New York City morning: focus on job openings and industrial sentiment

Daily review and forecast of events on the US stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The first trading day of July will be packed with macroeconomic news. The key release this Tuesday will be the release of May's JOLTS job openings data (consensus: 7.3 million, April: 7.39 million). A reading below 7 million will signal employers' increasingly cautious staffing policies or the beginning of a hiring slowdown phase. If the statistics come as a pleasant surprise and May's job openings exceed April's, investors will see this as a reduction in the risk of a slowdown in the economy, which will have a positive impact on stock performance.

In addition, the June industrial activity indices (PMI) from S&P Global (consensus: 49.3 points) and from ISM (consensus: 49.1 points) will be published. These statistics will allow to assess the level of industry resilience amid uncertainty about the White House tariff policy. Construction spending data for May (consensus: 0.2% mom, April: -0.4%) will also be released.

At the forum of the European Central Bank in Portugal, the head of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell will speak. The investment community is not expecting new statements from him, his rhetoric is likely to be restrained.

U.S. President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline for imposing new tariffs is getting closer, while contradictory signals from the White House administration keep coming. Harsh statements about «mirror» tariffs and the threat of new duties, for example, for Japan, increase fears of a possible short-term escalation of trade conflicts. However, this will be seen as part of a comprehensive negotiating tactic. Meanwhile, the EU has expressed willingness to accept a universal tariff of 10% on a wide range of its products, while trying to defend exemptions for strategically important sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and aircraft manufacturing. Trading partner states are keen to finalize deals before the deadline. In this regard, any news on the progress of negotiations and conclusion of trade agreements will influence the dynamics of U.S. stock markets.

Futures on S&P 500 shows consolidation. For the upcoming session, we forecast an average level of volatility with a neutral balance of risks. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 6140-6270 points (from -1% to +1% relative to the closing level of the previous session).

- Donald Trump has suggested that his Department of Doge Efficiency should audit the subsidies received by Tesla (TSLA) companies to save money in the budget.

- Shares of Progress Software (PRGS) are down 3.7% in the postmarket, although the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and its full-year guidance was improved. Revenue, however, came in slightly below expectations.

- Halozyme (HALO) rose 2.7% after the close of major trading on news of its inclusion in the Russell 1000 index.

- AeroVironment (AVAV), Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) and Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) shares sagged after announcing plans for a stock offering.

Trading on June 30 on the U.S. stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached another record high, rising 0.52% and 0.64% respectively, the Dow Jones added 0.63%, the Russell 2000 was up 0.12%. The Magnificent Seven stocks, with the exception of Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), all posted positive gains. Most of the sectors included in the broad market index closed in the plus. Technology companies (XLK: +0.98%) were the leaders of growth. The outsiders were manufacturers of durable goods (XLY: -0.58%).

The Chicago Business Activity Index fell to 40.4 points in June from 40.5 a month earlier, while it was forecasted to rise to 43 points. The index remains below the 50 mark separating growth from decline for 19 months in a row. The decline is due to the negative dynamics of the components of shipments, production, employment, as well as the volume of unfinished orders, which fell to the lowest level since May 2020. At the same time, there was a slight recovery in the new orders indicator. Inventory levels fell 8 points and prices rose 8.3 points, reaching their highest level since May 2022. 70% of companies reported cost increases.

- Apple (AAPL: +2%) could bring in Anthropic or OpenAI for a new version of Siri, which would help accelerate the development of the AI trend.

- Robinhood (HOOD: +12.8%) shares rose on the launch of stock tokens, its own Layer 2 blockchain network and the expansion of its crypto service in the EU and US.

- GMS (GMS: +11.7%) shares soared after news of the acquisition by Home Depot (HD: -0.57%) for $110 per share (+13% to Friday's closing price). The deal, which could be finalized by the end of the year, is valued at approximately $5.5 billion.

- Palantir (PLTR: +4.3%) announced a strategic partnership with Accenture (ACN: +1.16%) to deliver AI solutions to US federal clients.

- Shares of Oracle (ORCL: +4%) rose after reporting a major cloud services contract, with annual revenues that could exceed $30 billion from 2028. CEO Safra Catz confirmed that cloud database revenues continue to grow at more than 100% per year.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor