Morning in New York: trading will be on hold

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

Investors are avoiding opening large positions ahead of the publication of a block of important macro statistics. This Thursday will see the release of preliminary data on durable goods orders for August (consensus: -0.3% m/m, July: -2.8% m/m). A moderate decline after a pronounced contraction a month earlier may indicate stabilization in the manufacturing sector.

Freedom Broker's forecast for the number of applications for unemployment benefits suggests stabilization at 234 thousand after 231 thousand a week earlier. This figure, combined with a strong report on new home sales released the previous day, will be another confirmation of the stability of the U.S. economy. Another notable release will be the secondary home sales statistics for August (consensus: -1.4% m/m, July: 2% m/m).

Despite the significance, macro statistics may be overshadowed by heightened risks of a U.S. government shutdown. The White House has already instructed federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs rather than just temporary furloughs, raising the stakes in the standoff over the budget. This political risk, combined with the impending expiration of quarterly options and the anticipation of the release of PCE index data on Friday, is motivating investors to be as cautious as possible.

Before the main session opens, Jabil (JBL) and CarMax (KMX) will report quarterly results. Costco (COST) will report at the post-market.

Futures on US indices show about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks as neutral with moderate volatility. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6600-6670 points (from -0.6% to +0.5% to the previous session's closing level).

- Jane Street disclosed its 5.9% ownership of Opendoor Technologies (OPEN). This caused the latter's shares to rise by about 10% on the premarket.

- Seastar Medical Holding (ICU) shares collapsed by about 48%. The sell-off followed a recommendation by the independent data monitoring committee (DSMB) to expand patient enrollment in the clinical trial, which was perceived by the market as a signal that the initial results were not convincing enough.

- Stitch Fix (SFIX) is down about 6%, although its fourth-quarter results beat analysts' expectations. The company reported revenue of $311.2 million (+4.4% YoY) with a loss per share of $0.07 (consensus: $0.1). Investors were concerned about the continued decline in the active customer base, which amounted to 7.9% in the reporting period.

- KB Home (KBH) shares were down about 0.2% after the close of the main session amid the release of a quarterly report that showed the construction company's revenue and EPS were $1.62 billion and $1.61, with average forecasts of $1.59 billion and $1.5, respectively

Trading on September 24 on the U.S. stock exchanges, as well as the day before, ended on the negative territory. The S&P 500 fell 0.28%, the Nasdaq 100 corrected 0.31%, the Dow Jones lost 0.37%, the Russell 2000 fell 0.92%. Most of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks went negative, although Tesla (TSLA) posted a notable gain amid rising expectations for vehicle deliveries ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit. The energy sector (XLE: +1.30%) led the gains. Materials producers (XLB: -1.22%) were the outsiders.

The main macroeconomic event of the day was the publication of unexpectedly strong housing market data. Sales of new homes in August increased by 20.5% m/m and 15.4% y/y, reaching the maximum since January 2022, while it was predicted only a slowdown in the decline from 0.6% in July to 0.3%. The effect of the surprise is reinforced by the fact that this report is based on data obtained before the reduction of mortgage rates, and the average price of a sold house for the period even increased by 1.9% y/y to $413.5 thousand. It is assumed that the main reason for the surge in activity was discounts and special offers from developers, which were able to offset the impact of expensive lending. Nevertheless, monthly data on new home sales are very volatile. It will be possible to judge whether the trend is changing or remaining the same only after the revised estimate for August and the data for September are released. At the same time, the statistics shows the stability of the residential real estate sector and may become an additional argument for the hawks in the Fed that the economy is not experiencing significant pressure from the current level of rates.

- Alibaba (BABA: +8.2%) announced a plan to increase its investment in AI to $53 billion over the next three years and unveiled its new Qwen3-Max language model.

- According to Bloomberg, Intel (INTC: +6.4%) is in talks to raise investment from Apple to accelerate its business recovery.

- Quotes of uniQure NV (QURE: +247.7%) soared due to the publication of strong results of the trial of the drug AMT-130 for the treatment of Huntington's disease. The trial showed a 75% slowdown in the progression of the disease, compared to the expected 50%.

- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX: -17%) lowered its copper and gold sales forecast by 4% and 6%, respectively, from its July guidance.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor