Gold rush: gold miners' shares rise twice as fast as gold prices rise

In October 2025, the value of gold reached the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time and has already passed $4200. But it's not even about round numbers, but about the unprecedented growth that this protective asset has demonstrated. Since the beginning of the year, gold has grown by more than 60%. How to bet on gold without physically buying it?

The price of gold on October 8, 2025 for the first time in history broke the mark of $4000 per troy ounce, a week later a new record was set: on October 15, the cost of gold reached $4235 per ounce. it rose another $200. The previous round figure of $3000 was recorded on March 14. Since the beginning of the year, gold rose by 60.8% by October 15 For a physical asset, which for decades was considered a "safe haven", this is an unprecedented growth, which was envied by many stock owners.

As the analytical division of ING Bank reminds, gold rises during financial cataclysms - the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2008 in the USA led to price growth above $1000 per ounce, the COVID-19 pandemic - to $2000 per ounce. And the outbreak of trade wars instigated in early 2025 by US President Donald Trump - to $3000 per ounce and above. The rise in gold prices in 2025, unusually, was not caused by a financial market crisis, The Wall Street Journal noted.

If we abandon the direct analogy between the financial crisis, the pandemic and Trump's rise to power, we can once again turn to the ING report. The bank's analysts write that such a rise in gold prices is explained by the coincidence of many things: armed conflicts, the change of the American administration, trade wars. There are too many risks in the world, investors feel it and prefer to leave risky assets. But if the US dollar or US short-term bonds used to be a protective asset, now investors hedge their dollar investments against possible collapse. And instead of the dollar they prefer gold.

ING writes that central banks have become the largest investors in gold. And since the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine, the volume of gold purchases by central banks has doubled. "[Interest] of central banks in gold is due to the fears of countries in connection with the decisions of the U.S. and Europe to freeze Russian assets, as well as changes in strategies for foreign exchange reserves," - writes ING. The list of gold buyers was headed by the National Bank of Poland, which has increased its gold reserves by 67 tons since the beginning of the year. It is followed by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and China.

ING believes $4,000 an ounce is not the limit if central banks continue to reduce their reliance on the dollar and investors seek protection from volatility. Bank of America on Oct. 13 raised its forecast to $5,000 an ounce by 2026 and the average annual price to $4,400. Goldman Sachs on Sept. 24 expected about $4,000 by mid-2026, but gold crossed that milestone 2 weeks after the forecast was published.

Shares of gold mining companies are growing faster than gold itself - for example, the securities of Newmont, the largest gold producer, have appreciated by 150% since the beginning of the year. In addition, the market often reacts with a lag: the launch of new mines requires time and investment, and rising costs can hold back quotations. Hedging sales through forwards and options protects companies from falling prices, but limits profits when prices rally - which is why many miners are now reducing insurance.

Here are the figures for the three largest companies by production volume:

- The American Newmont Corporation is the only gold mining company in the S&P 500 index and has been on the market for over a hundred years. The company produces and develops mines in North and South America, Africa and Australia. In the first half of 2025, Newmon reported net income of $2.1 billion, its performance has exceeded analysts' expectations for the past three quarters. In September , it was announced that CEO Tom Palmer will retire on December 31, 2025, and will be replaced by Vice President and COO Natasha Viljoen. In addition, Newmont announced the sale of its interest in Orla Mining and the Coffee project (up to $150 million) as part of an asset portfolio optimization. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, 11 of the 21 analysts tracking the company's stock recommend "Buy" and only 1 recommends "Sell." The average target price is $95.56, just 2.12% above the closing price on October 15. However, analysts at Citi raised their Oct. 15 target from $74 to $104, and that implies upside potential above 11% of the closing price.

- Canada-based Agnico Eagle has assets in Canada, Mexico and Finland. The company reported record net income of $1.07 billion, or $2.13 per share, for the second quarter of 2025. The company reiterated forecasts that it is on track to produce 3.3-3.5 million ounces in 2025. Seeking Alpha analyst Manika Premsingh notes that with gold prices rising steadily, its strong operating base, near-zero net debt and growing cash flow create potential for further upside for the stock. City analysts raised their Oct. 15 target from $140 to $198 - that's 10.7% above the closing price. The average target price according to MarketWatch is $177.98 - just 0.5% above the closing price. 15 out of 21 analysts recommend. "Buy."

- Canada's Barrick Mining Corporation has seen its shares rise 123.82% since the beginning of the year. The company has positioned itself as a miner with a diversified portfolio of gold and copper, able to win in the face of rising prices for both metals. In Q2 2025, net income rose 124% year-over-year to $811 million or $0.47 per share (vs. $370 million or $0.21 a year earlier). There are risks: uncertainty with African assets and conflict with the Ma government. Analysts at TD Securities in September raised their target price on the company's stock from $30 to $38, meaning a potential upside of 9.5% from the closing price on Oct. 15. The average target is $35.04, up 1% from the Oct. 15 close. Out of 22 analysts, 10 recommend Buy, while five give it an Outperform rating of "Outperform" - "Above Market".

All three companies saw their production volumes in the first half of 2025 decline year-on-year - Barrick Mining's production decreased by 16.57%. Companies outside North America are now the leaders of growth in this indicator: South African Cold Fields' production in the first half of 2025 increased by 22.75%.

At the end of September, a new player appeared on the market - Zijin Gold, the gold mining division of China's Zijin Mining, which operates all of the group's mines outside of China, went public. The stock soared 60% on the first day of trading. Production of the parent company Zijin Mining grew by 16.34% in the first half of the year.

Gold exchange-traded funds have seen a notable inflow of capital, ING Bank writes in its Gold Monthly: All that glitters is gold. The total volume of gold bought by ETFs rose 17% this year to its highest level since September 2022.

Buying ETFs, an investor receives a "virtual ounce" of gold, the price of which repeats the dynamics of the real asset. That is why the yield of their shares with minimal deviations repeats the yield of gold - 60% since the beginning of the year. Most of the largest gold ETs are backed by physical gold, which is in the vaults of partner banks.

- SPDR Gold Shares ETF

Quantity of gold: approximately 32.8 million ounces

Cost per share: $381.81

Fee: 0.40% of asset value

Its investment objective, as stated in the statements, is for the shares to reflect the dynamics of the price of gold bullion bars minus the fund's expenses. That is, the fund does not trade in gold in order to make money on price fluctuations. It trades on the NYSE, but also on the Hong Kong, Mexico, Singapore and Tokyo stock exchanges. Gold, totaling 1019 tons is stored in JPMorgan and HSBC banks.

- iShares Gold Trust

Quantity of gold: approximately 14.2 million ounces

Cost per share: $78.16

Fee: 0.25% of asset value

The principle is the same as that of its main competitor - SPDR Gold Shares: the fund seeks to reflect the general dynamics of the gold price. And bullion bars are stored there too - in JPMorgan. However, iShares Gold Trust has less bullion - about 402 tons, and the lists with their numbers occupy about 600 pages. Like its main competitor, it distributes shares through partners, issuing baskets of 50,000 securities and providing them with gold bought into the vaults.

- abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF

Quantity of gold: approximately 1.6 million ounces

Cost per share: $39.5

Fee: 0.17% of asset value

The Fund is different in that it seeks to hold only London Good Delivery gold bars refined on or after January 1, 2012. Such gold, in accordance with the standards of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), requires producers to "demonstrate their efforts to protect the environment, combat money laundering and combat human rights violations". At the same time, the list of producers includes gold from Russia's Moscow Special Alloys Processing Plant or Krasnoyarsk's Krastsvetmet.

Not everyone in the market is expecting a rapid rise in gold. Despite the strong rally of recent months, HSBC analysts believe that the momentum of the rally is weakening. Deutsche Bank also believes that the potential for further growth of gold may be limited. According to their technical indicators, the September-October trend has already peaked: its duration is longer than average and the momentum is weakening. The bank does not expect a sharp correction, but sees an increased probability of a transition to a more neutral dynamics. Deutsche Bank assumes a further rise in the gold/oil ratio to 72-73, which corresponds to a gold price of about $4450 per ounce by 2026. According to JPMorgan's forecast of October 10 (available at Oninvest's disposal), by the end of the year prices will fall from the current level by 10%, the bank believes that in December an ounce will cost $3800.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor