Highlights of the week: truce in the Middle East, Tesla robotaxi, NATO spending

British energy company Shell, according to media reports, has begun preliminary discussions about a possible purchase of its rival BP. Tesla shares posted their highest intraday gain in two months after the launch of the first robot cabs in Texas. NATO countries agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. US President Donald Trump is fast-tracking his search for a successor to Fed chief Jerome Powell. About the main events from June 23 to June 27 - in our review;

British oil and gas company Shell, according to data from The Wall Street Journal, is in preliminary talks about a possible acquisition of its rival BP. Officially, Shell refuted this information: the company called the reports «market speculation.» If the deal does go through, it could be the largest in the oil industry since Exxon and Mobil merged in the late 1990s.

WSJ sources say the companies are in early discussions and BP management is «scrutinizing the offer.» However, negotiations are progressing slowly, and no specific terms have been disclosed yet. With BP's current market capitalization - about $80 billion - the amount of the potential merger, including the premium, could exceed $83 billion. The deal could become the largest in the M&A sector in 2025, WSJ wrote.

Shell has previously commented on similar rumors, emphasizing that it is focused on increasing its value through financial discipline, simplifying its structure and increasing efficiency. After the latest publication, Shell declared to CNBC that «no negotiations are underway.» BP, for its part, declined to comment. CNBC sources doubt that Shell could buy out BP in full. According to them, the more likely scenario is that several players will divide BP's assets among themselves if negotiations reach a deal.

- How well the companies' assets fit together and what the synergy effect could be - in material of Oninvest correspondent Victoria Sirota's «The biggest deal of a generation: Shell is in talks to buy BP - WSJ».

On Sunday, June 22, Tesla finally launched its robotaxi in Austin, Texas. Each vehicle had a company employee in the front passenger seat to monitor safety. Tesla chose a «friendly» group of retail investors and popular bloggers to be the first passengers and broadcast their rides live, wrote Bloomberg. Tesla's test program involves 10 to 20 cars that serve passengers in a limited area of Austin. Trips are paid at a flat rate of $4.2.

The launch was not without incidents: one of the recordings shows a robotaxi driving into the oncoming lane and crossing a double solid line, while another shows it ignoring the speed limit.

Despite noticing autopilot bugs, investors have taken a positive view of the autonomous cab startup. On Monday, June 23, Tesla shares showed the maximum daily growth in two months. During the day, quotes added up to 11%, which was the strongest intraday growth since April 9. At the close of trading, the company's securities jumped 8.2% to $348.7, the highest close since May 29. On Friday, trading in Tesla shares ended at $323.62.

A known optimist about Tesla - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives - has also tested the company's unmanned cab and was pleased. Он

- Details of the launch of the service from Tesla and analysts' opinions about it - in the material «Riding on the oncoming traffic: how the launch of Tesla's robot cab, which raised shares by 8%, went». 

- The launch of Tesla robot cab overshadowed the results of another player in this sector - Waymo. Why this happened - in article «Underestimated Waymo. The hype around Tesla's robotaxi has left Alphabet's project in the shadows.»

- Two weeks before the launch, Oninvest guest columnist Mikhail Overchenko in an article  «Power is always more important than money: will it prevent Tesla from becoming a techno-giant?» wrote about the share in the value of Ilon Musk's company that investment banks give to the robotaxi segment;

U.S. President Donald Trump may announce a new successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ahead of schedule, wrote Bloomberg. According to information from The Wall Street Journal, Trump could announce the nominee for a new Fed chief as early as September or October, despite the fact that Powell's tenure doesn't expire until May 2026. Typically, such decisions are made months before the term expires. Possible candidates include former Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and current U.S. Treasury Department head Scott Bessent.

After these publications, the US dollar weakened to its lowest level in three years. Market participants fear the undermining of the Fed's independence and put into prices additional interest rate cuts in the U.S. in 2025. By June 27, the dollar weakened to its lowest level in three and a half years. On Friday, the DYX dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against the euro, yen, franc, British pound, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, was near a one-year low. 

On June 24, US President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel have ended the hot stage of the conflict. The sides had been exchanging strikes since June 13. On the night of June 22, the US struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the country on June 23 attacked US military bases in the Middle East.  

«Iran will officially begin the END OF FIRE, 12 hours later Israel will join in, and 24 hours later the entire world will witness the OFFICIAL END of the 12-DAY WAR,» Trump wrote in Truth Social on Tuesday (spelling and punctuation retained).

Later that day, the US president wrote that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran had gone into effect. Iran declared that it had no plans to continue strikes against Israel. Israel agreed to the ceasefire on the condition that Iran refrain from further attacks.

«I think this agreement will prove sustainable and the conflict will indeed end,» said Dennis Ross, a former special envoy to President Bill Clinton and now an expert at the Institute for Near East Policy in Washington. - Iran has no motivation to resume hostilities right now.»

- Journalist Peter Kiryan in material «Captain America vs. the UN: What future does the U.S. attack on Iran paint for the world?» wrote about why this attack is evidence of a turn in international relations to new rules of the world order.

- Journalist Anna Krasnova in material  «47 Days Later: How Markets Recover from Wars and Conflicts» recounts the key findings of Morgan Stanley and Raymond James analysts who have analyzed stock «swings» after wars since the mid-20th century;

At the June 24-25 NATO summit in The Hague, NATO countries agreed to increase defense spending from the current 2 percent to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, according to a declaration adopted at the end of the meeting. The decision was an important victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who had previously criticized allies for underfunding defense and called for spending to be increased to that level. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte previously stated that 3.5 percent of GDP should be spent on defense, with the remaining 1.5 percent on cybersecurity, railways, ports and other infrastructure.

Increased defense spending by NATO countries is positive news for defense and aerospace companies. But BlackRock analysts believe that European defense stocks already have limited upside potential - many of them have already shown significant growth this year. In the U.S., where military spending is more than double that of Europe, BlackRock still sees upside potential in the segment.

Oninvest correspondent Vladislav Osipov in the article «NATO countries will raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. Which arms manufacturers will win?» recounted the recommendations of analysts - they named several public companies whose securities have growth potential.

One in three of 75 central banks plans to increase the share of gold in their reserves in the next 1-2 years, a record level in the last five years. Such data showed a survey by the OMFIF think tank from March to May, wrote Reuters. Interest in gold, already high, has intensified against the backdrop of the trade war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump. Over the longer term, nearly 40% of central banks have said they intend to build up gold reserves over the next decade. 

«After several years of record buying, reserve managers are doubling down on this precious metal,» the OMFIF report said.

If last year the dollar remained the main currency for placing reserves, now it has fallen to seventh place in popularity: 70% of respondents admitted that political instability in the United States prevents them from investing in the American currency. This is twice as much as a year earlier. The main beneficiaries of this process are the euro and the yuan;

- Oninvest analyst Konstantin Gnenny in material «Is the dollar really losing its status as the world's main reserve currency?» investigated how the dollar's role in the global economy is changing;

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor