Morning in New York: Inflation data will set the tone for trading

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key factor for investors this Tuesday will be the publication of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July (core consensus: +0.3% m/m). Freedom Broker analysts forecast it to rise by 0.35% m/m, reflecting the expected impact of tariffs on basic goods, where the gain could be around 0.65% m/m. If the actual reading is closer to 0.2% m/m with moderate growth in this category (<0.4%), the probability of a rate cut in September will increase sharply as the balance of risks shifts from non-major inflation concerns to labor market conditions. Acceleration of CPI growth to 0.4% and above will actualize forecasts of inflation acceleration and the beginning of stagflation. In this case, the Fed will face a very difficult choice at the September meeting.

The realization of pessimistic expectations regarding CPI can lead to an increase in the yields of treasuries and a significant weakening of risk appetite.

Donald Trump has announced his intention to nominate A.J. Anthony, a consistent critic of the agency and currently chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). If confirmed by the Senate, he could succeed Erica McEnturfer, who was fired on August 1 after allegations of manipulation of labor market data.

Circle Internet (CRCL), Sea (SE) and Pony Ai (PONY) will present their quarterly reports before the start of trading. CoreWeave (CRWV), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), CAVA Group (CAVA) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) will publish their financial results after the closing of the main session.

Futures on US indices demonstrate sideways dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with a high level of volatility. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6280-6450 points (from -1.5% to +1.2% of the previous session's closing level).

- Donald Trump's rhetoric at a meeting with Intel (INTC) CEO Lip-Bu Tan softened after recent calls for his resignation. The two sides discussed measures to strengthen the U.S. position in chip technology and manufacturing. Against this backdrop, INTC shares rose about 3% after the close of Monday's main trading.

- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) quotes reacted positively to the publication of the second quarter financials. The company recorded a loss per share of $0.41 on revenue of $1.15 mln, while the consensus was for a result of $5.56 mln. Management's guidance for the year assumes revenue in the range of $50-75 mln. Management is focusing on scaling a satellite network compatible with conventional mobile devices. The company's CEO said it is building "the first and only global cellular broadband network in space."

- Chinese companies have been advised by the authorities to avoid using NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 processors and some AI gas pedals from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), especially when implementing government projects. This calls into question the prospects of the mentioned manufacturers' sales recovery in the PRC.

- Shares of Archer Aviation (ACHR) declined on the back of a quarterly release that reflected a loss above analysts' expectations, despite progress in aircraft production and continued strong liquidity.

- Elon Musk has threatened Apple (AAPL) with a lawsuit accusing the company of violating antitrust laws over the ranking of the Grok app, owned by his startup xAI, in the App Store. According to Musk, Apple's policy makes it impossible for AI companies other than OpenAI to take the first position in the app store.

August 11 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended in a slight negative. S&P 500 decreased by 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 lost 0.36%, Dow Jones fell by 0.45%, and Russell 2000 - by 0.09%. Most broad market sectors closed in the red zone. Energy companies (XLE: -0.8%) were the outsiders. Communications companies (XLC: +0.51%) were the top gainers. Among the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, only Tesla (TSLA: +2.85%) was in the plus zone.

Donald Trump has decided to postpone for 90 days the introduction of increased duties on Chinese goods. Thus, the deadline has been moved to mid-November, which was the result of the July negotiations in Stockholm. Also, the head of the White House urged Beijing to quadruple its purchases of U.S. soybeans, the exchange prices for which have gone up against this background, although the agreement on this issue has not yet been confirmed.

According to Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the search for a candidate to become the new Fed chief, will conduct additional interviews in the coming weeks. Jerome Powell could be replaced by his deputy for supervision Michelle Bowman, Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson or FRB Dallas President Laurie Logan. The media also mentioned former St. Louis FRB head James Bullard and former George Bush Jr. advisor Mark Samerlin in this capacity. However, the favorite remains the head of the Board of Governors Christopher Waller, who is considered the guarantor of policy continuity and independence of the Fed.

- Tegna (TGNA: +29.8%) is in an advanced stage of negotiations to be acquired by Nexstar Media (NXST: +3.9%). If there are no complications at the final stage of its discussions, the deal may be finalized in the near future.

- RadNet (RDNT: +16.2%) reported better than expected adjusted EBITDA and revenue for the second quarter. The company reported strong growth in total and comparable procedure volume, with a continued shift toward high-tech diagnostics. The company raised its own full-year guidance for the Imaging Center segment.

- TKO Group Holdings (TKO: +10.2%) has entered into a seven-year agreement for the UFC's media rights with annual license fees of $1.1 billion. Paramount Skydance (PSKY: -3.7%) will be the exclusive distributor of the full suite of UFC broadcasts, including 13 key tournaments and 30 Fight Night events per year.

- Micron Technology (MU: +4.1%) raised its earnings, revenue and gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year. The reasons for this were the improved pricing environment, especially in the DRAM memory segment, as well as strong execution of operating plans.

- AAON (AAON: -10.5%) reported second-quarter earnings and revenue below consensus amid an 18% decline in sales at its AAON Oklahoma segment. Performance growth in the Coil Products division was limited by the implementation of an ERP system. The outlook for the current quarter and the full fiscal year 2025 was downgraded.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor