than half of the world's oil production are a thing of the past. According to Reuters, today its share has shrunk to about 30% under the onslaught of independent producers - primarily the United States. An attempt to retain influence was the creation in 2016 of the expanded OPEC+ format, which united the cartel with a number of oil-exporting countries, including Kazakhstan and Russia.

The UAE's exit was not an unprecedented event. In recent years, the ranks of OPEC have already thinned: Indonesia, Qatar, Ecuador and Angola left the organization. As CNBC explains, these decisions were motivated by either deep dissatisfaction with the allocated quotas or a change in national priorities. Qatar terminated its membership in 2019, Ecuador - in 2020, and Angola followed in 2024 due to tough disagreements on production levels.

The UAE's withdrawal from the group will not be "fatal" for OPEC, pointed out Raad Alkadiri of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), writes FT. "The end of OPEC has been predicted many times, but the organization has always been able to adapt," he recalled. At the same time, the threat of withdrawal of Venezuela, Iraq or Iran from the cartel may increase the influence of these countries on decision-making in OPEC, the expert added.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor