Morning in New York: geopolitics and corporate news shape market sentiment

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key macroeconomic event on October 16 will be the publication of the business activity index from the FRB Philadelphia for October. The consensus forecast suggests a sharp slowdown to 10.0 points from 23.2 in September. This result, if confirmed, may increase concerns about the weakening of the manufacturing sector and become an argument for supporters of further easing of the MPC.

However, investors' focus may be shifted towards the geopolitical and regulatory agenda. The market will analyze the outcome of the talks between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which, as Trump stated, resulted in New Delhi agreeing to stop buying Russian oil. Although the exact timing of this move remains unclear, this development may lead to a redistribution of flows in the global energy market and affect oil prices.

Corporate reporting season continues, market attention will focus on the results of a number of large companies. Charles Schwab (SCHW), KeyCorp (KEY), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK) and Infosys (INFY) will report before the market opens. After the market close, CSX Corporation (CSX), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) and Liberty Energy (LBRT).

US index futures are showing moderate growth. We assess the balance of risks as neutral, volatility may remain at an elevated level due to uncertainty and geopolitical tension. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6620-6730 points (from -0.7% to +0.9% to the previous session's closing level).

- Salesforce (CRM) unveiled updated medium-term goals at the DreamForce conference, outlining annual revenue growth of 10-11% and operating margin improvement to 35% by 2026. Management emphasized the contribution of AI solutions in expanding its customer base and improving sales effectiveness. The stock is up about 3.6% following the market's positive reaction to the strategic guidance.

- A strong quarterly report sparked a rally in shares of transportation company J.B. Hunt (JBHT), which is up 12%. The company reported revenue of $3.05 billion and earnings of $1.76 per share, well above analysts' expectations ($3.03 billion and $1.46, respectively), signaling improvement in the logistics industry.

- Shares of United Airlines (UAL) are down 1.9% after the close of trading, despite the fact that quarterly earnings per share ($2.78) beat expectations ($2.62), and the forecast for the fourth quarter was above consensus. The pressure on quotes was put by the revenue for the third quarter - $15.23 billion against the expected $15.33 billion.

- Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) are rising after posting record Q3 results. Revenue totaled NT$989.9 billion (+30.3% YoY) with NT$977.5 billion forecast, while net income reached NT$452.3 billion (+39.1% YoY), beating expectations of NT$417.7 billion. The main driver is the high-performance computing (HPC) segment, which accounted for 57% of sales amid robust demand for AI chips.

- The weak outlook for fiscal 2026, presented in a meeting with analysts, caused Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) shares to fall 9%. The company expects revenue growth in the range of 5-10%, well below market expectations (about 17%). This was the reason for the sell-off.

Trading on October 15 ended mostly up. S&P 500 rose by 0.40%, Nasdaq 100 added 0.68%, and Russell 2000 - 0.97%, while Dow Jones symbolically decreased by 0.04%. The key driver of growth for the market was the start of the reporting season, in particular, strong results of major banks, which supported the thesis about the stability of the American consumer. The real estate sector (XLRE: +1.45%) was the leader of growth, while the materials sector (XLB: -0.45%) was the outsider.

The key macro event of the day was the publication of the Fed's Beige Book, but it did not have a significant impact on sentiment as it only stated that economic activity has remained largely unchanged in recent weeks. According to the report, wages continued to rise, while the pressure on prices increased due to tariffs. The picture was completed by the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in New York, which exceeded expectations, jumping from -8.7 to 10.7 points.

Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials once again demonstrated the lack of a unified stance: "dove" Miran once again called for a rate cut, while Waller expressed a more cautious stance. Against this background, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the U.S. will not change its tough stance in negotiations with China, despite the volatility in the markets. However, he allowed the possibility of extending the trade truce in exchange for concessions from Beijing on the issue of rare earth metals.

- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS: +16.2%) shares jumped after announcing the launch of a hormone therapy program for menopausal and perimenopausal women. The company reported surpassing the 500,000 subscriber mark for Hers and outlined an annual revenue target of over $1 billion by 2026.

- Morgan Stanley (MS: +4.8%) shares rose on the back of strong quarterly results, with EPS of $2.80 (+49% YoY, +31% QoQ), 33% above expectations, and revenue of $18.2bn (+18% YoY), beating estimates by 9%. The main driver was Institutional Securities segment with revenue growth to $8.5 bln (+25% YoY) on the back of revival in ECM/DCM and inflows into assets under management ($81 bln, +27% YoY).

- Shares of Bank of America (BAC:+4.4%) rose on strong Q3 2025 earnings reporting, with revenue of $28.1bn (+11% y/y) against consensus of $27.5bn and EPS reaching $1.06 (+31% y/y), beating expectations by 11%. The growth was supported by net interest income of $15.23bn (+9% YoY) and a decline in provisions to $1.3bn (-16% YoY), while the efficiency ratio improved to 62 from 65 a year earlier.

- Shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT: -2.4%) declined after the release of neutral results for Q3 2025: revenues amounted to $11.37 bln (+6.9% YoY), which was in line with expectations. The Medical Devices segment remained the main growth driver (+14.8% YoY), especially Diabetes Care (+20.5% YoY), while Diagnostics continued to decline (-6.6% YoY) due to lower demand for COVID tests. The company reiterated organic revenue growth guidance of 7.5-8.0% and narrowed its EPS range to $5.12-5.18, which the market took with restraint due to the lack of positive surprises.

- TrueCar (TRUE: +62.2%) shares soared after the company announced a buyout deal: shareholders are being offered $2.55 per share in the deal, valuation of $277 million, and expected closing in Q4 2025 or early 2026.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor