Morning in New York: Powell's rhetoric will set the vector for the trades

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The focus of attention during the upcoming session will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. After mixed signals from the September meeting ("dovish" forecast on rates and restrained tone of the press conference), investors will be looking for hints on the future course of monetary policy. At the same time, the emergence of fundamentally new theses is not expected, and the basic mood of the Fed Chairman is likely to remain cautiously balanced.

In the macrostatistics calendar, the main interest is in the preliminary business activity index (PMI) data from S&P Global for September. Freedom Broker's benchmark assumes a decline in the manufacturing PMI from August's 53 points to 52.5, while the service PMI rose from 54.5 points to 55, which will be a sign that demand in the largest segment of the U.S. economy is picking up.

US Ambassador to China David Perdue said that a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which the White House had previously said would likely take place next year rather than this fall. He said the leaders' relations are at a "very good and encouraging level," but sensitive issues remain, including trade imbalances and ownership of TikTok. Perdue said high-level contacts continue and the two sides are eager to dialog, but key agreements can only be reached in the longer term.

AutoZone (AZO) will report quarterly results before the open of trading this Tuesday. Micron (MU) will report after the end of the main session.

Futures on US indices are trading sideways. We assess the balance of risks as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on the S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6650-6750 points (from -0.7% to +0.8% of the previous session's closing level)

-Celltrion (KS:068270) said it has purchased a biologics manufacturing plant in the U.S. from Eli Lilly (LLY) for approximately $330 million. The deal is aimed at expanding the South Korean company's presence in the U.S. market and reducing its vulnerability to tariff risks.

- Shares of Firefly Aerospace (FLY) reacted negatively to the release of its quarterly report, which showed a loss per share of $5.78 on revenue of $15.5 million. Both results were significantly worse than analysts' expectations. At the same time, the company's order book increased to about $1.3 bln thanks to new NASA contracts and investment by Northrop Grumman.

- Quotes of ACM Research (ACMR) climbed in extended trading after announcing its inclusion in the S&P SmallCap 600 Index effective September 26. The company will replace WK Kellogg (KLG), which is awaiting the completion of its deal with Ferrero Group.

- Boeing's (BA) securities reacted with growth to the news of Uzbekistan Airways' plans to buy more than 20 787 Dreamliner aircraft worth over $8 billion, including an initial contract for 14 planes with an option to expand by eight more. At the same time, according to the American ambassador, the US and China are in the final stages of negotiations on the large order, and the contract could be finalized in the coming weeks.

Trading on September 22 on American stock exchanges ended in the plus. S&P 500 rose by 0.44%, Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.55%, Dow Jones added 0.14%, and Russell 2000 - 0.59%. At the same time, nine out of 11 sectors of the broad market showed negative dynamics. High-tech companies (XLK: +1.34%) and utility providers (XLU: +0.29%) were the growth leaders. The outsiders were FMCG (XLP: -1.79%) and energy (XLE: -0.96%).

Apple (AAPL: +4.31%) and Nvidia (NVDA: +3.93%) stood out in the "Magnificent Seven", the driver of the latter's stock price growth was the news of plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as part of a new strategic partnership for data center development.

The market was supported by increased M&A activity and continued optimism around artificial intelligence investments, as well as expected continued Fed policy easing, resilience in consumer spending, and the rally beyond the technology sector.

Stephen Miran, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, said that the regulator's rates should be about 2 p.p. above the current level, taking a more dovish stance than most of his colleagues. In turn, such representatives of the Fed's leadership as Rafael Bostic, Alberto Musalem, Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin expressed concerns about inflation risks limiting the potential for further easing of monetary conditions. Despite visible disagreements among Fed members, markets are still plotting two rate cuts before the end of the year.

- Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS: +45.5%) announced a merger with Compass (COMP: -15.74%) in an all-stock deal valued at $10 billion. Anywhere shareholders will receive 1.436 shares of Compass stock for each of their shares. Compass shareholders will receive 78% of the combined company. The deal is scheduled to close in the second half of 2026.

- Premier (PINC: +9.7%) quotes rose on news of an acquisition by private equity firm Patient Square Capital in a $2.6 billion deal expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.

-Nvidia (NVDA: +3.9%) intends to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as part of a new strategic partnership to develop data centers. The implementation of this strategy will strengthen Nvidia's leadership in AI infrastructure, providing a strong positive driver for the issuer's quotations.

- Kenvue (KVUE, -7.5%) shares fell after the Washington Post reported the White House plans to initiate an investigation to determine if there is a link between taking the drug Tylenol (paracetamol) during pregnancy and the risk of autism in children.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor