Morning in New York: Inflation statistics for August will set the course of trading

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The main event of the upcoming session will be the consumer inflation (CPI) statistics for August (consensus for core and total: +0.3% mom, July: +0.2% and +0.3%). Freedom Broker's forecasting model suggests a 0.32% m/m rise in overall CPI and a 0.31% m/m rise in core CPI. The data corresponding to these benchmarks, according to market participants, will not be an obstacle for the Fed to cut the Fed Funds rate at the next meeting. If the results turn out to be higher, it will cast doubt on the realizability of the scenario of soft landing of the economy. The uncertainty is reinforced by the fact that in the coming days there will be no official comments from the regulator, capable of smoothing out volatility: before the FOMC meeting there is traditionally a period of "silence". If the CPI data, as well as the PPI statistics released the previous day, are below expectations, it will add arguments in favor of more active easing of monetary policy along with the labor market report for August. This would be a growth driver for the stock market.

As usual on Thursdays, weekly jobless claims data will be released (consensus: 235k, Freedom Broker target: 250k, previous value: 237k).Further increase in the number of applications for benefits, especially after the mentioned weak report of the Ministry of Labor for August, will be perceived as an additional signal of the need to ease monetary policy.

Kroger Co. (KR) will report quarterly results before the open of trading. Adobe (ADBE) will report after the end of the main session.

Futures on US indices are trading in a slight plus. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with an average level of volatility. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6460-6610 points (from -1.1% to +1.2% of the previous session's closing level).

- The $3.2 billion convertible bond offering was a positive driver for Alibaba (BABA) shares, adding about 2% in the premarket. The company will use the funds to scale data centers, develop AI infrastructure and international trade.

-Opendoor (OPEN) stock is adding over 30% in the premarket after announcing the appointment of former top Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as CEO. The decision was made at the request of investors, including Opendoor co-founder Keith Rabois, who will now take over as chairman.

- Shares ofOxford Industries (OXM) are up more than 15% in extended trading. Despite weaker-than-expected revenue, market participants were positive on the company's adjusted earnings per share, which beat analysts' forecasts. The key positive factor was management's statement that the negative impact of tariffs on financial results in the current year will be less than previously expected due to compensation of about half of potential costs. The issuer will pay $0.69 per share as dividend for the quarter.

- Quotes of biopharmaceutical companyAvidity Biosciences (RNA) are losing more than 20% due to the announced plan to conduct an additional offering of shares for $500 million with the possibility of increasing the offer by another $75 million. Although the proceeds will be used to develop key clinical programs and commercial infrastructure, the dilution of shares of current shareholders caused a negative market reaction.

September 10 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended mixed. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 updated historical highs, rising by 0.3% and 0.04%, respectively. Dow Jones declined by 0.48%, Russell 2000 lost 0.16%. The key driver of growth was IT sector news related to the report of Oracle (ORCL), which significantly expanded its order book thanks to contracts with OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and other companies. At the same time, management expects the order book to exceed $500 billion in the coming months. This allowed the technology sector to become the growth leader (XLK: +1.81%). Cyclical consumer goods producers were the outsiders (XLY: -1.2%).

The key macroeconomic event of the day was the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, down 0.1% mom at both the overall and core levels, with a consensus of +0.3% mom. July results were revised from +0.9 mom to +0.7% mom. The unexpected slowdown in manufacturing inflation sparked discussion of a possible weakening in demand, which offset the expected effect of tariffs in the form of higher prices. In addition, PPI data was perceived as an additional argument for easing monetary policy at the upcoming September 16-17 Fed meeting.

- Klarna (KLAR) successfully completed its $1.37 billion IPO at $40 per share, trading opened at $52, with a 14.6% increase in the first day.

- Despite strong quarterly results and an increase in ARR forecast, Rubrik (RBRK: -18.1%) shares fell sharply. Investors locked in profits after the stock rose nearly 90% over the past six months, questioning the sustainability of the pace of business expansion.

- RaceTrac is buying restaurant chainPotbelly (PBPB: +31.3%) for $566 million in cash, which implies a 32% premium to the previous closing price.

- The White House is considering imposing restrictions on drug imports from China, which put pressure on the quotes of pharmaceutical companySummit Therapeutics (SMMT: -6.5%).

- A more conservative EPS outlook than the investment community had anticipated and concerns about profitability dynamics amid slowing consumer spending growth led to a selloff in shares of online retailerChewy (CHWY: -16.6%).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor