Oil won't be cheap after the war either. How Buffett and other gurus will make money on it

Oil prices may not return to their previous level even if the war in Iran is soon over and the Strait of Hormuz is opened, Goldman Sachs analysts warn. According to their assessment, due to damage to energy infrastructure, even in 2027 oil may cost more than the market expects. Oninvest analyzed the portfolios of influential investors and found out which oil stocks they preferred before the war started.

For our analysis, we used Form 13F reports, which all large investors in the U.S. are required to file at the end of each quarter. The latest available reports are for the fourth quarter of 2025. Investors must report on their transactions in the first quarter, when the war in Iran began, by mid-Ma.

Chevron is the second largest U.S. oil and gas company by capitalization(about $370 billion). It operates in exploration and production of oil and gas and refining of petroleum products.

Perhaps the most famous investor in Chevron is Berkshire Hathaway, which until this year was managed by Warren Buffett. The conglomerate owned 130.2 million shares of the company at the end of 2025, and the stake was valued at $19.8 billion. Chevron holds 7.2% of Berkshire's public portfolio and is one of the top five largest positions. Berkshire first entered Chevron in the third quarter of 2020, buying 44 million shares. The fund has reduced its Chevron stake several times, including by 50% in early 2021, but then increased its investment again. It last bought shares in the fourth quarter of 2025. After that quarter, Buffett stopped managing Berkshire's investments, but remained its chairman and shareholder.

Among other well-known shareholders of Chevron is billionaire Ken Fisher: his fund holds a stake worth $3.3 billion (1.1% of the portfolio). Fisher Asset Management has owned Chevron securities for more than 20 years and has been almost continuously increasing its stake since the energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Also invested in Chevron are billionaire Ken Griffin, British investor Jeremy Grantham, known as the "eternal bear," and Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Asset Management. But each of them has less than 0.1% of their portfolio in Chevron stock.

Exxon Mobil is the largest oil and gas company in the United States with a market capitalization of approximately $620 billion. The company is engaged in exploration and production of oil and gas, transportation, refining, production of fuels and petrochemicals.

Ken Fisher has the most prominent position in Exxon Mobil. His fund holds $3.8 billion worth of the company's securities: this is 1.3% of the portfolio and the 20th largest position of Fisher Asset Management. The fund grew its position the most at the turn of 2023 and 2024: in the fourth quarter of 2023, the stake rose by 565%, and in the first quarter of 2024 - by another 100%. In 2025, Fisher continued to buy securities every quarter in a row.

Steven Cohen, founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management, has Exxon in about 0.2% of his portfolio, with a position value of $135 million. Grantham and Greenblatt have smaller positions: in their portfolios Exxon occupies 0.1% each. Ken Griffin has only 0.04% of his portfolio allocated to Exxon, with a position value of $2.2 million.

Shell is a British oil and gas giant with a market capitalization of about $250 billion. Shell is present in more than 70 countries and combines oil and gas production with refining, trading of raw materials, production of petrochemicals.

Ken Fisher's fund holds nearly $2 billion worth of Shell securities: that's 0.7% of the portfolio.

Bridgewater Associates fund, founded by Ray Dalio, started picking Shell in the third quarter of 2024. Now Shell securities occupy 0.3% of the fund's portfolio, the value of the position is $74 mln. Ken Griffin's Citadel reduced its position in Shell by 94% in the fourth quarter of 2025 - now it is valued at only $10 mln, while the value of the entire portfolio is more than $65 bln.

Jeremy Grantham has Shell holding 0.01% of the portfolio with a position value of $5.4 million; the fund has also sold paper three out of four quarters of 2025.

In 2024, Joel Greenblatt sold his entire stake in Shell, which was valued at $2 million (0.03%). His fund Gotham Asset Management re-entered Shell in the first quarter of 2025, and now has a minimum stake of $564k, or about 0.002% of the portfolio.

TotalEnergies is a French energy company with a market capitalization of approximately $193 billion. The company operates in approximately 120 countries and is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, refining, petrochemicals, feedstock trading and fuel marketing.

TotalEnergies entered the portfolios of several well-known investors at once in the fourth quarter of 2025. Ken Fisher opened the largest position: his fund bought shares worth $1.3 billion (0.4% of the portfolio). Jeremy Grantham opened a position with a stake worth $101 million, which is 0.3% of the portfolio and the 43rd largest GMO position.

Other investors have noticeably smaller positions in TotalEnergies. Stephen Cohen bought $1.94 mln worth of securities, Joel Greenblatt bought $305 thou - these are negligible shares among the assets under their management.

ConocoPhillips is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the United States with a market capitalization of approximately $152 billion. The company focuses primarily on oil and gas exploration and production.

Ken Fisher has the most notable stake in ConocoPhillips: his fund's stake is valued at $1.4 billion and occupies 0.5% of the portfolio. and Joel Greenblatt. GMO Jeremy Grantham's stake in ConocoPhillips is valued at $63 million (0.2% of the portfolio); Joel Greenblatt's stake is valued at $15.4 million (0.06%).

By the end of 2025, Ken Griffin's Citadel had reduced its position in ConocoPhillips by 68%: the ConocoPhillips stake is now worth $61.3 million and occupies 0.01% of the portfolio. Steven Cohen's fund, which has held the company since 2014, reduced its stake by 45% during the same period. The position now holds 0.01% of the portfolio ($10.2 million).

BP is the second largest British oil and gas company after Shell with a market capitalization of about $119 billion. The company is engaged in exploration and production of oil and gas, refining, trading and marketing of fuels.

Ken Fisher's fund again holds the most notable stake: it is valued at $2.3 billion, the 33rd largest position of Fisher Investments. The fund sharply increased its bet on the company in the first quarter of 2025, increasing its stake by 161% - just when BP revised its strategy, announcing that it would reduce investments in low-carbon and green projects and put more emphasis on increasing oil and gas production. After that, Fisher Asset Management continued to buy BP shares every quarter. Steven Cohen has BP at 0.06% of his portfolio, with a position value of $53.1 million. His fund has held the securities since 2015. He reduced his stake by 68% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The movement of other investors was less linear. Bridgewater, which has held BP for many years, after selling off in the first half of 2025, returned to buying shares in the fourth quarter: the stake is now worth $17 million and occupies 0.06% of the portfolio. Ken Griffin's Citadel, after increasing its position by 500% at the beginning of the year, began to wind it down by the end of 2025: in the fourth quarter, the fund reduced its stake by 63.4%, and now it is valued at $89 million (0.01% of the portfolio).

SLB (formerly Schlumberger) is the largest oilfield services company in the world with a market capitalization of $81 billion. It serves upstream companies: it helps find fields, drill and build wells, evaluate reservoirs and manage production.

Citadel's stake in SLB is now valued at $35.7 million and represents 0.01% of the portfolio.

Ken Fisher has held Schlumberger for more than 20 years. Now his stake is valued at $40.1 mln (0.01% of the portfolio). Steven Cohen's Point72 stake in SLB is valued at $109.2 mln, which is 0.1% of the portfolio.

In addition, Michael Burry, a well-known short-seller, revealed that he holds Schlumberger securities for a long time, but there is no exact data on how many shares are in his portfolio: the investor closed the Scion Asset Management fund and now is not obliged to report on transactions.

Valero Energy is the world's largest independent refiner with a market capitalization of approximately $70 billion. The company focuses on refining crude oil and producing fuels.

Valero is the most prominent in Joel Greenblatt's portfolio: the company accounts for 0.1%, the value of the stake is $32.6 mln. In the first half of 2025, his fund reduced its stake, but in the second half of the year it returned to purchases: in the third quarter the stake increased by 82%, in the fourth quarter - by another 180%. In the fourth quarter, Citadel increased its position in Valero by 76%, and now Ken Griffin's stake in the company is 0.02%, with the stake valued at $135.9 million.

Bridgewater Associates has 0.05% of its portfolio in Valero, with a position value of $14 mln. Bridgewater has held the securities longer than any other disclosed investor - since 2005. After exiting the paper in 2024, the fund returned to it in the third quarter of 2025 and almost doubled the stake in the following quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Jeremy Grantham opened a position in Valero, the value of his stake is estimated at $1.3 million, but the share in the portfolio is rounded down to zero.

Michael Burry, analyzing the implications of the U.S. operation in Venezuela, wrote that he has owned Valero shares since 2020, "And after this weekend (after Nicolás Maduro's takeover by the U.S. in January 2026. - Oninvest) is even stronger in his desire to hold them."

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor