Morning in New York: focus on producer price index and 30-year bond offering

Daily review and forecast of events on the US stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The US-China talks, on which the bulls had high hopes, failed to catalyze a noticeable rise or fall in the markets, as did the CPI release. New factors are required for a directional move.

The key event on the macroeconomic calendar today will be the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May (consensus for total PPI: +0.2% mom, for core PPI: +0.3% mom).

The weekly unemployment claims statistics will also be published. Freedom Broker's forecast for initial claims is set at 240k vs. the previous 247k. In May, the figure began to gradually increase. If the trend intensifies, it could be the first sign of the growing pressure of import duties on the labor market.

The U.S. Treasury Department will float $22 billion in 30-year bonds, with financial market participants and economists increasingly focused on rising debt and budget deficits.

Donald Trump plans to send letters to major U.S. trading partners over the next two weeks informing them of the amount of tariffs that will go into effect July 9 for trade agreements. The president said countries will be offered a trade deal that they can accept or reject. It is probably implied that the US President will continue on the course of imposing higher import duties.

After the close of the main session on June 12, Adobe (ADBE) and RH (RH) will present quarterly reports.

Futures on American stock indices are down by more than 0.5%. We assess the balance of risks for the current session as moderately negative with average volatility. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 5950-6060 points (from -1.2% to +0.6% to Wednesday's closing level).

- Oracle Corporation (ORCL) shares rose nearly 8% in the postmarket as the company's quarterly revenue and adjusted earnings beat consensus thanks to strong demand for AI solutions. The issuer's guidance for fiscal year 2026, which starts in June, calls for revenue growth of 16% YoY to $67 billion. This guidance is more than $1 billion higher than the previous guidance.

- According to Reuters' sources, CoreWeave (CRWV) will benefit from a partnership between Alphabet (GOOGL) and OpenAI by providing computing power to Google's cloud division, using servers based on Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs.

- BeOne Medicines (ONC) has received approval from the FDA to release its anticancer drug in pill form.

Trades on June 11 on American stock exchanges ended in a slight minus. S&P 500 decreased by 0.27%, Nasdaq 100 corrected by 0.37%, Dow Jones remained unchanged, Russell 2000 dropped by 0.38%. Most of the «Magnificent Seven» stocks moved lower, with Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) under the most pressure. The sectors that make up the broad market index closed mixed. Among the outsiders were manufacturers of cyclical consumer goods (XLY) and consumer staples (XLP), as well as commodity companies (XLB). The energy sector (XLE) emerged as the leader of growth on the back of confident positive dynamics of oil prices.

The lack of clear details about the proposed trade deal with China put pressure on stock prices. In addition, Trump made it clear that he does not intend to abandon the established tariffs on imports from this country. The head of the U.S. Treasury Department Scott Bessent said that the White House is ready to extend the current delay in imposing duties after July 9 for major U.S. trading partners if they demonstrate «good faith» in the negotiations.

The uncertainty increased amid reports of a heightened risk of a direct armed clash with Iran due to the evacuation of employees of U.S. missions in the Middle East;

May was the fourth consecutive month of slowing consumer price growth despite the current course of the US foreign trade policy. The overall CPI (Headline CPI) rose by 0.1% mom and 2.4% y/y with consensus of 0.2% and 2.5% respectively after 2.3% y/y in April. Core inflation (Core CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed to 0.1% mom and 2.8% (consensus: +0.3% and +2.9%), maintaining April's annualized pace.

The slowdown in inflation was the catalyst for the growth in the cost of government bonds, while the successful placement of ten-year $39bn treasuries by the Ministry of Finance led to a decrease in their yields. The spread amounted to -0.7 bp.

- Shares of Oklo (OKLO: +29.5%) soared on news that the U.S. Department of Defense has selected the company to site its Aurora nuclear reactor at Eilson Air Force Base in the state of Alaska.

- Quotes of Quantum Computing (QUBT: +25.4%) showed explosive growth amid Nvidia's (NVDA: -0.8%) CEO's announcement of a tipping point in the quantum computing industry.

- The securities of Papa John's (PZZA: +7.5%) moved steadily higher on news of a purchase offer from Apollo Global Management (APO: +1.8%) and a Qatari investment fund for about $2 billion.

- Shares of the largest U.S. rare earth metals producer MP Materials (MP: -5.8%) reacted negatively to Trump's announcement of a trade agreement reached with a Chinese delegation in London.

- Quotes of Lockheed Martin (LMT: -4.3%) went down as the U.S. Air Force cut its request to Congress for F-35 fighter jets from 48 to 24 units.