Morning in New York: US-China talks on duties and metals take center stage

Daily review and forecast of events on the US stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The main event for the investment community on June 9 will be the talks in London between the U.S. and China on mutual trade, centered on the topic of export control, which overshadowed the tariff agenda. The U.S. side intends to seek an acceleration of rare earth metals shipments, as confirmed by Kevin Hassett, head of the U.S. National Economic Council. Beijing will demand the removal of restrictions on the supply of aircraft engines and technologies to the country.

US President Donald Trump, for his part, claims an «advanced stage» of dialog and a «very good» conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as well as mutual understanding on the supply of rare earth metals. At the same time, according to some reports, Trump may again raise import duties on goods from China in the absence of the expected results of the dialog.

Bloomberg sources inform about positive developments in the negotiations between the US and India. The U.S. delegation extended its stay in the country. The head of the Japanese delegation, Akazawa Resei, noted some progress in the fifth round of dialog, which ended late last week, while disagreements remain.

In the macroeconomic calendar of this Monday, the publication of data on wholesale inventories in trade for April deserves attention, but it will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of stock markets.

We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as neutral with increased volatility amid trade negotiations between the US and China. We forecast the S&P 500 to move in the range of 5920-6100 points (from -1.3% to +1.5% relative to the closing level of the previous session).

- According to Bloomberg, Meta Platforms (META) is in talks to invest more than $10 billion in AI startup Scale AI. It could be one of the largest private deals in history.

- The chief financial officer of Walmart (WMT) said that with continued pressure on consumer budgets, shopping habits have not changed significantly.

- Rio Tinto (RIO) is seeking several billion dollars in government subsidies for its Tomago aluminum smelter in Australia because of rising electricity prices. The plant consumes about 12% of all electricity in New South Wales, producing up to 590,000 tons of aluminum a year.

- Following Hackread reports about the leak of data from 88 million AT&T (T) customers, the telecom's management said it is investigating the illegal sale of that information.

- EchoStar (SATS) is considering filing for bankruptcy to protect its wireless spectrum frequencies from possible revocation by federal regulators, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Trading on June 6 on U.S. stock exchanges finished in steady plus. The S&P 500 climbed 1.03%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.99%, the Dow Jones added 1.05%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.66%. The broad market index is more than 20% off its April 8 low and is less than 2.5% away from its February peak. All sectors of the benchmark ended Friday's session in the green zone. Energy (XLE) and telecom (XLC) were the leaders of growth. Less pronounced positive dynamics was demonstrated by producers of raw materials (XLB).

Yields on treasuries rose by 11-13 bp, while those on ten-year notes again approached the 4.5% mark. Gold fell in price by 0.8%. WTI oil rose in price by 1.9%.

In the center of attention of market participants was the report of the Ministry of Labor for May. The number of new jobs outside of agriculture amounted to 139 thousand with a consensus of 130 thousand. At the same time, the cumulative data for March and April were revised downward by 95 thousand, which somewhat offset the positive effect of the May statistics. Unemployment remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, in line with forecasts. The decline in household employment was offset by an overall decline in the labor force. Overall, the report confirmed the trend of the labor market gradually cooling while remaining resilient. This encourages the Fed to keep the rate at current levels in the near term and to assess the impact of measures already taken. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% mom (consensus: +0.3%). Employment growth continues to be most pronounced in the health care and leisure sectors. At the same time, the number of employees in the structures of the federal government has decreased by 59 thousand since January.

Fed Deputy Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, in her first comments after being confirmed in this position, announced plans for a major overhaul of banking regulation. Also discussed are ways to resolve the conflict between Donald Trump and Ilon Musk, which affected stock markets, although the White House denied rumors of a planned conversation between the two.

The corporate reporting season is coming to an end. On the whole, its results turned out to be strong. About 78% of companies in the S&P 500 index exceeded analysts' forecasts (by 8.3% on average). Although many guidances for the next quarters have been revised downward, the year-end earnings growth of about 9% is expected.

- Shares of Samsara (IOT: -4.55%) fell despite strong financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, recording a rise in annualized recurring revenue (ARR), record gross margins and an increase in the number of large customers. Investors reacted negatively to lengthening sales cycles amid macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff barriers, as well as slowing deal volume growth in April (NNARR).

- Shares of DocuSign (DOCU: -18.97%) collapsed after the company revised its full-year billing outlook despite solid first-quarter financial results. Investors were disappointed that billing (a key leading indicator of earnings) came in below market expectations and the company's own guidance.

- The securities of Mosaic (MOS: -4.4%) reacted negatively to the lowering of the guideline for phosphate sales for the current quarter and the full year 2025, despite an increase in the price target, as it raised investors' concerns about the decline in revenue from sales of this product.  

- ServiceTitan (TTAN: -6.94%) reported results that beat expectations, although its revenue growth slowed.

- Quotes of Vail Resorts (MTN: -2.89%) declined as the company worsened its full-year earnings and EBITDA guidance on the back of weak spring traffic and costs associated with the CEO change. Additional pressure on quotations was exerted by the reported decline in North American ski pass sales and currency losses.

- Shares of G-III Apparel Group (GIII: -18.7%) collapsed amid weak second-quarter guidance and high uncertainty about the outlook for the next reporting periods. The company withdrew its full-year EBITDA guidance, citing tariff and macroeconomic risks, and warned that supply chain issues will negatively impact sales in the second half of the year.