Morning in New York: investors wait for signals from consumers

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key macroeconomic event of the day will be the publication of the preliminary index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for September (consensus: 58 points, August: 58.2 points). After the previous day's mixed inflation data and growing signs of labor market cooling, the inflation expectations component of this report will be of particular importance for investors, which is important for predicting the Fed's future moves. A decline in the indicator may strengthen the market's confidence in the regulator's readiness to move to easing monetary policy, while an increase will be a reminder of the remaining price risks.

Against this background, the legal confrontation between the White House and the Fed continues to develop. The night before, it became known that the presidential administration filed an appeal against the court decision to block the suspension of Governor Lisa Cook. The White House intends to achieve a favorable verdict even before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week. This increases legal uncertainty for the regulator's leadership, but does not change the underlying market scenario for a rate cut.

No significant corporate reports are scheduled for today.

Futures on US indices show about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6550-6620 points (from -0.6% to +0.5% to the previous session's closing level).

- Strong third-quarter results and an increase in full-year guidance amid robust demand for AI tools drove Adobe (ADBE) shares up more than 3% in the premarket. The company's revenue rose 11% YoY to $5.99 billion and adjusted EPS came in at $5.31, beating analysts' expectations.

-Microsoft (MSFT) and OpenAI have agreed on preliminary terms that will pave the way for the latter's transformation into a commercial company. The partners are still negotiating the details, while Microsoft expects to retain access to key OpenAI developments. On this news, MSFT shares added about 1.5% on the premarket.

- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is up 6% in extended trading after announcing the launch of widely available solutions based on NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra chips, confirming the company's position as a key partner with Nvidia in the development of next-generation AI infrastructure.

- Shares of Rent the Runway (RENT) collapsed after the publication of the report for the second quarter. The issuer's loss grew from last year's $15.6 mln to $26.4 mln. Investors ignored the company's revenue growth by 2.5% YoY to $80.9 mln and the increase in the number of its subscribers, focusing on the increase in operating costs, which amounted to 14% YoY.

- Shares of premium furniture retailer RH (RH) are down significantly after the report for the second quarter, which was weaker than expected both in terms of revenue and profit. Additional pressure on quotes came from a lowering of the guidepost for full-year revenue growth from 10-13% to 9-11%. CEO Gary Friedman attributed the cautious outlook to "uncertainty in tariff policy and the worst situation in the housing market in 50 years," which intensified the selloff.

Trading on September 11 on the U.S. stock exchanges ended with strong growth. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.85% and 0.6% respectively, having updated the historical maximums. The Dow Jones rose 1.36% and the Russell 2000 outperformed, soaring 1.83%. Among the Magnificent Seven, Tesla (TSLA: +6%) stood out, while the movements of other technology giants were mixed. All 11 sectors included in the S&P 500 closed in the green zone. Materials producers (XLB: +2.09%) led the growth, while the energy sector (XLE: +0.02%) was the outsider on the back of falling oil prices.

The dynamics of stock indices was determined by the publication of consumer inflation (CPI) data for August. The general indicator grew by 0.4% m/m with the consensus of 0.3%, while the core indicator, more important for the Fed, added 0.3% m/m in line with forecasts. The market took these data positively, as the coincidence of the base indicator with expectations was considered as a sufficient reason for resumption of the monetary policy easing cycle following the results of the upcoming Fed meeting next week. This thesis was supported by the labor market statistics: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits jumped to 263 thousand, reaching a four-year high and confirming the trend of worsening employment situation.

The market was additionally supported by the situation on the debt market. The auction for placement of 30-year government bonds was successful, and foreign investors showed strong demand for treasuries. This somewhat eased recent concerns about the large supply of government debt and the market's ability to absorb it. There were also positive signals on the trade front: it became known that the EU is unlikely to raise duties on goods from China and India, despite US recommendations.

- Media reports that Paramount Skydance (PSKY: +15.6%) is preparing a takeover bid were a growth driver for shares of media giant Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD: +28.9%).

- The settlement of the patent dispute over the drug Rinvoq, which will prevent competing versions from reaching the US market until April 2037, supported AbbVie shares (ABBV: +4%).

- Boeing 's (BA: -3.3%) CEO said at an industry conference that there have been delays in the certification of the 777X family of airliners, which was previously scheduled for 2026.

- Broadcom (AVGO: -2.7%) shares came under pressure after DigiTimes reported Apple's progress in developing its own N1 chip, which could reduce the dependence of the next iPhone models on Broadcom products.

- Despite raising its third-quarter revenue guideposts, Delta Air Lines (DAL: -1.6%) shares reacted negatively to management's warning of rising operating expenses (excluding fuel) and disappointing transatlantic results.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor