Oracle shares rise to record after 'stunning' forecast. Will the rally continue?

Shares of cloud company Oracle jumped more than 14% to a new all-time high in trading on June 12. Investors were impressed by the company's «stunning» revenue forecast for the current fiscal year after strong results for the fourth quarter. Analysts one after another began to raise their target price for the company's securities, noting how quickly its image has changed from a conservative IT giant to a modern cloud business able to capitalize on the boom in artificial intelligence.

On June 12, Oracle quotes soared by more than 14% to $202.45. This became their all-time record on the stock exchange. Including Thursday's gains, Oracle's market value is up more than 20% from where it was at the beginning of the year. By comparison, the main U.S. stock index, the S&P 500, gained about 2.5% during the same time added. 

Investors were cheered by the company's strong forecast for fiscal 2026. Oracle expects cloud revenue to grow 40%, compared to a 24% increase in 2025. Cloud infrastructure (OCI) revenue is forecast to add more than 70% (up from 50% in 2025).

«Fiscal 2025 was a very successful year, but we are confident that 2026 will be even better, with revenue growth accelerating significantly,» said Oracle CEO Safra Catz.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended May 31), Oracle's revenue rose 11% year-over-year to $15.9 billion and adjusted EPS was $1.7. Both figures were above Wall Street forecasts of $15.6 billion and $1.64, respectively, noted Barron's, citing FactSet data.

- After the quarterly report, KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader raised his target price on Oracle shares to $225 from $200 (27% above Wednesday's close) and maintained an Overweight rating (above market). Ader noted in Barron's presentation that the company's reported targets appear «stunning,» but cautioned: for now, they are «just targets.» Oracle failed to realize its stated revenue growth plans last year, he noted. Nevertheless, investors don't necessarily need to believe in the company's ambitious forecast to expect positive dynamics in the coming quarters, the analyst said. According to him, Oracle is increasing the volume of orders «at an impressive pace», thanks to which the company will be able to achieve at least part of the goals.

- Jefferies analyst Brent Till also raised his target price from $200 to $220, maintaining a Buy recommendation. Till said that Oracle's financial results show how seriously and quickly the company is growing its AI business. He added that Oracle is already showing high growth even without taking into account Donald Trump's announced AI project Stargate, in which the company will participate. This, according to the analyst, indicates strong and sustained demand for both AI projects and from regular enterprise customers. 

- Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow reiterated an Overweight rating for Oracle shares and a target price of $202 apiece. He said Oracle's results will reignite investor interest in the company and boost confidence that it can meet its ambitious growth targets. «Oracle has been trying to convey to investors that things have changed, but volatile quarterly results allowed market participants to remain skeptical. Now, however - thanks to a strong fourth quarter, and more importantly, increased commitments to remaining contracts and a new outlook - the picture is much clearer and can no longer be ignored,» wrote Lenschow.

- Oracle's image has changed dramatically: while the company used to be associated with a conservative IT giant, it is now perceived as a modern cloud wizard, notes Michael Ashley Shulman, a partner at Running Point Capital Advisors. According to him, the competitive picture in the market is also different now - it no longer looks like a classic strategy with a few big players, but like a massive «battle of all against all,» with multiple participants vying for access to computing resources like trophies in a game.

- Piper Sandler raised its target price on Oracle shares by nearly half - from $130 to $190 (up 8% from the last close), but maintained a neutral rating on them. «Oracle has entered a new era of popularity in the enterprise segment that the company hasn't seen since the Internet boom of the late '90s,» noted a Piper Sandler analyst. However, he pointed to rising capital risks that could increase the company's net debt and put pressure on its margins in the short term. According to Piper Sandler, this could increase volatility in Oracle's stock.

Oracle securities now have no sell recommendations from analysts, according to data from MarketWatch. 27 analysts advise buying the stock (Buy and Overweight), while the remaining 14 are neutral (Hold).

However, the Wall Street consensus target price for Oracle's stock is $180, which is 10% below current quotes.