Morning in New York: optimists back in the majority

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

U.S. authorities and leading semiconductor manufacturers Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) have agreed to transfer 15% of proceeds from sales of advanced AI chips, including the NVIDIA H20 and AMD MI308, to the federal budget. This was one of the conditions for the corporations to be granted export licenses, which were suspended in the spring and resumed in July as part of negotiations with Beijing over rare-earth metal shipments. The Trump administration's decision has sparked controversy. Its critics point to the contradiction between the declared risks to national security and the actual authorization of sales in exchange for fiscal revenues. News on this topic has the potential to determine the movements of semiconductor stocks in the upcoming trading.

The rhetoric of Fed representatives continues to soften amid new signs of labor market cooling. Given this factor, Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, expressed confidence in the need for three rate cuts this year. In her opinion, tariffs on imports will not create sustainable inflationary pressure and inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. The market estimates the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in September at more than 90%. Corresponding expectations may support demand for risk assets, especially if inflation statistics confirms the slowdown trend. There are no significant releases in today's macroeconomic calendar.

The August 15 meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska could be a key element in shaping a new balance of power in Europe. European leaders expressed support for Kiev, which is strongly opposed to territorial concessions to Moscow, and called on the U.S. president to increase sanctions pressure to force the Kremlin to negotiate on terms acceptable to Ukraine. However, the very fact of bilateral talks with the head of the Russian Federation increases the risks for the Ukrainian side. For market participants, the upcoming summit will be a test of the US and Russia's readiness for de-escalation. Any signals of softening rhetoric may reduce demand for protective assets and support interest in risky assets. If the sides take irreconcilable positions, geopolitical tensions will escalate again, which will increase volatility in commodity prices.

Barrick Mining Corporation (B), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Legend Biotech (LEGN), Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) and AAON (AAON) will report quarterly results before the open. After the close of the main session, Oklo (OKLO), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Plug Power (PLUG) and Celanese (CE) will release their financial results.

Futures on American indices show about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with an average level of volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 movements in the range of 6350-6430 points (from -0.6% to +0.6% to the closing level of the previous session).

- Intel (INTC) CEO Lip-Bu Tan will meet with Donald Trump to discuss terms of further cooperation. The head of the corporation aims to prove his readiness to work for the national security of the United States after the president called for his resignation due to ties with China.

- SoftBank has selected Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Mizuho and Morgan Stanley (MS) as the organizers of the IPO of its Japanese payment app PayPay in the US. The over $2 billion offering is scheduled for the fourth quarter.

- CATL suspended production at its 46,000-ton-per-year lithium mine in Yichun as its license expired on Aug. 9, causing lithium futures and lithium stocks to rise more than 10 percent.

- Engine Capital has acquired about 3% of Avantor (AVTR) and intends to seek a sale of the company or other strategic changes. The investor estimates the potential deal at $17-19 per share with the current capitalization of $7.84 bln and AVTR's quotations falling by more than 45% since the beginning of the year.

- According to Bloomberg, the launch of GPT-5 has been called "disappointing", with concerns about the AI giving out false information and having trouble answering simple questions. The company's CEO promises rapid improvements.

August 8 trading on American stock exchanges ended in the plus. S&P 500 added 0.78%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.95%, having updated the historical maximum. The Dow Jones gained 0.47% and the Russell 2000 gained 0.17%. The week was successful for the "bulls": the broad market index rose by 2%, and the benchmark of the high-tech sector - by almost 4%. Apple and the high-tech industry as a whole were the biggest contributors to this performance. Nine of the 11 sectors included in the S&P 500 last Friday closed in the plus. Technology companies were the leaders (XLK: +1%), while the real estate industry was the outsider (XLRE: -0.82%).

The US President plans to nominate his economic advisor Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors to replace Adrianna Kugler, who resigned. The candidate favors an early transition to easing monetary conditions and does not consider critical the impact of import duties on inflation, which coincides with the position of his potential colleagues Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Confirmation of the nominee could be delayed until the fall. Trump has said Miran will not be reappointed in January, leaving the question of the Fed's long-term composition open.

- Doximity (DOCS: +13.7%) reported revenue and earnings above forecasts for the quarter, helped by the success of new products. Haydens for the current reporting period was stronger than average market expectations, and the annual guidance was improved. Analysts see the development of Scribe and Pathway AI solutions as a positive.

- Gilead Sciences' (GILD: +8.3%) revenues and earnings for the reporting quarter were above average forecasts, allowing the company to improve its full-year guidance. The stability of the HIV drug portfolio, strong sales of the anticancer drug Trodelvy and expectations of the launch of an HIV vaccine were the key drivers of the growth.

- The White House is planning an offering of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to raise about $30 billion.

- GoDaddy (GDDY: -11.3%) recorded earnings and free cash flow above average expectations on underperforming revenue. Management improved its sales guidance for the year, but bookings growth in the A&C portfolio slowed amid a difficult comparison base.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor