Morning in New York: macro statistics in focus

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

This Thursday, January 22, trading participants will focus on the key macro release of the week - personal income and expenditures data, as well as PCE index for October-November. Freedom Broker's forecast assumes a slowdown in income growth of 0.3% mom (consensus: +0.4% mom), while spending remains steady. Mid-market expectations for PCE suggest a 0.2% m/m increase. Coincidence of actual figures with forecasted ones will provide moderate support to stock exchange quotations.

Also today will be released statistics on initial jobless claims for the week to January 17 (consensus: 215k, previous value: 198k), which will add to the investment community's perceptions of the labor market.

Before the main session opens, Procter & Gamble (PG), GE Aerospace (GE), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) will report quarterly results. Intel (INTC), Capital One Financial (COF), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Alcoa (AA) and Alaska Air (ALK) will report at the postmarket. Intel's report is important for market participants in terms of confirming the growth of AI investments with real demand and improving operating metrics. Weak signals may reinforce doubts about the sustainability of AI development, while strong guidance will support the entire semiconductor sector.

Futures on US indices show moderately positive dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as neutral with high volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6800-6950 points (from -1.1% to +1.1% to the closing level of the previous session).

- Shares of CACI International (CACI) are adding about 0.6% as its adjusted EPS and revenue rose 14.5% and 5.7% YoY to $6.81 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, for the second quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2026, although this was slightly below average expectations. The company's net income increased by about 13% YoY, with EBITDA also showing a positive trend. Contracts received totaled $1.4 bln, while the order book reached $32.8 bln. Against this backdrop, management raised its revenue and adjusted EPS guidance for FY 2026 to $9.3-9.5 bln and $28.25-28.92, respectively.

- Kinder Morgan (KMI) rose about 2.8% on the postmarket after the publication of the report for the fourth quarter, which exceeded market expectations. Earnings per share came in at $0.39 versus the consensus of $0.36, revenue reached $4.51 bln with a forecast of $4.32 bln. Since the beginning of the year, the company's securities have gained about 4%, outperforming the S&P 500.

- Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) shares fell 3.9% in the postmarket as its adjusted EPS for October-December was $0.31 with a consensus of $0.35, although revenue in line with average expectations came in at $1.9 billion. Management noted continued pressure in the trucking segment and reiterated a cautious EPS guidance in the range of $0.28-0.32 for the current quarter, emphasizing cost control and technology investments.

January 21 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended with a steady growth. S&P 500 added 1.16%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.36%, Dow Jones rose by 1.21%, Russell 2000 rose by 2%.

All sectors of the broad market closed in the plus. Energy (XLE), cyclical consumer goods (XLY) and health care (XLV) were among the leaders of growth. Non-cyclical consumer goods (XLP) and utilities (XLU) sectors showed more restrained dynamics.

The "Magnificent Seven" stocks, primarily Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA), were moving up, while Microsoft (MSFT ) was under pressure.

The market was boosted by US President Donald Trump's softer-than-expected statements on the Greenland issue. The head of the White House noted that the framework for future negotiations with NATO participation has been defined, and canceled the planned February 1 introduction of increased duties on imports to the United States of goods from a number of European countries. Also, the American leader ruled out the resolution of the situation with the use of force and called for the immediate start of negotiations. All this reduced geopolitical tension, removing the threat of retaliatory measures from Europe.

Investors paid special attention to the hearings in the U.S. Supreme Court on the case related to the U.S. administration's attempt to influence the status of Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors. A number of judges expressed skepticism about the White House's arguments and concern about the independence of the regulator. At the same time, the final decision on the case, as well as on the tariff agenda, was not made.

Pending home sales fell 9.3% m/m in December, the deepest decline since Ma 2020. Construction spending in October exceeded expectations.

The auction on placement of 20-year treasury bonds for $13 bln was held with excess demand. The yield on these treasuries was 1 bp below market expectations.

-Progress Software (PRGS: +10.8% at the close of trading on Jan. 21) beat average forecasts for fourth-quarter earnings. EPS and revenue guidance for January through March and the full fiscal year came in above consensus. Management noted that concerns around AI in the software segment appear exaggerated.

-Teledyne Technologies (TDY: +9.8%) significantly exceeded revenue and earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter. Strong results from the FLIR and Marine Instrumentation divisions offset a less robust performance from Engineered Systems. The company's own guidance for 2026 was in line with market expectations.

-Nathan's Famous (NATH: +8.7%) will be bought out by Smithfield Foods (SFD: -1.11%) before the end of the first half of the year at $102 per share in cash, which implies a premium of about 10% to the previous closing price.

-Halliburton (HAL: +4.1%) reported better than consensus revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter. Results in the Completion & Production and Drilling & Evaluation segments as well as strong free cash flow were key positive drivers.

- Investment fund Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B: -0.32%) has listed for potential sale its entire holding in Kraft Heinz (KHC: -5.7%), representing 27.5% of the latter's total shares.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor