Morning in New York: macro statistics will set the trading vector

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

This Tuesday, the investment community will focus on a large block of macro data for September, the publication of which was postponed due to the shutdown. Retail sales (consensus: +0.4% m/m, August: +0.6% m/m) and PPI (consensus: +0.3% m/m, August: -0.1% m/m) will be of most interest to traders. Market reaction to the releases could be mixed. Strong retail sales will confirm the resilience of consumer demand, but at the same time may be perceived as a pro-inflationary factor, weakening hopes for active Fed rate cuts. If PPI is lower than expected, it will support dovish sentiment, while a stronger than expected result will increase concerns about inflation. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November (consensus: 93.3 points, October: 94.6) will complete the picture, which will be an important indicator of sentiment on the eve of the pre-holiday selling season.

US President Donald Trump held telephone talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi. No concrete agreements were reached as a result of these dialogues. Uncertainty in the region persists, which creates risks for global supply chains. Against this background, interest in risk assets, especially in the technology sector, may be weakened.

Alibaba (BABA), Analog Devices (ADI), Nio (NIO), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) will report quarterly results before the main session opens. In the postmarket, Dell Technologies (DELL), Workday (WDAY), CleanSpark (CLSK), Zscaler (ZS), Autodesk (ADSK), HP (HPQ) and NetApp (NTAP) will report.

Futures on US indices demonstrate moderately negative dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as neutral with average volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6650-6770 points (from -0.8% to +1% of the previous session's closing level).

- Zoom Video Communications (ZM) stock is up more than 4% on the premarket, reacting to the release of its quarterly report. The company improved its full-year outlook thanks to robust demand for AI Companion and expansion of its enterprise segment. An additional positive driver was the announcement of a $1 billion increase in the buyback program.

- Shares of Keysight Technologies (KEYS) were up almost 14% before the opening of the main session. The company's quarterly revenue increased by 10% YoY to $1.42 bln, which was not a surprise for investors. However, they were encouraged by the strong outlook for the next quarter and the announcement of a $1.5 bln buyback.

- Symbotic (SYM) shares soared more than 13% before the start of the main session. Market participants ignored the net loss and focused on revenue growth to $618 mln (+9.5% YoY), which beat the consensus. The company's own guideline for the next quarter was also stronger than expected.

- A solid revenue outlook for fiscal 2026, well above average market expectations, drove Fluence Energy (FLNC) shares up more than 10% on the premarket despite weak fourth-quarter results, with 85% of the company's projected revenue driven by a record order book.

- The completion of the Marigold takeover and improved fourth-quarter revenue guidance well above consensus drove Zeta Global (ZETA) shares up more than 6% before the open of major trading.

- Sandisk securities (SNDK) are adding about 3% in the premarket, after S&P Dow Jones Indices reported the company's inclusion in the S&P 500 index, as it guarantees capital inflows from index funds.

- Semtech (SMTC) reported for the quarter at the FactSet consensus level. The pressure on its quotations was exerted by the guidance for the fourth quarter, which turned out to be noticeably lower than the average market forecasts.

- Quotes of Agilent (A) are declining on the premarket. Its quarterly earnings per share matched expectations, but revenue fell short of forecasts. Investors were also disappointed by the current quarter's guidance, which was weaker than consensus.

November 24 trading on American stock exchanges ended in a steady plus. S&P 500 added 1.55%, Nasdaq 100 soared by 2.62%, Dow Jones rose by 0.44%, and Russell 2000 rose by 1.89%. As was the case the day before, the positive momentum was fueled by renewed interest in "growth" stocks after last week's technical correction. The "Magnificent Seven" companies demonstrated outperformance supported by Alphabet (GOOGL: +6.31%) and Tesla (TSLA: +6.82%). Against this backdrop, the technology sector (XLK: +2.38%) emerged as the broad market growth leader. The outsiders were suppliers of consumer staples (XLP: -1.16%).

The main support for the buyers was provided by growing expectations of the Fed's imminent easing of monetary policy. Member of the Board of Governors Christopher Waller again advocated for a rate cut in December. Head of FRB San Francisco Mary Daly also considers this step appropriate, arguing that the risks of a sudden deterioration in the labor market are higher than the threat of accelerating inflation. Against the background of "dovish" signals of the regulator's management, the assessment of the probability of a rate cut in December, according to FedWatch Tool, exceeded 80%.

The activity of the "bulls" was not hindered by weak macro statistics. The index of business activity from FRB Dallas in the manufacturing sector in November fell to -10.4 points, being much worse than forecasts. Under current conditions, the market continues to interpret such deviations from consensus as an additional argument in favor of lowering rates. The optimistic mood was supported by the news about the plans of the US and Chinese leaders to meet in Beijing in April, which reduces geopolitical tensions.

- Alphabet 's (GOOGL: +6.3%) Gemini 3.0 AI model, according to media reports, has outperformed competitors in industry tests, boosting investor confidence in the company's technological leadership. Broadcom (AVGO: +11.1%), a key partner in developing specialized TPU chips for Google's AI model, looks to be one of the beneficiaries against this backdrop.

- The news of withdrawal from merger talks with Performance Food Group (PFGC: -2.3%) supported US Foods (USFD: +7.8%) along with the confirmation of earlier forecasts and the announcement of a $1 billion increase in the buyback program.

- Alibaba (BABA: +5.1%) rose on news of the successful relaunch of its Qwen AI app. The company reported that it has already been downloaded more than 10 million times in the week after the update, indicating high user interest.

- Centene (CNC: +4.6%) quotes rose on reports that the White House is preparing a proposal to extend Obamacare (ACA) subsidies for two years.

- Novo Nordisk (NVO: -5.6%) shares were under pressure due to the reported failure of clinical trial results for the oral version of Ozempic. It failed to demonstrate efficacy in slowing the progression of Alzheimer's disease, which led to the discontinuation of further studies in this area.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor