"More decline than growth": Jefferies predicted a 17% decline in Apple's stock price

An analyst at Jefferies has predicted a drop of almost 17% in Apple shares: he warned that the company will face growing risks due to the trade policies of the Donald Trump administration and slowing demand for the iPhone 17. He said uncertainty surrounding possible duties, limited manufacturing capacity in India and pressure on margins make the current valuation of Apple's securities unattractive.

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee slightly lowered his target price on Apple's stock - from $205.2 to $203.1 - and maintained an Underperform rating (below market), CNBC reports. Lee's target suggests that Apple's stock could fall about 17% from its closing level on Friday, October 10. According to the analyst, the current valuation of Apple shares is unattractive, given all the problems the company is facing, the channel reported. Ahead, Lee sees the stock as having "more downside than upside."

Lee named the trade policy of Donald Trump's administration as the main risk for Apple, which could put pressure on quotations. Jefferies believes Trump may change his mind about exempting Apple smartphones from duties on imports from China and that the market is underestimating the level of uncertainty in trade relations between the US, China and India. "After Trump announced additional 100 percent duties on Chinese imports, it remains unclear whether the smartphone exemption will remain in place," Lee said in a note cited by CNBC.

Another reason for pessimism is the continued slowdown in sales of new smartphones in the iPhone 17 lineup, Jefferies said. Earlier this month, it had already downgraded Apple's stock, noting overinflated expectations for future models, CNBC recalled. Lee believes that China will not be able to fully meet demand for the iPhone 17 due to production in India, creating supply chain risks. In addition, Apple could face pressure from US authorities to shift some assembly to the country, especially if the trade conflict with China escalates. The margins of the new iPhone 17 could also come under pressure due to a less favorable sales mix and rising component costs, the analyst believes.

In trading on October 13, Apple shares were up almost 2% to $249.7 at the moment. The iPhone maker's shares were rising along with the rest of the market, hoping for a softening of US President Donald Trump's rhetoric after his threats to raise duties against China by 100% in response to Beijing's new export restrictions.

Since the beginning of 2025, the market value of Apple has gone into a small minus. By comparison, the main U.S. stock index S&P 500, on the contrary, has added about 13% over the same period.

On October 8, UBS analyst David Vogt reiterated a Neutral rating on Apple shares and a target price of $220 - 10% below the close of previous trading. According to the bank's assessment, the new line of smartphones is likely to repeat last year's trend - waiting times for deliveries in key regions will gradually decrease or stabilize, unless Apple resorts to additional promotions or discounts to stimulate demand.

In just the last three months, Apple securities have had two fewer "buy" recommendations and three more neutral ratings, according to MarketWatch. Now 60% of analysts advise to buy the company's securities (Buy and Overweight ratings), 35% take a neutral position with a Hold rating, and the rest suggest selling. Wall Street's average target price of $251 per share is almost identical to the current level of Apple's quotes.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor