"Strong growth momentum": how analysts assessed the opening of the Chinese market for Nvidia
So far, the company is not sure how many chips are covered by the new export authorizations or how long they will be in effect

Wall Street raised its forecasts for Nvidia shares following a report that the chipmaker plans to resume shipments of an export variant of its AI chips to China, reports CNBC. The U.S. government has assured the company that it will issue export licenses to the company, which means the barrier to accessing a key market will be removed. Now Nvidia's revenue will grow even faster, one analyst predicted, expecting the company's capitalization to grow to $5 trillion. Just a few weeks ago, it became the first in history to reach the $4 trillion mark.
What Wall Street analysts are saying
- Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes raised his target price on Nvidia shares to $235, which implies a 38% upside from the stock's closing level on Tuesday, July 15. He believes the return to the Chinese market will be a strong driver for the company, combined with other tailwinds, and expects its capitalization to reach $5 trillion. "That means not only an acceleration in revenue in the second half of fiscal 2026, but also a strong growth momentum in the first half of 2027," Reitzes wrote in a note quoted by CNBC. The analyst didn't rule out that nearly all of the quarterly revenue shortfall from China's H20 export chip sales - $8 billion - could return as early as the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 thanks to pent-up demand. In that case, cumulative revenue growth could be 59% in 2026 and 38% in 2027.
- Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer forecasts Nvidia's stock price to rise about 17% -- he raised his target to $200. As noted Schafer told CNBC, "a number of structural factors, such as the growing popularity of generative AI, demand for AI gas pedals, and chips for autonomous cars, will continue to support the company's sustained strong revenue growth."
- Bernstein analyst Stacey Rasgon reiterated a target price of $185, which is 8% above the last close. He believes that while Nvidia is unlikely to have time to ship much product to China in the remaining weeks of its fiscal second quarter, the positive effect of the lifting of restrictions will be felt in the second half of the year. "We are pleased to see that Nvidia can once again at least partially compete in China. This reduces systemic risks," CNBC quoted the analyst as saying. He estimates that every $10 billion in recovered revenue will add about $0.25 to EPS. An additional $15-20 billion in revenue could boost FY 2026 EPS by $0.4-0.5 - which would end up being 10% higher than the current Wall Street consensus.
- Analyst Evercore ISI Mark Lipasis maintained a target price of $190 per Nvidia share. He agrees that if restrictions on H20 chips are fully lifted, the company could generate over $10 billion in revenue in the short term. "Assuming margins of 70-75% on $2.75 billion of inventory, it turns out the company could earn about $10 billion on these chips, and since the product has already been written off, selling it could yield a much higher gross margin," CNBC quoted Lipasis' note as saying.
- Citi Atif Malik, an analyst at Citi, reiterated a $190 target price, expecting Nvidia's stock to rise 11%, but advised investors to "take a wait-and-see attitude" and not yet include Chinese revenue back into valuation models. However, he emphasized that China remains an important market for Nvidia in its gaming and networking segments - it also helps the company sell some chips that can be used for computing.
What happened
Nvidia has overcome one of the key restrictions preventing sales of exported H20 chips to China. The company reported on Tuesday that it expects to resume shipping them to the PRC market soon, as Washington has lifted restrictions in place since April and promised to issue export licenses. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also revealed that the company has released a new RTX Pro GPU that fully complies with U.S. export restrictions.
Shares of Nvidia gained 4 percent in Tuesday trading, while its rival AMD, which also confirmed the resumption of shipments to China, rose 6.4 percent. Buoyed by gains in semiconductor stocks, the Nasdaq Composite index finished Tuesday trading at a record high, rising 0.2% to 20,677.8 points. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed in negative territory following the release of conflicting inflation data.
"This is a positive signal not only for Nvidia and its associated supply chain, but also for the broader markets given the impact of this decision on trade talks between the U.S. and China," explained Bloomberg portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors Richard Claude.
Is it that easy to get back into the Chinese market?
The issuance of new licenses for U.S. semiconductor companies to export AI chips to China does not yet guarantee Nvidia a full-fledged return to active business in the country, accounts Bloomberg. According to the agency's source, neither Nvidia nor AMD is sure how many chips are covered by the new export permits or how long they will be in effect. In China, U.S. chipmakers are still only allowed to sell simplified, outdated versions of their products.
At the same time, many local companies actively developing their own AI models have already started switching to local suppliers. Lobbying for the resumption of supplies, Nvidia's CEO warned that by imposing bans, the White House has essentially handed the Chinese market into the hands of Huawei Technologies, Bloomberg recalls.
Inside the United States, there remain supporters of China's isolation who will demand the cancelation of supplies of U.S. chips, the agency said. According to Republican John Mullenar, the House Select Committee on China plans to ask the Commerce Department for clarification on the reversal of the decision to ban supplies.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor