Highlights for the morning: Wall Street is expected to rally, oil is rising, South Park vs. Skydance

Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions around the truce between Israel and Iran, the cost of oil rose by more than 1%, but remains near its lows for several weeks - investors do not expect supply disruptions. At the same time, optimism is growing in the stock market: the S&P 500 index is close to an all-time high, and a BMO strategist has improved his outlook for U.S. stocks this year. At the same time, bond market veteran Bill Gross warns that yields on 10-year Treasuries are unlikely to fall below 4.25%, while predicting a «small bull market» for stocks amid the AI boom. On these and other topics, see our roundup of key events for the morning of June 25.

The S&P 500 index is once again within one percentage point of its all-time high. One of Wall Street's most prominent optimists believes U.S. stocks will continue to rise through the end of the year, reports Yahoo Finance.

BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belsky raised his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,700 points, revising up his previous target of 6,100. He had earlier lowered it amid trade uncertainty that roiled markets in April.

Now that the major concerns about the duties are behind them, strategists believe, Belsky laid out a more optimistic view in a note to clients titled «Same old, same old.»

«The key signals we talked about in April have largely been realized - the market is shifting from 'scare news' to 'prove it to me' mode,» Belsky wrote. - «We see market breadth increasing, reactions to daily headlines becoming calmer, and corporate forecasts will begin to strengthen after the second-quarter reporting season.

Optimism on Wall Street is strengthening amid the index's recovery to record highs. At least eight of the 11 analyst firms that downgraded their targets for the S&P 500 index in April have already revised those forecasts upward.

Bond market legend Bill Gross warns that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities is unlikely to fall below 4.25 percent as rising budget deficits and a weakening dollar contribute to persistently high inflation, reports Bloomberg.

On the other hand, Gross said the stock market is likely to continue its moderate rise thanks to «the power of the age of artificial intelligence» - even if the bond market or economic growth rates aren't impressive.

«I'm envisioning a 'small bull market' for stocks and a 'small bear market' for bonds,» the co-founder and former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote on social media X. - Stocks are influenced by AI and continue to point to 1-2% economic growth.»

Gross bases his bond forecast on historical trends and sees no compelling reason to significantly lower rates from current levels, noting that 10-year yields are typically 1.75 p.p. above inflation. It is currently around 4.3%.

The U.S. stock market has been rebounding in recent weeks, rebounding from April's decline.

Oil prices are rising as investors assess the sustainability of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, reports Reuters.

Brent crude futures rose by 1.3% to $67.99 per barrel by 03:41 GMT, the cost of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose by 1.4% to $65.24. At the same time, quotes remain near lows for several weeks amid expectations that oil supplies will not be disrupted. On Tuesday, Brent ended trading at its lowest since June 10 and WTI at its lowest since June 5, that is, before Israel's surprise attack on Iran's key military and nuclear facilities on June 13. Prices jumped to five-month highs after the U.S. launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend.

«Global energy prices are stabilizing following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Our analysts' base case scenario for oil continues to rely on fundamentals pointing to ample global supply,» JPMorgan analysts said in a note to clients.

According to a preliminary assessment by US intelligence, the US strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability, but only delayed its development for several months. This happened amid the entry into force of a shaky ceasefire between Iran and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump.

Trey Parker and Matt Stone, creators of the popular animated series South Park, accused potential buyers of their longtime partner Paramount Global of interfering in negotiations that could have netted them billions of dollars, reports Bloomberg.

Parker and Stone approached Paramount in February with the intention of extending their agreement to produce the show, which expires in 2027. Negotiations were already underway to sell the rights to show the series with a possible deal valuation of $2.5 billion. Among the interested parties were HBO Max (now part of Warner Bros. Discovery), as well as Netflix and other companies.

However, Skydance Media, the independent studio trying to buy out Paramount, has begun parallel negotiations with Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix, setting their own terms. That prompted a sharp reaction from Parker and Stone and the threat of a lawsuit. A letter from their attorney to RedBird Capital Partners (Skydance's advisor and an investor in the Paramount deal) argued that Skydance's actions constituted impermissible interference.

According to sources, the deal with HBO Max was to pay more than $1 billion over 10 years, with the Paramount+ platform expected to contribute a similar amount. However, everything depended on Parker and Stone agreeing to continue producing new episodes.

Skydance claims it has the right to approve «meaningful contracts» as part of the merger agreement and is seeking more financially disciplined management of Paramount. A potential 5-year agreement with HBO Max or an exclusive global deal with Netflix is preferable for Skydance because it would save money and simplify licensing. However, it does mean that South Park could disappear from the Paramount+ platform.

The show's creators, through their Park County company, claim that the combined revenues from HBO Max, Paramount+ and international licenses will bring in more than a single deal with Netflix. That said, the value of such agreements is directly tied to Parker and Stone's involvement.

Skydance is also concerned that current payments to creators are inflated. Paramount made a $900 million deal with them in 2021 to continue the show and release movies for streaming. The new contract could be worth even more on a year-to-year basis. Skydance wants Parker and Stone to make more content for that money.

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed the situation in the Middle East as well as fresh comments from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, reports CNBC. There is growing optimism that the ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump between Israel and Iran is likely to hold.

 - Japan's Nikkei 225 index added 0.2 percent, while the Topix index fell 0.1 percent.

 - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index was little changed. 

 - South Korea's Kospi was down 0.2 percent, while the Kosdaq small-cap index fell 0.4 percent.

 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.7 percent and China's CSI 300 was up 0.5 percent.

 - US index futures are trading almost unchanged, adding less than 0.1%. The day before on Wall Street, all three major indices closed trading with gains. The Dow Jones rose 1.2%, ending the day at just above 43,089. The S&P 500 index added 1.1% to end the day above 6092. The broad market is now just 0.9% away from its 52-week high. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 1.4% to close at 19,912.5 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.5% to set a new record at 22,190.52.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on June 24 that the Fed is determined to keep inflation in check and is likely to keep the rate unchanged until it becomes clear how the duties may affect prices. He said the regulator is «well positioned to wait and learn more about the likely trajectory of the economy before making policy changes.»

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor