Tesla robotaxi: breakthrough or mirage? Saxo Bank on expectations and risks before the launch

June 22 could be a turning point in Tesla's history: the company is expected to finally put its first self-driving cars on the road. According to Saxo Bank, the project so far looks more like a cautious experiment than a revolutionary innovation. Investors are expecting high volatility: whether the launch will be a real breakthrough or just another of Ilon Musk's ambitious illusions is still a question.

A Tesla robotaxi pilot project using about a dozen autonomous Model Y vehicles running Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is set to launch Sunday in Austin, Texas. While these robotaxis are positioned as fully autonomous, they will run in strictly limited geo-zones under remote operator control. In the opinion of Jacob Falkenron, head of global investment strategy at Saxo Bank, this shows that Tesla's launch will be an example of maneuvering through the regulatory landscape rather than a bold technological leap.

«Tesla's robotaxi debut looks more like a cautious experiment than a grand revolution - a far cry from the show that [CEO Elon] Musk originally promised,» Falkenron wrote.

Tesla's $1 trillion market capitalization rests largely on future innovation, not just existing car sales, says Saxo Bank. The autonomous cab market implies a profound shift - not just incremental growth, but a complete rethinking of the economy. 

Analysts estimate that robotaxis could reduce the cost of travel by up to 70%, revolutionizing urban transportation and turning Tesla from a carmaker into a global mobility leader, Saxo writes. Tesla's huge global fleet, which can be turned into robotaxis with software updates, only increases the scale of the market opportunity.

«Robotaxis could completely change Tesla's revenue model and over time overtake the business of selling cars. It's not just about innovation - it's a chance to completely rewrite the economics of transportation,» the strategist writes.

Although the June 22 launch is imminent, skepticism remains, the bank notes. On June 19, Democratic lawmakers in Texas publicly urged Tesla to delay the launch until the fall when new safety laws go into effect, pointing to serious gaps in current standards. Additionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is actively investigating Tesla's autonomous systems after a number of incidents, including the tragic death of a man in Arizona in March 2018. Tesla's insistence on using only cameras, without radar or lidar (like Waymo or Volkswagen), raises serious safety concerns, especially in blinding sun or poor visibility, Saxo Bank warned.

«The regulatory hurdles for Tesla are significant. Investors should be prepared: another delay or rollback of the project is a very real risk,» Falkenron said.

Historically, Tesla stock has behaved predictably around product launches: rising on expectations, falling after the actual accomplishment. With Tesla stock already trading at inflated prices, the company has almost no margin for error, Saxo Bank notes. Analysts warn that if the launch encounters even minor setbacks, such as technical glitches or the need for operator intervention, the market reaction could be swift and severe.

But if Tesla successfully demonstrates its capabilities - even with a modest initial rollout - it could inspire optimism about its innovation potential.

«Investors are at a crossroads: volatility around launch day is almost guaranteed. The triumph or failure of the robotaxi depends entirely on the quality of implementation,» says Falkenron.

- Short-term oriented traders: be prepared for volatility. Historical trends indicate profit taking immediately after launch. Need to consider clear risk management in relation to critical launch milestones.

- Long-term investors: closely monitor safety incidents, regulatory feedback and consumer behavior. Early positive signals may indicate a strong investment opportunity. Conversely, setbacks can create chances to buy on drawdowns amid volatility. 

In particular, investors should monitor:

- Frequency and severity of remote operator interventions;

- Incident reports and regulatory response;

- The rate of service expansion beyond the initial geofence in Austin.

In 2019, Ilon Musk promised that a million robotaxis would be driving around cities by 2020. The deadline has long since passed, but not a single car has been put into service. In October 2024, Musk presented a futuristic Cybercab robot car without a steering wheel: mass production is scheduled to begin in 2026. The upcoming robotaxi launch in Texas still relies on the conventional Model Y, highlighting the gap between promise and fulfillment, notes Saxo Bank.

«Investors have grown accustomed to being wary of Musk's timeline: the robotaxi story has become a story of loud promises and delayed reality,» Falkenron wrote.