New York Morning: September kicks off with a risk-off sign

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The key event of the day will be the publication of the JOLTS report for July, which may confirm the continuing trend of weakening labor market - the number of open vacancies is expected to fall to 7.25 million (previous value: 7.44 million). Against the backdrop of the Fed's recent statements about growing employment risks, moderately weak data may reinforce expectations of monetary easing, supporting interest in the stock market. However, a sharper deterioration in the data could increase recession fears and trigger a correction. The Fed's Beige Book, an overview of the U.S. economy that the regulator uses to prepare for the meeting, will also be released. Estimates of demand, prices, wages and credit conditions will help the market to understand how likely further policy easing is: signs of slowdown will support such expectations, while signals of stability - on the contrary, may weaken them.

Dollar Tree (DLTR), Campbell Company (CPB), Macy's (M), and REV Group (REVG) will report before the market opens. After the close, Salesforce (CRM), Figma (FIG ), Credo Technology Group (CRDO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE ), C3.ai (AI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and GitLab (GTLB ) will report.

US index futures are pointing to a positive opening thanks to a favorable court ruling on Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL). The balance of risks is neutral; expected volatility is moderate. We focus on S&P 500 fluctuations in the range of 6360-6480 points (from -0.9% to +1.0% to the previous session's closing level).

- A federal judge's ruling in an antitrust case removed the threat of a forced sale of Chrome and Android, allowing Google to keep key contracts, including annual payments to Apple for its default use of Google Search. Alphabet (GOOGL) shares rose 7.5% in the postmarket, while Apple (AAPL) securities rose 3%.

- The placement of mandatory convertible prefs for $600 mln (option up to $690 mln) with the funds to be used for debt reduction caused pressure on Bruker's (BRKR) securities. In the post-market, the securities shed about 10% on fears of dilution and repricing risk.

- The inclusion of TechnipFMC (FTI) in the S&P MidCap 400 Index supported the securities with a post-market gain of 5% thanks to expected ETF flows.

- A similar rebalancing effect helped United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) - inclusion in the S&P SmallCap 600 led to a 5% gain after market close.

- Zscaler's (ZS) strong quarterly results - revenue, earnings and billings growth above expectations, as well as sales guidance for FY 2026 above consensus - supported the stock, which added about 2% in the post-market.

On Tuesday, September 2, US indices closed in the negative: the S&P 500 showed a downward movement of 0.69%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.79%, the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 lost 0.55% and 0.60%, respectively. Market pressure was shaped by profit taking at the start of a seasonally weak September and uncertainty surrounding the fate of Donald Trump's duties following the appeals court ruling, which intensified risk-off and rotation out of the beneficiaries of the rally. Among the "Magnificent Seven" participants, Nvidia (NVDA: -1.95%) looked worse than the market, while Microsoft (MSFT: -0.31%) declined minimally. Most sectors declined: the outsider was real estate (XLRE: -1.70%); energy (XLE: +0.14%) was in a slight plus.

The macro backdrop was mixed, with the ISM Manufacturing index for August coming in at 48.7p (consensus: 49.0p; July: 48.0p). New orders returned to expansionary territory (51.4p), while output declined (47.8p) and employment remained weak (43.8p). Price pressures eased but remain elevated (price index: 63.7 p.). Customer inventories (44.6p) and backlogs (44.7p) declined faster, indicating weakening demand. Respondents widely cited the negative effects of duties (higher costs, chain failures, reduced competitiveness). The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 53.0 p. vs. a preliminary 53.3 p. (July: 49.8 p.), highlighting the divergence with the ISM. In addition, construction spending in July unexpectedly declined by 0.1% m/m against expectations of +0.4% m/m. Market reaction was subdued-negative: pressure on cyclical and rate-sensitive sectors coupled with persistent headwinds in manufacturing amid tariff uncertainty.

- Shares of Cytokinetics (CYTK: +40.5%) rose after the drug Aficamten showed a statistically significant benefit on the key measure of pVO₂ over metoprolol in the Phase III MAPLE-HCM study, boosting expectations for its registration and commercialization.

- Additional positivity came from Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS: +34.8%): positive results from the CORE and CORE2 studies for olesarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia were announced, expanding the potential market and increasing the chances of regulatory approval.

- United Therapeutics (UTHR: +32.8%) also had strong data: in the pivotal TETON-2 trial, inhaled drug Tyvaso achieved its primary endpoint in the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, supporting the case for expanding the indication.

- Biogen (BIIB: +5.6%) saw positive share performance after the regulator approved Leqembi Iqlik, a subcutaneous injector for early-stage Alzheimer's disease.

- The growth of quotations at Freddie Mac (FMCC: +2.9%) was connected with reports about the US government's plans to sell about 5% stake in the company within the framework of partial privatization.

- PepsiCo (PEP: +1.1%) received a ~$4 billion investment from Elliott Management, which outlined measures to regain momentum, from revising North American spill to optimizing its brand portfolio and stock keeping units (SKUs).

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor