Morning in New York: Fed signals in focus

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

This Wednesday will be rich in comments from representatives of the Fed leadership, who are expected to specify their plans for the further course of monetary policy. Of particular interest will be the speech of FRB New York President John Williams at the US Treasury Market Conference. Also, the investment community expects to hear from the head of FRB Atlanta Raphael Bostic and members of the Board of Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran about the state of the economy and labor market, taking into account the weak ADP statistics released the day before.

Among the day's significant events will be President Donald Trump's meeting with CEOs of major financial firms, including CEOs of Nasdaq (NDAQ) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), aimed at strengthening ties with corporate leaders to advance initiatives to support capital markets and rebuild critical supply chains. In advance of today's summit, J.P. Morgan announced a ten-year, $1.5 trillion investment program. This funding will be directed to sectors critical to national security.

Circle (CRCL), TransDigm (TDG), Onon (ONON), Hudbay (HBM), GlobalFoundries (GFS) and Tencent Music (TME) will report quarterly results before the open. Cisco (CSCO), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Serve Robotics (SERV), Grail (GRAL), Ascendis Pharma (ASND), Celcuity (CELC) and Firefly (FLY) will report after the end of the main session.

Futures on US indices demonstrate upward dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6805-6900 points (from -0.6% to +0.8% of the previous session's closing level).

- Despite the CEO's announcement of ambitious plans during the analyst day, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at the main session on November 11 fell by 2.7%. However, at the postmarket their quotations rose by almost 6% after the publication of details of the strategy, long-term goals and forecasts, assuming, in particular, average annual revenue growth of more than 35% and non-GAAP earnings per share above $20 in the period from three to five years. The company plans to achieve these goals by developing its data center segment, revenue from which is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 60%.

- Oklo (OKLO) shares are up 2% after the startup posted a third-quarter report in which the startup posted a loss per share of $0.2 with a consensus of $0.13. The company is still not generating revenue and is still in the development phase, planning to launch its first commercial unit by 2027. Despite this, its stock price has risen 391% since the beginning of the year amid excitement around nuclear power for AI infrastructure.

- Proficient Auto Logistics (PAL) shares reacted with a 15% jump to the quarterly report's increase in adjusted operating profit from last year's $1.1 million to $4.2 million. Other operating results also improved, with revenue rising 24.9% YoY to $114.3 million. At the same time, the net loss reached $3 million due to restructuring costs.

- According to Bloomberg, Bill Holdings (BILL) is considering various options to change its development strategy, including sale. This led to an increase in its quotations by 15%. The company, which is under pressure from activist investor Starboard Value LP, has engaged a financial advisor to find potential buyers.

- The announcement of a $150 million public offering caused Biohaven's (BHVN) securities to collapse 9% due to the impending dilution of existing shareholders' stakes, although the funds raised are planned to be used for corporate purposes.

November 11 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended predominantly with growth. At the same time the capital inflow from the technological sector resumed. S&P 500 by the end of the session added 0.21%, Dow Jones grew by 1.18%, Russell 2000 rose by 0.11%, and NASDAQ 100 lost 0.31%.

Investors were taking profits in AI-related stocks and shifting funds into cyclical and defensive sectors. Against this background, the equilibrium S&P 500 outperformed its capitalization-weighted counterpart. The "Magnificent Seven" stocks showed mixed performance. NVIDIA (NVDA: -2.96%) and Tesla (TSLA: -1.26%) came under pressure. The healthcare industry (XLV: +2.31%) was the leader of growth, while the technology sector (XLK: -0.85%) was the outsider.

The weekly ADP report recorded an unexpected 11,000 jobs decline, which led to a surge in concerns about the labor market. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October fell to 98.2 points from September's 98.8 with a consensus of 98.3. Respondents cited hiring difficulties and expressed concerns about profitability. Taken together, these data reinforce dovish expectations for further Fed action, as a weakening labor market is a key factor for a shift to monetary easing.

We focus on possible periods of moderate correction and believe that the key growth driver for the rest of the year will remain a combination of gradual rate cuts and positive revaluation of the AI potential of the largest companies.

- NVIDIA stock (NVDA: -2.96%) declined after news that Softbank sold a $5.8 billion stake in the company.

- Life360 (LIF: -22%) collapsed due to a slowdown in MAU growth from 25% in the second quarter to 19% in the third quarter, although the report was stronger than expected and the company delivered a solid guidance. Management also announced the acquisition of advertising company Nativo for $120 mln.

- Fermi (FRMI: -13.4%) reported third-quarter EPS of $0.84, commented on the start of work on its Project Matador campus, noting that current commitments to the project are already close to 20% of target, and reiterated its plan to launch by the end of 2026.

- Nebius Group (NBIS: -7.1%) disappointed investors as its third-quarter EBITDA and revenue fell short of average forecasts and its loss was higher than expected. The company announced a five-year, $3 billion agreement with Meta (META: -0.74%) to build AI infrastructure. It also announced a program to place up to 25 million shares of Class A common stock on the market.

- Rigetti Computing's (RGTI: -5.1%) quarterly results were mixed, with earnings per share beating expectations and revenue disappointing due to problems approving funding from the U.S. federal government.

- According to Fortune, Coinbase (COIN: -4.4%) has backed out of its $2 billion acquisition of UK-based stablecoin-focused startup BVNK. Both companies had been under review since October. Specific reasons for canceling the deal were not disclosed.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor