Just buy it: why does JPMorgan expect Nike stock to rise more than 20%?

JPMorgan analyst expects shares of athletic footwear and apparel maker Nike to grow by another 22% and advises investors to buy them. According to the bank, the company has emerged from a difficult period and is now ready to accelerate revenue growth and restore margins thanks to positive feedback on the new collection, improved inventory management and strengthened product innovation.

JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss upgraded Nike's stock from Neutral (on par with the market) to Overweight (above the market) and raised his target price from $64 to $93 per share, reports CNBC. Boss's new target implies the company's stock price will rise another 22% from the closing price of recent trading. 

"Just buy it," wrote the Boss in a post, playing off Nike's famous advertising slogan, Just Do It.  

According to the analyst, Nike has reached a tipping point in its multi-year recovery after a period of difficulty in managing the lifecycle of key products and liquidating excess inventory. JPMorgan expects an acceleration in Nike's product ordering momentum from wholesale partners, especially amid the company's emphasis on scaling product innovation. Initial partner feedback on the spring/summer 2026 collection has been "very positive," according to Boss. By the end of the second quarter of 2026, according to the investment bank analyst, Nike's inventory-to-sales ratio will stabilize - meaning the company will no longer suffer from a product glut and will manage supply more efficiently.

Against this backdrop, Boss expects Nike to accelerate revenue growth and recover more than 500 basis points of operating margin in the second half of fiscal 2026 and into 2027. He said this will come from growth in full-price sales, new products and lower distribution and administration costs.

Longer term, the analyst also sees potential for operating margin growth. He expects that after fiscal 2028, it could increase by an additional 200-300 basis points and return to a pre-JPMorgan guidance of 12-13% (compared to JPMorgan's current forecast of 10% for 2028).

In trading on July 28, Nike shares jumped 4.9% to $79.99. This is their maximum value for 4.5 months. At the same time, this price is only 5% higher than Nike quotes at the end of last year. For comparison: the main U.S. stock index S&P 500 this year added almost 9%.

Last week, Goldman Sachs analyst Brooke Roach raised her target price on Nike shares from $81 to $85 and maintained a Buy rating, revised by Tip Ranks. The update was due to a revised assessment of the apparel and light industrial goods sector in the U.S. - with current duties of 30% on U.S. imports from China, 20% from Vietnam, 19% from Indonesia and 10% from other countries, the publication notes. In general, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive view on the sustainability of consumer demand and does not expect significant downside risks to sales in the current quarter, although they emphasize that a number of factors should be closely monitored.

Earlier, on July 17, an HSBC analyst also raised his target on Nike stock from $80 to $88 and maintained a buy advice. Prior to that, he advised investors to buy Nike securities for the first time in three and a half years - following unexpectedly strong results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended May 31. Nike reported fourth-quarter sales fell nearly 12% to $11.1 billion - while analysts expected $10.72 billion.Net income per share came in at $0.14 versus Wall Street's forecast of $0.13. For the current quarter, Nike only expects revenue to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage (roughly 4-7%) and gross margin to shrink by 350-425 basis points. The HSBC analyst, like his JPMorgan counterpart, also called it a turning point for the brand, but cautioned against being overly optimistic about the pace of recovery.

In total, according to data MarketWatch, 38 analysts have rated Nike's stock and most of them (20) are neutral with a Hold rating. Another 17 advise the company's securities to buy (Buy and Overweight ratings) and only one suggests selling. The Wall Street consensus price target of $75.5 per Nike share is 1% below the closing price on July 25.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor