Gold may rise by another 20%: Deutsche Bank expects a rise to almost $5000 per ounce

Deutsche Bank forecasts gold prices to rise to $5000 per ounce in 2026 and higher in 2027. Analyst Michael Xue believes that the market will continue to be supported by strong demand from central banks, and investor interest in ETFs is returning. After an explosive rally that led to a series of record highs in October, the gold price collapsed about 10% from its peak, but has already managed to recoup about half of that drawdown.

According to the new forecast of Deutsche Bank, the price of gold in 2026 may approach $5000 per ounce, and in 2027 - to exceed this level, reports MarketWatch. Reaching the mark of $5000 suggests the potential growth of about 20% of the current quotations. December gold futures were traded on November 27 at $4152. At the peak in mid-October, the precious metal cost more than $4380 per ounce, after which it collapsed by 10%, but has already recovered about half of this drawdown.

According to Deutsche analyst Michael Xue, the market has passed the stage of mass reduction of positions, and now the steady demand from central banks will support prices. If investor interest in "gold" ETFs continues to recover, quotes could rise to about $4950 per ounce in 2026, the investment bank believes.

The average price next year, according to Xue's calculations, may reach $4450 per ounce - against the previous forecast of $4000. In 2027, the analyst expects an average price of $5150 per ounce - almost 29% higher than the current level.

According to the analyst of Deutsche Bank, now the precious metal behaves atypically: the spread of prices this year has become the widest since 1980, when due to rising inflation, falling purchasing power of currencies and the rapid increase in global debt gold repeatedly updated records.

Xue believes that stable, almost unwavering demand from global central banks will continue to push prices up in 2026. Regulators bought 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, the third highest ever recorded and noticeably more than they did in the second quarter, despite higher quotes. One manager quoted by Xue called gold "the best defense against rare and unpredictable crises."

Seasonality is also in investors' favor: prices historically show the strongest growth in January and February, the analyst noted.

He estimates that global gold production in 2025 will be 3,693 tons - a calculation based on data for the first nine months. That's a fairly modest industry response to high prices, MarketWatch notes. In 2026, Xue predicts production will only rise to 3,715 tons, which could mean demand will continue to outpace demand.

Dan Streiven of Goldman Sachs expects gold to rise to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, which means the potential for growth of about 18% from current levels, due to active purchases of central banks and the anticipated reduction in interest rates. According to Streven, even a small inflow of funds from private investors can give quotations a serious impetus, as the gold market itself is relatively small, quotes the analyst Seeking Alpha. The volume of "gold" ETFs is about 70 times smaller than the U.S. Treasury bond market. "And that's another reason why gold is our favorite long-term bet among commodity assets," Straven said.

UBS last week also raised its expectations on gold price from $4700 to $4900 per ounce. The bank believes that after the mid-term elections in the U.S. at the end of 2026 quotations may be temporarily fixed around $4300, and in case of growth of political and financial risks it is quite possible to realize the "bullish" forecast. UBS still holds a long position on the precious metal in the global portfolio and emphasizes that it remains a reliable hedging instrument even at current prices.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor