Market awaits Nvidia report: which stocks could rise or fall the most?

Investors' reaction to the quarterly report of Nvidia on November 19 will determine the vector of movement of quotes of the entire technology sector. CNBC TV channel highlighted two stocks from the S&P 500 index, whose quotations had the highest correlation with Nvidia in the last 60 days - they may show the greatest volatility after the publication of the report of the main beneficiary of the AI boom.

The correlation of the dynamics of shares of the largest contract manufacturer of chips TSMC with the securities of its key customer is 57%. Since the beginning of 2025 quotations of the Taiwanese company in New York have grown by more than 40%. Earlier this week, Bank of America raised the target price of TSMC securities by 9% - from 1800 to 1960 new Taiwan dollars per share and up to $390 per ADR - and recommended them to buy.

BofA called TSMC an undervalued way to bet on the "long-term AI growth trend." The bank's team of analysts' confidence in TSMC's prospects increased after analyzing shipments of advanced semiconductors and demand for high-performance computing (HPC). BofA attributed the increase in the target on the Taiwanese company's securities to "continued improvement in earnings forecasts and opportunities for revaluation".

Server maker Super Micro Computer has a 60-day correlation with Nvidia at 55%. The company's stock is up 15% this year. In November, Argus Research raised its rating on Supermicro's stock from Hold to Buy with a 12-month target of $64 per share - 84% above current levels.

Argus analyst Jim Kelleher believes that the current share price already fully accounts for the company's past mistakes related to revenue and falling margins, with the market overlooking the potential for strong momentum in the future. "We believe the stock is undervalued based on its growth prospects," the expert concluded.

LSEG's consensus forecast calls for Nvidia to report a 54% jump in quarterly earnings to $1.25 per share. Wall Street also expects revenue to increase, up 57% year-over-year to $55 billion, CNBC reported.

Among other things, the market is expecting strong performance from the latest line of Nvidia Blackwell chips - it is expected to provide the next stage of the company's growth, Bloomberg writes. The key factor will also be the dynamics of margins, especially in the data center segment - this division brought almost 90% of Nvidia's revenue in the second quarter. "But as is often the case with stocks in the AI sector, Wall Street's reaction is likely to depend on the outlook for the future," the agency notes.

Even if Nvidia meets forecasts, it may not lead to a jump in quotations, given the cooling of investor sentiment, warns Bloomberg. In October, the SoftBank Group of Japan's wealthiest man, Masaesi Son, sold a stake in Nvidia to fund other investments in artificial intelligence. Thiel Macro hedge fund of one of the most influential investors in the technology sector, Peter Thiel, also closed a position in Nvidia in the third quarter.

Scion Asset Management, the fund managed by Michael Burry, famous for playing down against the real estate market before the 2008 financial crisis, disclosed in early November that it had bought options on Nvidia's stock. Earlier, the iconic financier warned of an AI bubble.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor