"One of the least risky securities": what do Wall Street expect from the Netflix report?

Netflix will release its second-quarter financial results on July 17 after the close of trading in New York, and analysts are counting on another strong report. According to LSEG's consensus forecast, the U.S. streaming giant will announce earnings of $7.08 per share and revenue of $11.07 billion. Those numbers would represent a 45% increase in earnings and a 15.8% increase in revenue compared to the same quarter last year, reports CNBC. The expected growth should follow a strong first quarter in which Netflix grew revenue by 13% and significantly beat Wall Street's profit expectations thanks to a price hike on data plans in late January.

Netflix's shares are up 40% since the start of 2025 and 30% in the past three months. By comparison, the S&P 500 has added just 6.5% since January and that's thanks to the recent rally  - the benchmark U.S. stock index is up 19% over the past 90 days. On the eve of the publication of the Netflix report, Wall Street analysts generally remain optimistic. 34 of 49 economists who have analytical coverage on the stock of the streaming giant recommend buying the company's securities (Buy and Strong Buy ratings). The remaining 15 experts are neutral (Hold rating), CNBC reports, citing LSEG data.

- Bank of America (Buy rating, $1490 target price). Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich sees the potential for Netflix stock to rise 19% year-to-date to its July 16 close: "Netflix has one of the best year-to-date performances among the companies we cover, supported by solid earnings growth, positive momentum in subscriber numbers and the resilience of Netflix's business to the negative impact of duties. We continue to view Netflix as a company in a strong position due to its scale in streaming, potential for further audience growth, significant opportunities in advertising and sports streaming, and continued growth in earnings and free cash flow."

- Jefferies (Buy rating, $1400 target price). Analyst James Heaney predicts a 12 percent upside: "Despite the stock rising since the beginning of the year and trading at a five-year high, investors became more cautious ahead of the second-quarter report. Nevertheless, the next 12 months look positive: higher pricing in the U.S., a stronger content pipeline in the second half of the year and improved ad monetization will support double-digit revenue growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. An additional driver could be an increase in operating margin guidance for 2025 to above 30%."

Guggenheim Securities (Buy rating, $1400 target price). An analyst group led by Michael Morris raised its target on Netflix shares from $1150 to $1400: "We remain confident in the company's ability to create shareholder value through its industry-leading content selection and distribution mechanisms. These we expect will lead to expanded potential revenue streams (including both pricing and potential partnerships) as well as margin expansion." At the same time, Guggenheim reminded us that Netflix's latest user engagement report showed that total time spent watching content was the same as it was two years ago, despite a growing subscriber base. This could indicate that new users are watching less, or that older users have started watching less frequently, writes Barron's.

Evercore ISI (Outperform rating, $1350 target price). Analyst Mark Mahaney expects quotes to grow by 8%: "We consider Netflix one of the least risky securities this quarter. Wall Street consensus forecasts for revenue, operating income and earnings per share look reasonable." In addition, Netflix has consistently beaten its own revenue and operating profit forecasts - and that creates an extra margin of confidence among investors, the economist added.

JPMorgan (Neutral rating, $1220 target price). Analyst Doug Anmuth back in May reduced Netflix's rating from "Overweight" to Neutral and is betting on a more than 2% decline in the stock: "Our long-term positive view of Netflix's leading position in streaming and its potential to eventually become a virtually worldwide TV service remains unchanged. However, in the short term, the risk/return ratio on Netflix shares has become more balanced following a significant rise in quotations and outperformance."

Loop Capital (Hold rating, $1150 target price). Analyst Alan Gould predicts an 8% correction in the stock over the course of the year: "We maintain a positive view on Netflix itself, but remain neutral on its shares due to its inflated valuation: the stock is trading at nearly a 50x multiple to earnings. Netflix deserves a premium, but we don't share the bullish view that it should be valued on par with retail giants like Costco. Netflix has won the streaming wars, but its business is still transforming, and we believe this reduces earnings predictability - while the company has shown high volatility in the past."

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