JPMorgan lists Walmart as a top idea for summer. Why stocks aren't afraid of Trump

JPMorgan believes that Walmart shares still look attractive despite the fact that the largest US retailer has found itself in the midst of a trade war unleashed by President Donald Trump. Investment Bank has listed Walmart shares among its top investment ideas for the summer, expecting them to continue to rise. The retailer's shares are up nearly 10% this year, outperforming the market. 

Walmart shares could be called the biggest safe haven in the consumer sector: about 70% of the retailer's business comes from food, and even in recessionary periods the company has traditionally built market share, JPMorgan analyst Chris Horvers said. «Walmart's long-term story is holding investors back,» he emphasized in a note quoted by Yahoo Finance.

Horvers, who recommends investors buy Walmart stock, estimates the securities could rise 33% to $130 in the next 18 months. That's one of the most optimistic target prices on Wall Street, according to Yahoo Finance. As recently as May 15, after reporting the company, the analyst's target was $112. Wall Street's average target price on the stock is $108.

At the trades on June 2, Walmart's securities were growing by 1.1% at the moment. Over 12 months, the retailer's shares rose by 50%, and since the beginning of this year - by 9%, while the U.S. broad stock market index S&P 500 added less than 1%. 

Walmart shares are advised to buy by 90% of Wall Street analysts tracking them, followed by MarketWatch data. On May 28, analysts at Wolfe Research raised their target price on Walmart stock from $97 to $112, maintaining an Outperform rating of Outperform, which equates to a buy recommendation. Morgan Stanley's Simeon Gutman reiterated a $115 target price and a «buy» recommendation on the retailer's shares on June 2, writes TipRanks. According to Gutman, the retailer has a strong market position and potential for sustainable growth. One key driver: strong growth in the number of Walmart+ service subscribers. The program is showing significant year-over-year growth, indicating the success of the strategy to expand delivery zones and develop the company's e-commerce division.

After strong growth last year, Walmart shares are showing weaker dynamics in 2025: over the past month they rose by 1.3%, while the S&P 500 index - by 5.5% after the April low, writes Yahoo Finance. The relatively weak performance of the securities followed mixed results for the first quarter and sluggish reporting from retailers in general, the publication notes.

Walmart's first-quarter sales rose 2.5% from a year ago, falling short of Wall Street's forecast. U.S. hypermarket shopping growth slowed from a year ago. The company maintained its full-year EPS guidance in the range of $2.5-$2.61, below analysts' estimates. Last week, retailers including Gap, Macy's and Best Buy warned of profit pressure from the Trump administration's duties. The market promptly responded with a selloff in the sector.

As the reporting season winds down, investor attention is shifting to the macro economy and its resilience to new trade barriers, especially ahead of the important shopping season for the new school year, notes Yahoo Finance.

Economic signals remain mixed, the publication writes. On the one hand, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 50.8 to 52.2 in the second half of May, down 25% from a year ago. On the other hand, according to revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the first quarter, the first decline since 2022.