Morning in New York: markets watch US-China talks in Madrid

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The focus of attention for the September 15 session remains on the US-China talks that started on Sunday in Madrid. The first meeting was held without significant breakthroughs, but the parties agreed to continue the dialog on Monday morning. Topics discussed included import tariffs, export restrictions, and the fate of TikTok. The deadline for the sale of the video hosting company's U.S. assets expires on September 17, and the base case scenario assumes another extension of the deadline. The main result of the current dialog remains the preparation of talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing. The meeting between the two leaders, however, may be canceled due to existing disagreements. In addition, ahead of the talks in Madrid, Beijing launched an anti-dumping investigation against American chips.

For investors, the risks are related not so much to the specific results of the negotiations, but rather to the possible escalation of trade disagreements. The White House has already called on the G7 countries to impose duties against China and India for purchases of Russian oil, and any increased pressure in this direction is capable of causing fluctuations in commodity and currency markets. At the same time, the extension of the time-out on the deal with TikTok and the preservation of the trade truce may be perceived by stock exchange players as a signal of stabilization, albeit temporary.

On the macroeconomic calendar, the key release will be the publication of the September FRB New York Business Activity Index. The consensus assumes a decline in the index from August 11.9 points to 4. The coincidence of the actual indicator with the forecasted one will signal the weakening of manufacturing activity in the region. This result may strengthen the arguments in favor of easing the Fed's policy and support expectations of rate cuts in the coming months.

No significant corporate reports are scheduled for Monday, September 15.

Futures on US indices show about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6550-6620 points (from -0.5% to +0.5% to the previous session's closing level).

-Tesla (TSLA) intends to increase output at the plant in Germany due to increased sales and favorable signals from export markets. Quotes of the car concern reacted positively to the news before the start of the main session.

- At the meeting with shareholders, BHP (BHP) management emphasized the potential for growth of copper production in Argentina and the U.S., but refrained from discussing possible activity in the M&A market. In addition, it became known that the Jansen project in Canada is facing rising costs and delays. On the premarket, the company's shares show moderate movement.

- UnitedHealth (UNH) has intensified interaction with the state, its representatives are making attempts to organize a meeting with Trump and other senior officials to discuss the situation around the Medicare Advantage investigations. Before the opening of the main trades the securities of the issuer demonstrate restrained dynamics.

- Rheinmetall AG (RHM.EU) expects to finalize the acquisition of Luerssen Group Naval Vessels Luerssen's military unit to enter the naval shipbuilding segment and strengthen its position in Europe, following regulatory approval.

- UBS(UBS) is considering moving its headquarters to theU.S. or merging with a U.S. bank amid Swiss government plans to tighten capital requirements following its takeover of Credit Suisse.

-B. Riley Financial (RILY) stated that the audit report would identify weaknesses in its control systems, including the valuation of investments.

Trading on September 13 on the U.S. stock exchanges ended multidirectionally. S&P 500 lost an insignificant 0.05%, Nasdaq 100 added 0.42%, Dow Jones fell by 0.59%, Russell 2000 fell by 1.01%. Most of the sectors included in the broad market index were under pressure, but support was provided by the securities of technology giants, in particular Tesla (TSLA: +7.36%), whose shares soared after the announcement of the authorization to test robot cabs, breaking upward resistance in the area of $365-370. Among the "Magnificent Seven" only Amazon (AMZN: -0.78%) ended the day in the negative. Telecoms (XLC: +0.83%) were the top gainers, while the healthcare sector (XLV: -1.15%) looked weaker than the market.

Preliminary data of the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan for September recorded a decline in the index from August 58.2 points to 55.4, while the consensus suggested a rise to 59.3. The index of current conditions fell to 61.2, the expectations index fell to 51.8. Sentiment among low- and middle-income households deteriorated especially markedly. Inflation expectations for the year ahead remained at 4.8%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.9% from 3.5% in August, reflecting continued concerns about import duties, labor market conditions, and business conditions.

- Arista Networks (ANET: -8.9%) shares are down sharply after an investor day where management provided fiscal 2026 revenue guidance slightly below expectations and a weaker-than-market-expected margin guide.

- The growth of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD: +16.9%) continued thanks to expectations of an offer from Paramount Skydance (PSKY: +7.62%), which, according to media reports, may be made next week.

- Under pressure due to reports of the Trump administration's intention to link several pediatric deaths to the COVID-19 vaccination were Moderna (MRNA: -7.4%), Pfizer (PFE: -4%), BioNTech (BNTX: -7.3%) and Novavax (NVAX: -3.6%).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor