Morning in New York: investors need a breather

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The upcoming trades, according to our forecasts, will pass without sharp fluctuations due to the absence of significant macroeconomic and corporate releases.

Data on consumer lending for June recorded an increase in its volume from May's $5.1 bln to $7.37 bln. This value was close to the consensus, so the released statistics should not have a significant impact on the market dynamics.

Geopolitical factors will influence the movements of quotations of the energy sector and assets sensitive to external risks. This Friday, the ultimatum issued by President Trump to Russia expires. At the same time, the White House confirmed its readiness for a face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin. The threat of new sanctions while simultaneously trying to resolve the situation diplomatically creates a highly uncertain backdrop.

The presidential administration has nominated economic adviser Stephen Miran to replace the retiring Adriana Kugler on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran is known as a supporter of Donald Trump's tariff policy and co-author of a plan to weaken the dollar, making his appointment an important signal of the future course of economic policy. It is seen as a tactical move to increase the White House's influence on monetary policy in the short term.

The U.S. President signed an executive order opening up 401(k) retirement plans to alternative investments. This decision was part of a structural reform that fundamentally improves the long-term outlook for the alternative investment sector and could be a driver for private equity managers' equities.

Tempus AI (TEM), EOG Resources (EOG), TeraWulf (WULF), Wendy's (WEN), Under Armour (UA), Fubo (FUBO) and Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) will release quarterly reports before the main session opens.

Futures on US indices show moderately positive dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with an average level of volatility. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6300-6400 points (from -0.6% to +0.9% to the previous session's closing level).

 - Expedia Group (EXPE) shares soared 16.6% after posting a strong second-quarter report, with results broadly in line with consensus. The key driver of the stock's growth was an increase in the company's full-year guidance for revenue and gross bookings growth.

- The Trade Desk (TTD) shares fell sharply due to weak second-quarter results. The company's revenue growth slowed from last year's 26% YoY to 19% YoY, signaling a possible cooling of the digital advertising market. The departure of its CFO also added to the uncertainty.

- Shares of Block (XYZ) gained, although its quarterly results were below expectations. The main positive driver was an increase in full-year gross profit guidance and sustained improvement in key ecosystems Cash App (+16% y/y) and Square (+11% y/y). According to management, this signals strong consumer demand.

- Rocket Lab (RKLB) securities were under pressure after the release of its quarterly report. The space corporation reported revenues of $144 mln, compared to the consensus of $135 mln, while the loss per share was $0.13, although the expected result was $0.1. In addition, management gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for the third quarter. Investors are also concerned about the increase in operating expenses for the development of the Neutron launch vehicle.

- Shares of Tesla (TSLA) reacted with a slight decline on news that the team developing the Dojo supercomputer has been disbanded and its chief executive is leaving the company. This calls into question a key element of its long-term strategy to build its own AI chips.

August 7 trades on the U.S. markets ended mostly in the negative. S&P 500 fell by an insignificant 0.08%, Dow Jones lost 0.51%, Russell 2000 fell by 0.3%. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.32% thanks to the continuation of the rally in Apple shares (AAPL).

The dynamics of quotations was determined by the entry into force of new global tariffs and data indicating the weakening of the labor market. Shares of the "Magnificent Seven" traded on the positive territory. The defensive utilities sector (XLU: +1.09%) became the leaders of growth. The healthcare industry (XLV: -1.15%) was the outsider, pressured by disappointing data from a study of one of Eli Lilly's (LLY) drugs.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the past week rose to 226 thousand with a consensus of 225 thousand. However, the number of those continuing to receive benefits with average expectations of 1.95 million reached 1.974 million, renewing the maximum since November 2021. These data confirm the emerging trend towards cooling of the labor market, which was the main reason for the softening of the rhetoric of some representatives of the Fed's leadership and strengthening expectations for a rate cut.

The trade agenda remained in focus after import duties for US partners took effect. The 100% semiconductor tariff exemptions announced by the White House supported shares of Apple (AAPL) and TSMC (TSM), which have committed to investing in manufacturing in the US. However, the positive reaction to this news was brief, as market uncertainty remains high as to which other countries and industries will be able to receive duty exemptions.

- Strong growth in paid subscribers and revenue, as well as a strong outlook for the third quarter and full year 2025, were the drivers of Duolingo's (DUOL: +13.8%) share price performance.

- Revenue and profit of Celsius Holdings (CELH: +17.2%) exceeded average market expectations. Management recognized the positive contribution from the expansion of distribution outlets and successful marketing campaigns.

- The results of the key trial phase of the oral weight loss drug (orforglipron) led to a collapse in Eli Lilly (LLY: -14.1%). Although the company's current financial results exceeded forecasts, investors prioritized the state of its product portfolio.

- Intel (INTC: -3%) shares were pressured by Donald Trump's call for CEO Lip-Bu Tan to resign immediately over his alleged ties to Chinese firms.

- Joby Aviation (JOBY: -8.9%) declined following the release of its second-quarter report, in which its operating loss widened 16% YoY to $168 million due to higher R&D costs as the company ramped up production at its pilot line.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor