Morning in New York: focus on inflation statistics and risks of renewed war

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The main macro event of the upcoming session will be the publication of the April US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The consensus assumes a slowdown in the growth of the overall index from March's 0.9% to 0.6% m/m. The mid-market benchmark for the core index (excluding food and energy) is set to rise from 0.2% to 0.3% mom. Freedom Finance forecast for both indicators: +0.4% mom (+3.5% yoy). More subdued expectations are due to the fact that the secondary effects of oil price appreciation look limited so far. A slowdown in inflation will support expectations of Fed policy easing, while an acceleration will signal the sustainability of price pressure.

Also in focus this Tuesday will be the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April (consensus: 96.1 points, March: 95.8), ADP weekly employment dynamics data (previous reading: 39.25k), and federal budget balance statistics for April (consensus: $226 billion, March: -$164.1 billion).

In the afternoon, comments will be made by the heads of FRB Chicago and New York, Austan Goolsbee and John Williams. Their assessments are important for understanding whether the Fed considers the current price risks as a temporary factor or sees reasons to keep tight monetary conditions longer.

The key external factor remains the risk of a new escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain inconclusive. The U.S. is increasing pressure on the adversary and allowing a return to large-scale hostilities. The Iranian side insists on recognizing its conditions and threatens to increase US spending if the settlement process is delayed. Simultaneously, Trump's statements about the need for new duties increase the overall uncertainty in US foreign policy. This keeps the risk of oil supply disruptions, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and additional cost pressures on import-dependent companies.

Prior to the opening of the main session, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Sea (SE), Venture Global (VG), First Majestic Silver (AG), JD.com (JD), Madison Air (MAIR) and Qnity (Q) will report financial results. After the close, Nextpower (NXT), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Karman Space & Defense (KRMN) and JBS (JBS) will report for the latest quarter.

Futures on US stock indices are trading in a moderate negative. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with moderate volatility. The nearest resistance for S&P 500 is located around 7450 points, support is near 7350.

- Shares of PACS Group (PACS) are up more than 20%, reacting to a strong quarterly report and the announcement of a $250 million buyback program. The company's revenue from January to March increased 11.2% YoY to $1.42 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 74.6% to $170.4 million. The stock was further supported by an increase in its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance.

- Quantum Computing (QUBT) is up about 13% after the company reported first-quarter revenue of $3.7 million versus just $39,000 a year earlier. This result was mainly driven by the acquisitions of Luminar Semiconductor and NuCrypt. Cash and cash equivalents and investments at the end of the quarter approached $1.4 billion, but the business is still at an early stage, so the company generated a net loss of $4.1 million, and its contract portfolio is a rather modest $16 million.

- Shares of Super Group (SGHC) are up about 8% on the back of the release of its quarterly results, according to which the issuer's revenue increased 18% YoY to $612 million and Adjusted EBITDA rose 36% to $152 million. The company maintained its 2026 guidance for these metrics above $2.55 billion and $680 million, respectively.

- Shares of Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) are down about 15% as the market took a negative view on deteriorating profitability despite an increase in revenue guidance. It was up 4% YoY in the year-ago period, with gross margin falling from 73% to 65% and adjusted EBITDA slipping to $44.3 million from $91.1 million a year earlier. The pressure is due to the replacement of proprietary versions of GLP-1 drugs with FDA-approved drugs, which worsens margins in the short term. At the same time, the company lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 to $275-350 mln.

- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) loses more than 10% after reporting as the investment community was not happy with the pace of commercialization of the business. Revenue came in at $14.7 million, below average expectations. At the same time, the company confirmed its forecast for 2026 at the level of $150-200 mln. The market is waiting for more confident revenue generation from private partnerships and government contracts.

- MARA Holdings (MARA) shares are down about 5% after the company released a weak quarterly report. The company's revenue declined by 18% YoY, while net loss increased to $1.3 bln. The main pressure is due to a decline in bitcoin price during the quarter and negative revaluation of digital assets by about $1.0 bln. Additional pressure on performance is due to high energy costs and increased competition in mining, which requires more computing power to produce the same amount of bitcoin.

Ma 11 trading on American stock exchanges ended in a moderate plus, although below the intraday highs. S&P 500 added 0.19%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.29%, Dow Jones rose by 0.19%, Russell 2000 - by 0.33%.

The leaders of growth in the broad market were energy (XLE: +2.64%), representatives of the IT industry (XLK: +1.34%), as well as manufacturers of raw materials (XLB: +1.3%). Telecoms (XLC: -1.16%) and consumer staples (XLP: -0.96%) were the outsiders.

The semiconductor segment continued to support the shares of technology companies, adding more than 2%. The most pronounced positive dynamics showed the companies producing memory chips. This was caused by fears associated with a possible strike at Samsung enterprises.

Within the Magnificent Seven, Tesla (TSLA: +3.89%) and Nvidia (NVDA: +1.97%) were the most notable buyers, while the other giants lagged the market.

The U.S. market remained in the plus, despite rising oil prices, rising Treasury bond yields and increased volatility. WTI futures added about 2.8% by the end of the day. Exchange players are putting de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East into their forecasts, especially ahead of the meeting between the leaders of China and the US this week. The main support for stocks is still the artificial intelligence theme, primarily demand for computing power, semiconductors, and infrastructure capital expenditures.

The pressure on securities related to consumer demand and transport becomes more noticeable, because due to the jump in prices for gasoline the expenses of households can be reduced. The theme of hantavirus remained an additional factor of wariness.

Macroeconomic statistics were neutral. Sales in the secondary housing market in April amounted to 4.04 million against the consensus of 4.11 million and generally remained within the narrow range observed since the beginning of the year. The Ministry of Finance's auction of $68 bln of three-year treasuries was slightly weaker than expected, with a 0.6 bps deviation in yields, with the total issue amounting to about $140 bln.

- Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (BW: +30.1%) reported first-quarter revenue growth of 44% YoY to $214.4 mln and a nearly fourfold increase in adjusted EBITDA. Orders reached $2.5 billion with a backlog of $2.7 billion. The company separately noted strong interest from new customers in the AI data center and hyperscaler segments.

- Lumentum Holdings (LITE: +16.5%) will be included in the Nasdaq 100 on May 18, replacing CoStar Group. This is an important technical catalyst for the securities, as index rebalancing typically leads to additional demand from index funds.

- Circle Internet Group (CRCL: +15.9%) generated $694 mln in revenue and income from provisions during the reported quarter, which was below average market expectations. At the same time, the issuer's adjusted EBITDA grew 24% YoY to $151 million, and management reaffirmed key guidance. In addition, investors positively assessed the growth in transaction volumes, the launch of Agent Stack and the increase in USDC on the platform.

- Barrick Mining (B: +9%) reported strong first-quarter results on the back of record gold prices, lower costs and strong free cash flow despite lower production year-over-year. The company maintained its outlook for 2026, reported that preparations for the North American Barrick IPO are on track, and announced a new $3 billion share repurchase program.

- Kodiak Gas Services (KGS: +8.4%) reported better than expected revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Growth was driven by higher-than-expected demand for compressor capacity and improved profitability. The new forecast for 2026 already takes into account the recently acquired energy assets.

- Fox (FOXA: +7.6%) exceeded revenue and earnings expectations for the fiscal third quarter. The results were mainly supported by distribution revenue growth and strong Tubi momentum, while advertising revenue declined due to the lack of effect of last year's Super Bowl.

- Tyson Foods (TSN: -1.9%) came under pressure following reports that the U.S. administration may temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports. For the company, this poses a risk of additional price pressure in the domestic meat market.

- Constellation Energy (CEG: -1.3%) reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings, but the market took a negative view of the company's 2026 guidance, which averaged below consensus. Regulatory issues around data center projects remain an additional factor of uncertainty, despite continued demand for power capacity from AI infrastructure.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor