Morning in New York: macro statistics will set the trading vector

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The upcoming trading day will be full of important macro data publications. Against this background, a temporary increase in volatility is likely. The release of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December (consensus: 91 points, November: 88.7) promises to be the most informative. The most significant component of this indicator will be the labor market differential (the difference between the shares of respondents who believe it is easy to find a new job and those for whom it is difficult). The growth of the indicator from November 9.7 points to 11 points will be perceived by the investment community as a confirmation of stabilization of the situation in the labor market.

The preliminary estimate of GDP dynamics for the third quarter (consensus: +3.3% y/y, Q2: +3.8%), delayed due to the shutdown, will also be released. Due to the delayed publication, the value of this report for reassessing Fed rate expectations is reduced. The growth of the basic indicator of the economy in the range of 2.6-3.8% will cause a neutral reaction of stock exchange players.

In addition, the statistics on durable goods orders for October (consensus: -1.5% mom, September: +0.5% mom) and industrial production for November (consensus: +0.1%, the same as a month earlier) will see the light of day. These data are of interest to refine estimates of economic growth in the current quarter, but in our view, they will not have a significant impact on underlying expectations.

The situation around Venezuela continues to escalate, remaining a key factor for the dynamics of the energy sector. The head of the White House on the eve confirmed that the U.S. will not only detain, but also seize oil and tankers violating the sanctions regime. These statements, as well as threats to expand operations onshore, increase the risks of further reduction of hydrocarbon supplies from Venezuela, which can provide additional support to its prices.

Futures on US indices demonstrate about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming trades as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6840-6920 points (from -0.6% to +0.6% to the closing level of the previous session).

- ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) has confirmed receiving several all-cash buyout offers from strategic investors, causing its pre-market quote to add more than 7%.

- Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares reacted before the opening of the main session with gains of over 7% on news of regulatory approval in the US FDA for an oral version of its GLP-1 drug for the treatment of obesity.

-RTX (RTX) announced the receipt of new defense contracts, which has increased interest in its stock.

- Huntington Ingalls (HII) securities are up nearly 5% after President Donald Trump announced plans to build a new class of warships.

- Shares of Parsons (PSN) are adding about 5% in the premarket on news of its participation in the Agency's up to $151 billion missile defense contract.

- Stratus Properties (STRS) is under investor focus after announcing plans to review its business strategy, including a possible sale of the business.

Trading on December 22 on American stock exchanges, as well as two days earlier, ended in the green sector. S&P 500 added 0.64%, Nasdaq 100 grew by 0.46%, Dow Jones rose by 0.47%, Russell 2000 - by 1.16%.

Most of the "Magnificent Seven" companies, led by Tesla (TSLA: +1.56%) and Nvidia (NVDA: +1.49%), were trading in positive territory. The financial industry (XLF: +0.88%) emerged as the growth leader due to increased risk appetite, while the defensive consumer staples sector (XLP: -1.14%) was the outsider.

The persistence of last week's optimistic sentiment (primarily regarding the prospects of the AI segment) launched a broad rally. Investors reacted positively to the news about Nvidia's plans to start selling H200 chips in China from February, as well as to OpenAI's announcement about increasing profitability of its paid products. An additional growth driver was the activation in the field of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). In particular, it became known that Oracle (ORCL) top executive Larry Ellison will personally support Paramount Skydance 's (PSKY: +4.29%) bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD: +3.53%) by providing a $40.4 billion guarantee.

Comments from Fed officials again signaled continued disagreement over the future course of monetary policy.

- Cintas (CTAS: +2.4%) made a new takeover offer to UniFirst (UNF: +16.2%) at $275 per share, a 62% premium to the Dec. 19 closing price.

- Rocket Lab (RKLB: +10%) has awarded an $816 million contract to the U.S. Space Force (USSF) to build a missile defense satellite system.

- Shares of Stanley Black & Decker (SWK: +3.4%) were supported by the announcement of the sale of its aerospace business Howmet Aerospace for $1.8 billion in cash. The selling company plans to use the proceeds to reduce debt.

- Alphabet (GOOGL: +0.9%) acquires clean energy developer Intersect Power, a growth driver for the entire solar generation sector, including First Solar (FSLR: +6.6%).

- The U.S. Department of the Interior has ordered the suspension of five Dominion Energy (D: -3.7%) offshore wind energy projects, citing national security concerns.

- Coty (COTY: -3.7%) announced the departure of its CEO and executive chairman from their positions.

- Instacart (CART: -2%) has dropped its use of Eversight's AI technology for pricing tests amid an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor