Morning in New York: investors in search of guidance

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Capital Markets Research, Freedom Broker.

The key external factor for stock exchange players remains the situation in the Middle East. The current phase of U.S.-Iranian negotiations is focused on cessation of hostilities. An interim memorandum should ensure the restoration of ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has sent a response to the US peace proposal, but US President Donald Trump has called the option unacceptable and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the conflict cannot be considered over until the issue of the Islamic republic's nuclear program is resolved. Partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz to traffic would avoid an energy shock, but would not eliminate the threat of disruptions in oil and gas supplies and general logistical problems.

This Monday will be published data on housing sales in the secondary market for April. This statistic will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of stock exchanges, however, deviation from forecasts in any direction will affect the market guidelines regarding the dynamics of GDP in the current quarter.

Quarterly results were released by Barrick Mining (B). Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Constellation Energy (CEG), Mosaic (MOS), FS KKR Capital (FSK), Fox Corporation (FOXA) and monday.com (MNDY) will report financial results before the opening of the main session. Quarterly reports from Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Mara Holdings (MARA), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Quantum Computing (QUBT), 3D Systems (DDD) and Microvast Holdings (MVST ) will be released after the close.

Futures on American stock indices demonstrate about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with increased volatility. The sixth consecutive week of growth in the S&P 500, supported by a strong reporting season and steady demand for AI infrastructure, forms a bullish inertia. At the same time, the lack of progress in resolving the US-Iran conflict reinforces inflation risks due to high energy prices.

- Nintendo (NTDOY) sharescollapsed 8% in Tokyo trading after the company announced that it will raise the price of its Switch 2 console in the U.S. from $449.99 to $499.99 from September 1, and in Japan by 10,000 yen from May 25. The company was further pressured by its own forecast, which suggested a 17% YoY decline in console sales to 16.5 million and a 27% drop in net income.

- Alibaba's (BABA) stock may get support amid the announcement of Qwen's AI model integration with Taobao and Tmall marketplaces. The solution will allow users to search, compare and buy products through a dialog with an AI assistant accessing a catalog of more than 4 billion items. The news reinforces the AI narrative in the Chinese tech segment ahead of the company's quarterly report on Ma 13.

- Apollo Global Management (APO) will be in the spotlight after the WSJ reported that it is in talks to sell MidCap Financial Investment (MFIC), a publicly traded direct lending fund with a portfolio of about $3 billion. The default rate in the fund has risen from 3.9% at the end of 2025 to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Its shares are trading at a discount of about 15% to net asset value. The deal signals mounting pressure in the BDC sector amid a wave of debt redemption requests.

- Quotes of Saudi Aramco on local markets may react positively to the growth of adjusted net income for the first quarter (+26% YoY, to $33.6 bln), which exceeded the consensus. The key driver of this growth was the strategic pipeline reaching full capacity. This allowed the corporation to compensate for transit restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. Its results confirm that high oil prices provide high profitability for the largest hydrocarbon producers.

- Netflix (NFLX) continues to step up its prioritization of ad revenue. Currently, its standard ad-free plan is about $19.99 per month, while a plan with commercial ads will cost about $8.99. The appeal of this offering to price-sensitive users supports the growth in ad revenue, which the company plans to double in 2026.

On Ma. 8, trading on American stock exchanges ended on a positive territory. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.84% and 2.35%, respectively, having once again updated the historical maximums. The Russell 2000 added 0.76%, and the Dow Jones rose by a symbolic 0.02%.

The main positive driver was the confirmation of stable demand for computing power for artificial intelligence. Against this background, a rally developed in the securities of semiconductor manufacturers. The "Magnificent Seven" traditionally acted as the driving force, with Nvidia (NVDA: +1.75% at the close of trading on Ma. 8), Tesla (TSLA: +4.02%) and Apple (AAPL: +2.05% ) showing the strongest dynamics among its components.

The concentration of capital in the technology segment made the IT sector the absolute growth leader (XLK: +3.44%). Utilities (XLU: -0.89%) and healthcare (XLV: -0.85%) were the outsiders on the back of the outflow of funds from protective assets.

Macroeconomic statistics were mixed, but generally supported a positive sentiment. According to the Labor Department, non-farm payrolls for April came in at 115k with a consensus of 62k, and the strong March data was revised upward. Unemployment remained at 4.3% as expected, but hourly wage growth slowed. The Consumer Sentiment Index for Ma from the University of Ma from the University of Michigan, according to preliminary estimates, fell to a historic low of 48.2 points (forecast: 49.5). The negative effect was mitigated by a decline in the annual inflation expectations of the population from 4.7% to 4.5%. The favorable state of the labor market with a slowdown in wage inflation was another proof of the economy's stability.

Chicago FRB head Austan Goolsbee said a rate cut is not the only option being considered by the Fed. Fears of further escalation of the Middle East conflict continue to limit broader investor participation in the rally outside of the IT sector.

- Rocket Lab (RKLB: +34.3% at the close of trading on Ma. 8) beat expectations on all key metrics, with its backlog reaching $2.2 billion. Additionally, a $30 million agreement with Anduril Industries to test hypersonic aircraft and the largest contract with an unnamed customer in the company's history helped the stock reach all-time highs.

- WSJ reported on a tentative agreement between Intel (INTC: +13.9%) and Apple (AAPL: 2.05%) for contract manufacturing of processors for the latter's devices. The U.S. government, which has become Intel's largest shareholder, played a key role in advancing the deal, which had been under negotiation for more than a year. For Intel, this is the most significant signal of confidence in the company's business from a major customer.

- Former bitcoin miner IREN (IREN: +7.7%) cemented its position in the AI infrastructure segment by signing a five-year contract with Nvidia (NVDA: +1.75%) to provide cloud-based GPU services valued at $3.4 billion. As part of the strategic partnership, Nvidia also received the right to purchase up to 30 million IREN shares at $70, equivalent to a potential investment of $2.1 billion.

- CoreWeave (CRWV: -11.4%) reported a doubling of revenue and a record backlog approaching $100 billion. However, the company kept its full-year guidance unchanged and gave a more cautious guidance for the second quarter than the market expected. In addition, due to the high capital intensity of AI cloud scaling, the company's loss increased.

- BILL Holdings (BILL: +11.1%) reported operating profit above consensus by more than 20% in its most recently reported quarter, driven by margin expansion. Investors were mainly focused on the announcement of up to 30% staff reduction as part of its transition to an AI-centric model and approval of a $1 billion share repurchase program.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor