"I'm betting on what will be there in 5-10 years": Ilya Chernetsky's investment rules

Ilya Chernetsky is the creator of CoinKeeper, one of the most popular applications for keeping track of personal finances in Russia and the CIS, where more than 350,000 people analyze their expenses every month. In addition to Coinkeeper, Chernetsky advises startups on launching and monetizing mobile applications, gives lectures and trainings, and runs a Telegram channel called "Investment Rules". His new projects include an AI service for product analytics @heymetrics and a paywall optimization tool.

Ilya Chernetsky answered Oninvest's questions about his rules in investing.

What are you investing in - and why this particular one?

I probably ended up investing the most time, Xi and money in my own business. But I believe that, although globally an entrepreneur must believe in himself, he must also leave a certain amount of doubt and lay a straw in case something goes wrong in business. For me, this straw is investments on the stock market - in public companies, as well as government and corporate bonds.

Do you remember your first investment? How did it go?

Most likely, one of the first was the then still Tinkoff Bank. I started investing more actively when their investment service appeared in 2016, and probably the first thing I bought there was shares in the bank itself. But then I bought and sold them repeatedly, which I sometimes regret.

What's one thing you definitely wouldn't buy again?

At one point I was fond of shares of mining and processing companies. But I do not understand this business well, it is difficult for me to understand its structure and trends. As a result, I was rather trying to understand where the wind was blowing. Now I place a significant stake in my portfolios on what will happen in 5-10 years. And to do this, you don't just need to understand technical or fundamental analysis - you need to understand the company's business, what it consists of and what influences it.

Who do you trust when you make decisions?

I try to make my own decisions without "delegating" it to others. That's why I almost never invest in funds. This does not mean that I do not trust anyone, there are many people I read or listen to, whose opinion I am interested in. But everything should be treated with a certain degree of skepticism.

If you could only invest in one idea for 10 years - what would it be?

I think the next big industry after IT is robotics. I think the first $10 trillion company will be in that market. Because it's a market about that size. Hundreds of millions of robots costing a few tens of thousands of dollars. And probably billions of cheaper ones.

When was the last time you made a mistake - and what did you realize from it?

Overestimated the timing of the U.S. market decline. I thought it was going to start its deep decline in April this year. But no, it's still holding up, to the relief of many.

Are you more about strategy or intuition? Why?

I can't say I ignore my intuition. But personally, it often fails me. Strategy also fails, but here at least you can rationalize your mistakes. For example, you thought that the Central Bank rate would fall in the second half of 2022 and would not grow, and built your strategy around that. But it didn't turn out that way at all. But at least you realize that you based your strategy on wrong assumptions.

Which of the famous investors are you closer to?

As cliché as it may sound, it's Buffett. Long-term investments, attention to business and those who run it, bargain-basement purchases - all of this is very close to me.

What does an investor fear when the screen goes out?

A true investor very rarely looks at a screen and isn't afraid to go on vacation because they don't care about daily fluctuations in value.

What pisses you off the most in the investment environment?

How many people don't know how to calculate and assess risk. From investing in unprofitable products with high commissions, to massive sales and collapses that are essentially self-fulfilling prophecies. That's exactly the fear discussed in the last question that pushes people to panic sell at an undervalued price. And the more sales - the lower the price, the more panic. Sometimes it's infuriating, although I try to take advantage of these opportunities to add to my portfolio.

Do you have an investment talisman? Something you hold on to, even if logic is no longer enough?

I sometimes hold on to the idea of some company's wonderful future longer than I should. Sometimes that future comes. Sometimes the company doesn't make it, and that may become clear to me later than it does to everyone else. But that's not because this investment is a talisman. Rather, my optimism outweighs my critical assessment.

What did you spend the profits from your most successful deal on?

The last time was when I successfully sat out 2014 in currency and bought an apartment. But I wouldn't say it was an investment. Everything I sell (quite rarely, by the way), I immediately reinvest.

What has to happen for you to cache everything?

Into non-cash cache - persistent feeling of impending stock market collapse. In cash cache - justified fear for the stability of the banking system. But in general, it seems to me that in such a case, I would rather "invest" kash in canned food and other supplies in case of quite dramatic events.

Do you have guilty pleasure in investing? (For example, "taking crypto overnight.")

I have a mania for opening bank and brokerage accounts. I am interested in it from the point of view of usability and functions, so I keep very small amounts there, just to see how it works.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor