Morning in New York: market waiting for Paeull's speech

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Investors remain calm thanks to a successful reporting season and, in particular, strong results from banks. Given the impressive growth of the stock market (S&P 500 has added 22% over the last three months) and the aggressive rhetoric of the Trump administration towards foreign trade partners, investors should be prepared for increased volatility before August 1, when the previously announced import duties are to come into effect;

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on the Fed to reconsider its headquarters renovation plan, as well as to change its approach to non-economic activities, pointing to the monetary authority's "serious departure from its core mission." Thus, the White House continues to intensify criticism of the Fed. On July 22, its chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a banking conference on regulatory issues. Investors are waiting for new signals from the speaker regarding the further course of monetary policy;

The FRB Philadelphia and FRB Richmond will present data from regional business activity indices based on monthly surveys of business people about key aspects of their operations. These statistics will clarify the impact of import tariffs on producers and on inflation;

Before the main session opens, Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), RTX Corp (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and General Motors (GM) will report quarterly results. At the postmarket, Texas Instruments (TXN), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One Financial (COF), Enphase (ENPH) and SAP (SAP) will present financial results. 

Futures on US stock indices are trading sideways. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with an average level of volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 movements in the range of 6270-6340 points (from -0.6% to +0.5% to the closing level of the previous session);

- Shares of NXP (NXPI) fell 5% after the company released its current-quarter outlook, which, while in line with consensus, disappointed the market with weaker-than-expected guidance amid unfavorable conditions in the automotive segment and a chip surplus. 

- Steel Dynamics (STLD) revenues and earnings for the last reported quarter fell short of forecasts due to uncertainty over trade policy and excess inventory, causing the company's shares to fall more than 3% despite improving margins and management's confidence in long-term growth. 

- W.R. Berkley (WRB) reported April-June EPS of $1.05 and insurance premiums at a record $3.98 billion. However, its quotes fell 1.4% on concerns about increased competition in the real estate market and worsening gaidens. 

- Shares of Simmons First National (SFNC) fell 5.4% after announcing a public offering of Class A shares without specifying the size or purpose of the fundraising. 

- The papers of online real estate transaction platform Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)have surged 43% the day before (up as much as 100% at the peak) on sales of 1.9 billion units (about 10% of total volume on U.S. exchanges). The stock, which recently traded below $1, has jumped 502% since the beginning of July, reminiscent of GameStop's history of "meme" securities in 2021. At today's premarket, OPEN quotes are adding another 10%. 

Trades on July 21 on American stock exchanges ended mixed. S&P 500 added 0.14%, Nasdaq 100 grew by 0.5%, Dow Jones fell by an insignificant 0.04%, and Russell 2000 corrected by 0.4%. The Magnificent Seven stocks showed mixed performance. Better than the others looked Alphabet (GOOGL), whose quotes rose by 2.7%. In the leaders of growth due to strong reporting Verizon (VZ) was the telecommunications sector (XLC: +1.34%). The energy sector (XLE: -1.04%) was the outsider;

The U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index declined 0.3% in June, indicating a likely slowdown in the economy in the second half of the year under the impact of import tariffs imposed by the White House. 

Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that the introduction of increased import duties from August 1 will increase pressure on US trading partners to conclude agreements with them that are favorable for the American side. According to the minister, the priority is the quality of these agreements, not the timing of their signing.  

The expected volatility curve for options confirms that traders are forecasting sharp market moves in early August. 

- Verizon (VZ: +4%) reported second-quarter earnings of $5 billion. The telecom operator's revenue exceeded expectations thanks to the expansion of 5G networks and growth in average revenue per user (ARPU), allowing management to raise its full-year earnings guidance. 

- Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT: +3.1%) has accumulated $2 billion worth of bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related securities as part of its strategy to expand its digital asset initiatives. 

- Shares of Bruker (BRKR: -12.1%) fell after releasing preliminary quarterly results, recording stagnant revenue and lower adjusted earnings amid weak demand in the academic sector and a downturn in the U.S. biopharma market. 

- Shares of Avantor (AVTR: -7.2%) came under pressure following the news that Emmanuelle Linier will take over as its CEO effective August 18.  

- Amazon.com (AMZN: +1.4%) raises prices on everyday essentials, while Walmart (WMT: +0.6%) lowers them. The online retailer is likely relying on robust demand and testing the limits of price elasticity, while the largest offline chain is stepping up promotional activity in an effort to maintain market share amid consumption pressures. 

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor