Smile diplomacy and unfulfilled expectations: how the Anchorage summit will affect markets

The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and American leader Donald Trump in Alaska was the main event of August, but expectedly did not bring the main thing - a ceasefire agreement. Instead of signed documents, the market received impressive decorations: a red carpet, handshakes and smiles at the military base and promises to continue dialog. For some, this is Russia's return to the world stage; for others, it is a Trump-style theater of peacemaking. And for investors, it is an important reminder that inflated expectations quickly fizzle out, says Astero Falcon portfolio manager Alyona Nikolaeva.

For almost three hours, the presidents talked behind closed doors. At the end of the meeting, the usual set of diplomatic epithets: "constructive atmosphere," "businesslike and trusting contact," and "progress on a number of points. Trump rated the meeting "ten out of ten," while Putin emphasized that the dialogue could become a reference point for the future of the world. But behind the facade of optimism remained the main fact: the absence of a ceasefire agreement or even a protocol of intentions. The extended round of talks was canceled, and so was the delegations' lunch. After the protocol statements, the two leaders hurriedly departed.

For Moscow, the summit was not about Ukraine directly. The Russian leader came to the talks with three goals in mind. The first and main one was to discuss the new international world order: how the rules of the game will be organized after the conflict and how the United States and Russia will share responsibility for global stability. The second, of course, is sanctions. There are a huge number of them, and without a mechanism for lifting or easing restrictions, any talk of "peace" will be incomplete. But only the third is the Ukrainian issue, and precisely as part of more global goals, not as an independent subject.

In this sense, the meeting has already brought the Kremlin the desired result: a return to the political stage and recognition of its status as a negotiator. The red carpet in Anchorage, the joint trip in a Cadillac, the symbolism of "neighbors across four kilometers in the Bering Strait" - all this is an important demonstration that Russia is back in the big game.

Trump played in his own style: before the Anchorage summit, he threatened sanctions against Russian oil buyers. But after the meeting, he said that "for now" no new measures were needed. This "for now" leaves room for pressure.

His thesis is simple and traditional: "there is no deal until there is no deal". At the same time, he shifted responsibility to the authorities in Kiev, saying that now "everything depends" on Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. At the same time, for Trump, making peace is a personally significant story, his attempt to try on the role of a peacemaker.

Already on Saturday, Trump called Zelensky and European leaders (according to Axios journalist Barak Ravid, the conversation "was not easy"). The Ukrainian president is traveling to Washington to meet Trump on Monday, August 18.

In any case, no real progress can be expected without direct contact between the parties to the conflict. And everything we have seen so far is only a prelude.

Investors were waiting for the meeting, in my opinion, with excessive optimism. The price of assets was based on a possible ceasefire, a relaxation of sanctions, or at least a "paper of intentions". As a result, they received gestures and smiles.

The result is logical. The Russian market may lose a couple of percent.

Gold should get an influx of investor funds - after all, the uncertainty hasn't gone anywhere.

Players in the oil market will behave cautiously. In the absence of new US sanctions against buyers of Russian crude, the risk of shock is reduced, but there is no clarity about future flows.

For global markets, the summit is rather regarded as a non-event: in fact, it does not change anything in the current world picture.

Wall Street is living in the August lull ahead of the Fed rate meeting on Sept. 16-17, Europe with corporate reporting and its local challenges.

The talks between the heads of the US and Russia in Anchorage once again showed that politics prioritizes symbols, while markets always wait for specifics. So far it is more news noise, and there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead. However, new leaks of the details of the talks are possible by the opening of the markets on Monday, and volatility may rise because of this.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor