Morning in New York: focus on revised labor statistics and Apple's presentation

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Investor attention will be focused today on the release of revised Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data based on payroll employment numbers. Most market participants are predicting a downward revision to the figure for the 12-month period through March 2025. If this deviation from initial estimates is significant, the Fed will have an additional argument for a rate cut in addition to the weak labor market statistics for August. Some media suggest that it may be reduced by 50 bps if the hiring data is accompanied by a slowdown in inflation, statistics of which will be released this week. Freedom Broker analysts maintain their benchmark of a 25bp rate cut at the September meeting.

This Tuesday will also see the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August (consensus: 100.5 p., July: 100.3 p.), which is one of the main macro indicators for this market segment. A higher value of this index will signal an increase in business optimism, which is important for assessing the Fed's further steps.

India, at the BRICS online summit, urged member countries to address trade imbalances, emphasizing that the largest deficits fall on the bloc's partners. Its foreign minister noted that the trade gap with China reached a record $99.21 billion in fiscal year 2025 and $59 billion with Russia amid rising oil purchases. Representatives of China and Brazil have criticized U.S. protectionist policies. Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned of the devastating consequences of tariff wars. Donald Trump, who had earlier labeled BRICS as an anti-US alliance, softened his rhetoric on India, which was welcomed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite tariff pressure and suspended negotiations, analysts see fundamental grounds for preserving the strategic partnership between New Delhi and Washington to create a counterweight to Beijing.

Apple (AAPL) will hold an Awe Dropping presentation. The company is expected to unveil the iPhone 17 series, including the ultra-thin Air variant, as well as updates to the Apple Watch lineup and third-generation AirPods Pro.

Oracle (ORCL), Rubrik (RBRK), GameStop Corp (GME), Synopsys (SNPS) and AeroVironment (AVAV) will present quarterly reports after the close of the main session on September 9.

Futures on US indices are trading in the plus. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with an average level of volatility and focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6460-6540 points (from -0.5% to +0.7% of the previous session's closing level).

- Nebius Group (NBIS) announced a five-year agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) to supply computing power from its data center in New Jersey. The contract is valued at $17.4 billion with a possible increase to $19.4 billion. On this news, NBIS quotes soared more than 40% in extended trading.

-Anglo American has announced a merger with Teck Resources Limited (TECK). The new Anglo Teck structure, with 62.4% stake in the former company and the remainder in the latter, will be based in Canada with a primary listing in London. The synergies are estimated at $800 million by the fourth year after completion of the transaction. The combined market capitalization exceeds $53 billion.

-Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat analysts' expectations for earnings per share ($5.77 vs. $5.03) and revenue ($4.57 billion vs. $4.48 billion), but kept its full-year guidance unchanged. The company reiterated plans to open at least 80 new stores. EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 assumes a 10-12% increase. CASY shares were down 1.4% on the premarket.

- Novartis AG (NOVN) has agreed to acquire Tourmaline Bio (TRML) for approximately $1.4 billion in cash. This implies a valuation of $48 per share, or 59% higher than the last close. The deal will allow the Swiss pharma company to expand its portfolio with experimental therapies for cardiovascular diseases.

September 8 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended on a positive territory. The S&P 500 rose by 0.21%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.46%, the Dow Jones added 0.25%, the Russell 2000 - 0.16%. The technology sector (XLK: +0.75%) and consumer discretionary providers (XLY: +0.39%) were slightly better than the broader market. Outperformers included utilities (XLU: -1.02%) and the real estate industry (XLRE: -0.66%). In the Magnificent Seven, Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) showed the most pronounced positive dynamics, while Tesla (TSLA) was the laggard.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell to its lowest since April at 4.04%. The dollar remained under pressure. Oil reacted with growth to OPEC+ decision to slightly increase production limits in October. Gold updated historical highs.

Inflation expectations, according to FRB New York surveys for August, rose by 0.1 p.p. to 3.2% in the annual horizon, three- and five-year benchmarks remained unchanged. Respondents' assessment of the probability of quickly finding a job in case of its loss turned out to be the lowest since June 2013.

Consumer credit rose to $16.01 billion after $7.37 in July with a consensus of $10 billion, reflecting improved consumer confidence and the public's willingness to borrow, which could be supportive of economic activity.

-Planet Labs (PL: +47.9%) beat average forecasts for quarterly earnings and revenue. The company's EBITDA unexpectedly turned into a plus. Management raised its revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2026 and highlighted new contracts, including orders from the German government, NATO and the Pentagon.

-QuantumScape (QS: +21.1%) unveiled its QSE-5 solid-state batteries on a Ducati motorcycle at the IAA Mobility show in Munich. These are the first anode-free batteries to be used in a real vehicle, an important step for the commercialization of the company's technology.

-Summit Therapeutics (SMMT: -25.2%) came under heavy pressure due to analysts' negative assessment of clinical trial results for ivonescimab, a lung cancer therapy.

- T-Mobile US (TMUS: -3.9%) quotes reacted negatively to the news of SpaceX buying spectrum licenses from EchoStar (SATS: +19%) for $17 billion, adding to concerns about competition in the telecom sector.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor