Morning in New York: keeping a balance in the news flow

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The participants of the upcoming session will focus on the international agenda. Donald Trump, following last Friday's talks with Vladimir Putin, said that the end of the war in Ukraine depends on the decision of Vladimir Zelensky, with whom the White House head will meet this Monday in Washington. The US - Russian Federation summit did not result in a ceasefire agreement, but was described as "productive". Trump's special envoy Steve Whitkoff noted that Moscow had agreed for the first time to the possibility of providing Kiev with security guarantees similar to Article Five of the NATO charter, an unexpected concession. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that peace is still a long way off. After meeting with the Ukrainian president, Trump intends to talk to European leaders about the terms of a possible compromise with Russia. Investors will assess the risks of pressure on Kiev in terms of territorial concessions and the possibility of changing the U.S. sanctions policy. Any movement towards a resolution of the conflict could reduce demand for protective assets and support growth in equities, while hints of a stalemate or increased pressure on Ukraine will increase uncertainty in the markets.

Of interest on the macro calendar today is the release of the NAHB Housing Market Index for August (consensus: 34, July: 33). Builder sentiment continues to remain in depressed territory.

Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) will publish quarterly results before the opening of main trading. Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Fabrinet (FN), XP (XP) and Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFAI) will report at the post-market.

Futures on US indices demonstrate about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for today as neutral with average volatility. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6400-6500 points (from -0.8% to +0.8% of the previous session's closing level).

-Novo Nordisk (NVO) has received FDA approval for the use of Wegovy for the therapy of liver fibrosis in adults. This is the first approval for a GLP-1 class drug against this disease.

- Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has filed for an IPO.

- Meta (META) is restructuring its AI business for the fourth time in six months. The Superintelligence Labs division will be divided into four blocks, the number of data centers will increase, capex will be raised to $72 billion, and another $29 billion will be raised in the form of financing, including debt. This signals a strategic bet by the corporation's management on AI, but raises questions because of the serious increase in costs.

- Current and former OpenAI employees are set to sell nearly $6 billion worth of stock to investors including SoftBank Group (SFTBY) and Thrive Capital, which could raise the company's valuation from the current $300 billion to $500 billion.

-Tesla (TSLA) has nearly halved the cost of monthly leasing in the UK amid a sales slump that hit 60% y/y in July (987 units sold). According to The Times, the company is offering discounts of up to 40% to leasing firms in an attempt to unload warehouses.

August 15 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended mostly in a slight negative. S&P 500 decreased by 0.29%, Nasdaq 100 lost 0.51%, Russell 2000 fell by 0.55%, only Dow Jones added a symbolic 0.08%. The dynamics of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks was mixed, which limited the overall movement of the indices. The healthcare industry (XLV: +1.68%) was the leader of growth thanks to representatives of medical insurance and pharmaceutical companies. The financial sector (XLF: -1.04%) was the outsider.

Consensus retail sales data for July recorded a 0.5% m/m increase, the result for June was revised upward to 0.9%. The indicator of the benchmark group of goods taken into account in GDP added 0.5%, which was slightly higher than expected. Positive dynamics was demonstrated by sales volumes of cars, furniture, sporting goods, clothing, as well as online retailing. Sales in catering decreased, negative dynamics was noted in the segments of electronics and building materials. The statistics confirmed the stability of consumer demand, but the status quo is questionable due to the slowdown in industrial production growth.

The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment in August fell to its lowest since Ma at 58.6 points with a consensus of 62. Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon rose to 4.9% from 4.5%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.9% from 3.4%. The decline in the index reflects households' concerns about the prospects for employment and higher prices, which limits confidence in further consumption growth.

The New York Fed Business Activity Index in August unexpectedly returned to its peak since November 2024, adding 11.9, while the forecast was for a -1 result after +5.5 in July. New orders and shipments increased, while there were signs of worsening supply conditions and employment contraction. Producer prices generally showed a moderate decline, but a significant proportion of respondents expect cost increases to accelerate over the next six months.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed doesn't have to hold the rate "forever," but it will take at least another month of analyzing inflation data to make a decision on easing monetary conditions.

- Quotes of Roblox (RBLX: -6.3%) came under pressure due to the news of a lawsuit filed by Louisiana authorities accusing them of not doing enough to protect children's online safety.

- According to Bloomberg, the Federal Trade Commission has been investigating Hims & Hers Health's (HIMS: -2.4%) business for more than a year for its difficult subscription cancelation process. While no formal charges have been filed against the company, the very fact of the investigation has put pressure on its stock.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor