Morning in New York: macro statistics will determine the course of trading

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

On September 16, the focus of attention of stock exchange players will be the publication of August retail sales and industrial production statistics (consensus: -0.1% m/m, July: -0.1% m/m). The overall retail sales indicator is expected to rise 0.2% m/m after 0.5% a month earlier, according to the average market guidance; the indicator excluding motor vehicle sales is expected to rise 0.4% m/m after 0.3% in July. Freedom Broker's forecast lays out a 0.2% m/m increase in retail sales, which would reflect a short-term cooling in consumer spending amid pressure on real incomes. Expect a moderate recovery in consumer activity starting in October.

Of importance to the investment community will be the decision of the US federal appeals court, which ruled that President Donald Trump cannot fire Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, until the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting on Tuesday. This guarantees Cook's participation in the rate cut vote and temporarily limits White House pressure on the regulator's independence. The court affirmed that the president's actions based on allegations of alleged improprieties in mortgage transactions violate the Constitution, making the situation surrounding the Fed a central factor in political-economic uncertainty for investors.

The U.S. Senate approved the appointment of Stephen Miran to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System by a majority vote, ensuring his participation in the FOMC meeting. The decision was made in an expedited manner and caused mixed reactions, as Miran remains the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, i.e. formally combines a political position with the function of an independent governor of the Central Bank. Democrats and a number of economists saw it as a new threat to the Fed's independence and another attempt to pressure the White House on monetary policy. Miran's vote is unlikely to be decisive in the decision to cut the rate by 25 bp, but he may be in favor of revising it by 50 bp at once, which is what President Trump wants.

No significant corporate reports are scheduled for September 16.

Futures on US indices are trading in the plus. We assess the balance of risks as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6570-6670 points (from -0.7% to +0.8% of the previous session's closing level).

-Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has approved an additional $500 million buyback program, bringing its total to $750 million. Management's goal is to activate the buyback prior to the release of its third-quarter report. The company's shares are showing positive dynamics on the premarket.

-Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is preparing to raise about 8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) through a debut bond issue on the Hong Kong exchange. This will be the issuer's first entry into the debt market since 2021. The company plans to place notes with terms of 5, 10 and 30 years with yields lower than similar securities of Alibaba and Baidu. The raised funds will be used for general corporate purposes and debt refinancing.

- The President of the United States intends to sue the New York Times (NYT) for $15 billion in a libel suit.

-Alphabet (GOOGL) has opened a new data center in the UK as part of a two-year, £5 billion investment program focused on AI solutions. This will help meet growing demand for Google's AI-enabled services, including Google Cloud, Workspace, Search and Maps. GOOGL quotes are moving upward before the start of main trading.

- OpenAI appointed Mike Liberatore, who held the same position at xAI, as CFO amid escalating conflict between CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk, who has repeatedly tried to thwart OpenAI's plans to become a for-profit organization.

September 15 trading on the U.S. stock exchanges ended in the plus. S&P 500 grew by 0.47%, NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.84%, Dow Jones added 0.11%, Russell 2000 - 0.34%. Among the "Magnificent Seven", Tesla (TSLA: +3.56%) rose strongly after Elon Musk bought 2.57 million shares and Alphabet (GOOGL: +4.3%) on the news that the Gemini app overtook ChatGPT in the number of downloads in the App Store. Broad market sectors showed mixed performance. Technology companies (XLK: +0.90%) and telecoms (XLC: +1.41%) were the leaders of growth. Consumer staples (XLP: -1.15%) and healthcare (XLV: -0.85%) were the outsiders.

FRB New York Business Activity Index (Empire State Index) for September fell from August's 11.9 points to -8.7 with a consensus of 5, going into negative territory for the first time since June. This dynamics was caused by a sharp decline in the volume of new orders and shipments. At the same time, the surveyed companies noted moderate rates of price growth and showed restraint in assessing the prospects for the coming months.

The key event of the day was the talks between the US and China in Madrid, during which the parties announced that they had reached a framework agreement on the ownership of TikTok. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will discuss the details during a phone call this Friday, September 19. The conclusion of a major trade agreement did not take place, but the meeting was an important preparatory stage before the planned talks on the margins of the APEC summit in South Korea. The dialogue took place amid heightened tensions: China claimed that Nvidia (NVDA) had violated antitrust laws and initiated an anti-dumping investigation against American analog chip manufacturers.

An additional topic for discussion among investors was Trump's statements about the possible transition of companies from publishing quarterly reports to semi-annual reports. According to the American leader, this would allow to reduce costs and focus on long-term management. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said that it is considering the issue at the president's request, but experts warn that abandoning quarterly reporting could reduce business transparency for investors and increase market volatility.

- CoreWeave (CRWV: +7.6%) shares rose after reporting a new order under the Aper-23 agreement with Nvidia (NVDA: -0.04%), which committed to buy back CoreWeave's unused data center capacity through April 2032, boosting investor confidence in the stability of the company's long-term production load.

-Oracle (ORCL: +3.4%) confirmed that the White House and Chinese representatives have reached tentative agreements on the structure of the TikTok-related deal.

-Hain Celestial Group (HAIN: -24.7%) reported last quarter earnings and revenue below expectations. The company's organic sales declined amid weak results in its snacks and ready meals segments. Management announced plans to optimize costs, improve profitability and reduce debt burden.

- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS: -2.8%) was under pressure after the head of the FDA alleged violations in its advertising, broadcast during the Super Bowl: it did not specify possible side effects. This situation increased investors' concerns about the issuer's regulatory and marketing practices.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor