Gigawatts instead of barrels: six energy trends JPMorgan is following

The traditional order of energy security centered on access to oil and gas is no longer working, analysts at the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics say in a new report, Power Rewired: The New Map of Energy and Geopolitics. According to them, control over critical minerals, sustainability of energy grids and access to digital infrastructure are now the decisive influencing factors.

The order now taking shape is referred to in the report as the "New Era of Energy Security. In this paradigm, energy is no longer just a matter of pipelines and barrels and is becoming an industrial strategy and a tool of diplomacy. Artificial intelligence is amplifying this shift: data centers require gigawatts of stable energy, and states are beginning to view electricity as an asset of strategic importance - as they did with oil in the 20th century. As a result, the global energy order is increasingly fragmented into blocks defined not so much by ideologies as by cables, patents, and mineral resources, analysts say.

They suggest keeping an eye on six benchmarks to understand how the world's energy map may change and what factors will influence the redistribution of power and risk in the coming years.

North America has a unique portfolio of energy resources: oil and gas, renewable, nuclear and geothermal energy. This resource balance allows the U.S. to pursue a "little bit of everything" strategy and claim the role of an irreplaceable leader in the "New Era of Energy Security.

According to JPMorganChase, 12 gigawatts of solar capacity has come online in the U.S. in the first half of 2025, with another 21 expected by the end of the year. For the first time in the country's history, combined generation from solar and wind has surpassed coal-fired generation, reaching about 17% of the energy mix. Renewables have the advantage of being built within two to three years, whereas new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and refineries require at least five. This makes solar and wind power the main vehicle for rapidly ramping up capacity in the next five to six years, when data centers for artificial intelligence and returning industry dramatically increase demand for electricity.

Wind farms being built in coastal areas can rapidly increase electricity generation where capacity shortages are most acute. However, changes in federal policy are adding uncertainty to the prospects for such projects. If wind farm construction slows, the U.S. risks losing critical time just when the ability to bring new energy sources online quickly is becoming a key factor in technological competitiveness.

Washington is actively using energy as a tool of trade. A new agreement with the EU provides for $750 billion worth of U.S. energy purchases - from LNG to nuclear technology - through 2028. In parallel, the program of loan guarantees for critical minerals, grid and storage projects is being expanded. For capital markets, this is a signal - energy is becoming one of the main channels for transatlantic investment.

In the report, JPMorganChase analysts cannot give a clear answer to the question: will the U.S. be able to realize its full energy potential, using all available resources to the fullest? Or will the country follow the path of backtracking from strategic directions, which may slow down energy development and jeopardize the capital already invested?

Australia is unusually fortunate to have both traditional energy resources - coal and liquefied natural gas - and key minerals for the new economy - almost half of the world's production of lithium, a metal that is essential for the production of batteries, electronics and energy storage systems. Added to this are significant amounts of nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements, which are critical to the high-tech and defense industries. Australia's natural conditions also give it a head start in renewable energy, with the southern and western regions offering excellent conditions for solar and wind power development.

This energy portfolio makes Australia a pillar of a mineral strategy aligned with NATO. Its trade and defense ties with the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union form trusted supply chains for energy and defense technologies, according to JPMorganChase analysts.

But Australia has a vulnerability - its export structure. Today, most lithium, nickel and rare earth elements are exported in the form of ore or concentrates, with processing taking place outside the country. As a result, the profits from processing and the associated technology and jobs go to other countries.

To change this situation, Australia is developing projects to localize recycling. The government is launching initiatives to build deep processing plants and battery materials and high-tech manufacturing facilities. This should translate a resource advantage into long-term added value and a strategic technology asset.

Riyadh is once again raising the topic of a "full-cycle" civilian nuclear program, with the possibility of enriching uranium domestically rather than through imports. For many years, this ambition has been constrained by nonproliferation considerations: the incumbent nuclear powers have been opposed to countries without their own weapons developing enrichment technology.

Now the political context is changing. Donald Trump's administration has signaled a willingness to discuss nuclear cooperation separately from the issue of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, whereas under Joe Biden these topics were considered in tandem. The US Energy Secretary has already outlined a "path to a deal" and promised "significant developments" in 2025-2026.

But there are also risks: the EU and Asia are actively working on thorium reactors, which fundamentally reduce dependence on enriched uranium. If this technology is commercialized, Riyadh's investments in the uranium platform may be less effective. Saudi Arabia is in talks not only with the U.S. but also with Russia, China and South Korea on nuclear energy cooperation. The JPMorganChase report emphasizes that the choice of partners and technologies - between uranium and thorium reactors - will directly determine which fuel will become the main fuel in the future, and this will affect the structure of the global nuclear fuel market.

For Saudi Arabia, the nuclear program is part of its long-term Vision 2030 strategy. The kingdom aims to diversify its energy mix, reduce dependence on oil and free up more hydrocarbons for export. At the same time, Riyadh is signing contracts to build solar and wind parks with TotalEnergies and EDF Renewables, hoping to increase the share of renewable energy sources to 50% by 2030.

India's power sector is undergoing a major revitalization. In FY 2025, 89% of new capacity commissioned came from renewable energy sources, mainly solar generation. The country has set a target of 500 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030, a program aimed at reducing dependence on imported coal, oil and gas.

Capital inflows confirm the magnitude of the changes taking place. According to JPMorganChase, India's renewable energy sector will receive $1.6 billion in foreign direct investment in 2022, rising to $3.4 billion in 2025. Liberalization of the regime for foreign investors has become a key tool to accelerate construction: this mechanism works faster and more efficiently than traditional subsidies. For global energy companies, India is becoming a platform to test and scale new technologies for 1.45 billion people at once.

The country's additional strategic resource is the world's largest thorium reserves. Analysts note that India has a chance to become one of the first countries where commercial thorium reactors will appear. This gives the country an opportunity for a technological breakthrough that could change the balance of power in the global nuclear energy market.

China and India are increasing research and development (R&D) spending and, as new technologies become available, using them to expand foreign economic relations. These countries are forming strategic partnerships with low- and middle-income countries, offering not only investment but also infrastructure along with technology transfer.

The report emphasizes that this approach turns science and energy into a tool of diplomacy. Against this backdrop, the EU and China confirmed an enhanced partnership at a summit in Beijing. Despite Brussels' policy of diversifying supply chains away from China, the two sides agreed on joint steps, including accelerating the global deployment of renewable energy.

A new vulnerability is emerging in the global energy sector: state control extends not only to technology exports, but also to outbound investments. After restrictions on semiconductors, the United States is considering extending such controls to the energy sector. U.S. capital investments in foreign energy projects outside the union system could be at risk, especially if they support data centers and other infrastructure for artificial intelligence.

The JPMorganChase report notes that such a scenario would effectively divide the markets into two blocs - the "US alliance" and the "rest of the world". This could reduce the total size of the potential market for suppliers of equipment, software and infrastructure, and make energy another tool in the technological rivalry.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor