Oil, defense, agribusiness: Bloomberg compiled a guide for investors after Maduro's collapse

U.S. President Donald Trump is aiming to attract billions of dollars of American investment in Venezuela's oil industry. Bloomberg has compiled a guide on how investors are approaching the sudden set of opportunities created by the capture and arrest by the states of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Trump's key message is to get U.S. companies back to rebuilding the crumbling oil infrastructure, which could cost up to $100 billion over a decade. Chevron, whose presence in the country has been preserved, is in an advantageous position: TD Cowen estimates that the oil giant could increase its cash flow by $700 million annually if production returns to previous levels. However, other US majors - Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, which lost assets in the 2000s - are cautious, especially after Trump's announcement that the US will not make up for past losses. In addition, current oil prices around $60 a barrel make investing in the region less attractive compared to investing in AI, stated Cole Smead, head of Smead Capital Management.

The resumption of Venezuelan heavy crude supplies will be a positive factor for US refineries with high refining depth, such as Valero Energy and PBF Energy. Shares of some of them have already risen on expectations of increased utilization. Since imported diluents will be needed to transport high-viscosity crude from Venezuela, upside potential is also opening up for companies such as Phillips 66. Investors should also keep an eye on tanker fleet owners such as DHT Holdings and Frontline - they may get the transportation previously performed by the "shadow fleet", says Dwight Anderson, managing partner of hedge fund Ospraie Management.

Increased supply of similar quality oil from Venezuela poses a direct threat to Canadian producers exporting most of their oil to the US. Analysts at Hedgeye Risk Management warned of the risk of a growing discount on heavy oil, which would hit Canadian oil production. Players such as Imperial Oil and Cenovus Energy are most at risk.

Such giants as Glencore, Rio Tinto and Alcoa are interested not only in Venezuelan hydrocarbons, but also in the largest reserves of gold, bauxite and copper in the Western Hemisphere, but they should not expect a quick return. Venezuela's mining infrastructure is in critical condition, and many mines are controlled by criminal cartels, so the real investment horizon in this sector will not open until 2028-2030, says Anderson of Ospraie.

Oscar Decotelli, founder of Latin America-focused investment firm DXA, favors high-quality energy, infrastructure and real asset companies with indirect exposure to Venezuela. He pointed to Equinix as a beneficiary of the potential increase in digital infrastructure spending, as well as Latin American utility and logistics firms Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras, Equatorial and Rumo.

Rising geopolitical uncertainty following the change of power in Caracas, combined with Trump's plans to increase the US military budget, is provoking a global rally in defense stocks. Beneficiaries could include Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, Elbit Systems and General Dynamics, according to David Miller, chief investment officer at Catalyst Funds.

Venezuela's economic recovery could open up opportunities for global food producers, even though the Venezuelan market for U.S. exporters is now relatively small. DXA's Decotelli sees Bunge Global and Archer-Daniels-Midland shares as instruments benefiting from a potential increase in food imports into Venezuela.

The fall of Nicolas Maduro's regime has triggered a powerful rally in Venezuela 's defaulted bonds and the country's largest state-owned oil and gas company, Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), worth $60 billion. Speculators who bought these bonds for next to nothing in recent years are already locking in profits, selling them at around 30% of face value. Mark Mobius, a veteran investor in emerging markets, called Venezuela's oil-related bonds, especially those of PDVSA and partially owned U.S. Citgo Petroleum, a very attractive opportunity for foreign investors.

In a broader context, geopolitical uncertainty could drive bets on dollar strength, noted Wells Fargo strategist Arup Chatterjee. A significant increase in oil production has the potential to depress commodity prices, which has historically been positive for S&P 500 returns. However, with the index near all-time highs, Buffalo Bayou Commodities sees the current moment as a good time to hedge against a potential stock market correction and volatility spikes.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor