Morning in New York: reports and macro data will guide trading

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The trade negotiations between the US and China, which started the day before in Stockholm, remain in the center of attention of the investment community. Most likely, the discussion of the parameters of mutual trade between the delegations headed by the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Chairman of the State Council of the People's Republic of China He Lifeng will result in the extension of the current tariff conditions for 90 days. However, the two sides will need more time to agree on mutually acceptable terms than Washington's dialog with other nations in the region. According to CNBC, the current phase of talks could end on July 30. China's control over the global market for rare earth metals and magnets - key components for the production of military equipment and other industrial products - remains a powerful leverage for Beijing.

The market is also waiting for the conclusion of trade agreements between the USA and South Korea, Taiwan and India. Updates on the terms of deals with Mexico and Canada are possible.

The coming week is full of releases of important macroeconomic data and corporate reports. This Tuesday will see the release of the JOLTS job openings statistics for July (consensus: 7550k, June: 7769k). The July consumer confidence index from the Conference Board will be released (consensus: 96 points, June: 93 points).

The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve starts today. Average market expectations suggest that the key rate will remain in the range of 4.25-4.5%.

Boeing (BA), P&G (PG), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Spotify Tech (SPOT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), UnitedHealth (UNH) will publish quarterly reports before the opening of the main session. Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), and Booking (BKNG) will report financial results at the postmarket.

Futures on the U.S. stock indices are trading in the plus. Nvidia shares (NVDA), which added more than 1% on the background of media reports about ordering 300 thousand H20 chips from TSMC (TSM) due to strong demand in China, make a big contribution to the dynamics. We assess the balance of risks as positive with an average level of volatility. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6350-6450 points (from -0.6% to +1% to the closing level of the previous session).

 - The Waymo division of Alphabet Corporation (GOOGL) plans to expand the robotaxi service's geographic footprint in 2026, launching in Dallas, Miami, and Washington, D.C..

- Nucor (NUE) reported an increase in earnings per share from $0.77 in the first quarter to $2.6 in the second quarter. Management notes price increases, stable supply volumes and nearing completion of a number of strategic projects.

- Welltower (WELL) reported strong results, with earnings in line with average expectations and revenue beating them thanks to revenue growth from its nursing home segment. The company raised its full-year guidance for FFO and net income, and announced a 10.4% quarterly dividend increase.

- Waste Management (WM) reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.92 per share for the quarter on revenue growth of 19% to $6.43 billion. The growth was driven by higher prime rates and solid results from its core business.

- Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) has received FDA approval to resume shipments of its ELEVIDYS gene therapy for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy in outpatients. The company's stock is near a 52-week low, having lost more than 90% since the beginning of the year.

- Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) shares are rising in the premarket after the release of its second quarter quarterly report.  Results beat consensus. Steady demand, which helped offset the impact of temporary U.S. export restrictions on China, allowed management to improve the company's full-year guidance.

Trades on July 28 on American stock exchanges ended mixed. The S&P 500 added 0.14%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.38%, the Dow Jones fell 0.44%, and the Russell 2000 corrected 0.19%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP ETF) was down 0.59%. The "Magnificent Seven" stocks also moved unevenly. Tesla (TSLA: +3%) looked better than the rest: it continued its rebound after the collapse caused by the quarterly report. Energy (XLE: +1.14%) and high-tech companies (XLK: +0.8%) were the top gainers. The real estate industry (XLRE: -1.73%) was the outsider.

The market generally reacted positively to the agreement on mutual trade between the US and the EU, which includes a reduction in import duties on goods from the EU to 15%. This allows us to expect de-escalation of foreign trade tensions between the key partners.

The Ministry of Finance placed two-year treasury bonds worth $69 bln. Their yield was 0.5 bps lower than expected. At the same time, the yield on five-year treasury bonds, placed in the amount of $70 bln, was 0.8 b.p. higher than expected.

The general index of business activity of FRB Dallas for July increased to 0.9 points compared to -12.7 in June. This is the first time since January that the index has been in the plus side.

- Cheniere Energy (LNG: +1.4%) shares reacted positively to the EU s willingness to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the US.

- Quotes of Revvity (RVTY: -8.3%) fell after lowering the annual profit forecast, despite strong results for the second quarter. Pressure on the quotations was exerted by a drop in revenue from diagnostics in China, a decline in margins and possible additional costs due to the increase in import tariffs.

- Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP: -1.7%) reported second-quarter earnings and revenues below estimates due to lower coal prices. Despite an increase in production volumes, the results were pressured by difficult operating conditions at Tunnel Ridge mine.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor