New York morning: focus on job stats, trade talks and new duties

Daily review and forecast of events on the US stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key macroeconomic release this Tuesday will be the release of April JOLTS open job openings data (consensus: 7.06 million, March: 7.19 million). A reading below 6.9 million will signal employers' increasingly cautious staffing policies or the beginning of a hiring slowdown phase. If the statistics provide a pleasant surprise and April's job openings remain close to March's, investors will see this as an easing of the risk of an economic slowdown, which will have a positive impact on stock performance.

In addition, data on durable goods applications and factory orders will be released today, which will provide a more accurate assessment of industrial demand and investment activity at the current U.S. foreign trade rate.

The Trump administration is demanding that key trading partners, including the EU, India and Japan, submit tariff and quota proposals by June 4 in order to speed up the negotiation process. Washington promises to offer compromise versions of tariff terms as soon as possible. However, despite the agreement reached with the UK, negotiations with the EU are progressing with difficulty. A meeting with the alliance delegation in Paris is scheduled for this week.

Additional pressure on the markets was exerted by the decision of the head of the White House to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum up to 50%. This caused sharp criticism from Canada and the EU. In parallel, tensions with China continue to grow after mutual accusations of violation of previous trade agreements. Against this background, volatility remains high: the investment community takes into account in prices both possible breakthroughs in negotiations and threats of further escalation.

Prior to the opening of the main session, Dollar General (DG), Ferguson (FERG), Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI), NIO (NIO) and Signet Jewelers (SIG) will release quarterly results. At the postmarket, CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard (HPE) and Asana (ASAN) will present financial results.

Futures on S&P 500 demonstrate moderately negative dynamics. For the upcoming session, we forecast a high level of volatility with a neutral balance of risks. We focus on S&P 500 movements in the range of 5850-6010 points (from -1.4% to +1.3% relative to the closing level of the previous session).

- Rilzabrutinib, a drug from Sanofi (SNY) for the treatment of sickle cell anemia, has been granted orphan drug status by the FDA.

- Shares of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) rose sharply following Financial Times reports of Merck's plans to buy the company for more than $3 billion. The potential deal has increased speculative investor interest in MLTX stock.

- The securities of Neuronetics (STIM) have received support amid the inclusion of the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes, which is fueling passive capital inflows from index funds and driving demand for the issuers' securities.

- Quotes of Credo Technology (CRDO) are up more than 12% in the post-market as its EPS and revenue for the quarter came in at $0.35 million and $170 million with consensus of $0.27 million and $159.6 million, respectively.

Trading on June 2 on U.S. stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 was up 0.41%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.71%, the Dow Jones added a symbolic 0.08%, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.19%. The «Magnificent Seven» stocks, with the exception of Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL), showed positive momentum. Almost all sectors included in the broad market index closed in the plus. Energy companies (XLE: +1.31%) were the leaders of growth on the background of WTI oil quotations growth by more than 3.5%. The only outsider was the industrial sector (XLI: -0.13%).

ISM Business Activity Index (PMI) in industry decreased to 48.5 with a consensus forecast of 49.5. Negative dynamics of the index is recorded for the third month in a row. Against the background of uncertainty in the course of U.S. foreign trade there was a decline in the segments of new orders, employment and exports. Industrial PMI from S&P Global, according to the final assessment, was downgraded to 52 points with the average forecasts of 52.3, but remains above the border of 50, signaling growth. This was due to improved business sentiment amid hopes of stabilizing trade relations. Tariff risks continue to put pressure on prices and logistics, but companies are adapting to the situation by building up inventories and cautiously increasing employment.

- Alphabet (GOOGL: -1.6%) shares declined after reports of Samsung's talks to invest in Perplexity AI and the possible integration of its search «engine» into Galaxy S26 devices.

- Quotes of BioNTech (BNTX: +18.1%) reacted positively to the conclusion of a strategic partnership with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY: +1.1%) for the development of the antibody BNT327. BioNTech will receive $1.5 billion immediately and another $2 billion in fixed payments through 2028.

- The securities of Tesla (TSLA: -1.1%) went down on news of a management dispute over the future of the Model 2 and a 67% y/y drop in sales in France.

- Shares of Blueprint Medicines (BPMC: +26.1%) rose on the announcement that it will acquire Sanofi (SNY: -0.36%) for $129 per share, valuing the company at $9.1 billion at a 27% premium to the previous close.

- Quotes of Applied Digital (APLD: +48.5%) soared on the back of its agreement with CoreWeave (CRWV: +7.99%) on two 15-year, 250 MW AI data center leases in North Dakota.